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Tuesday, January 13, 2009
McNabb a Hall of Famer?

Do you think Donovan McNabb will be a Hall of Fame quarterback?
Definitely.
Only if he wins a Super Bowl.
I don't know, but I would vote for him.
Absolutely not.
View results
Interesting conversation this morning on “Mike and Mike” on ESPN. Mike Greenberg was saying that Donovan McNabb is definitely a Hall of Fame quarterback right now. Mike Golic said he is close, knocking on the door, but not quite there.

Michael Barkann asked me the same question Monday night on “Daily News Live.” What I said, boiled down, is this: I think McNabb is the best quarterback in the history of the franchise but that it’s really hard to get into the Hall of Fame without winning a Super Bowl, that you really need superior stats if you are going to get in without winning and that McNabb’s aren’t at that level.

(I also said that Phil Simms, who won a Super Bowl, says he wouldn’t put himself into the Hall of Fame and that McNabb is in a similar statistical boat. I was wrong there. They played in very different philosophical systems but McNabb’s stats are much better.)

Anyway, on “Mike and Mike,” they compared his stats to those of Troy Aikman and Steve Young. There are a million stats out there, and I have picked out a handful. They reflect my personal measures of what I think is important if you are going to make a stat argument. Anyway:

Aikman…3 SB wins…5 10-win seasons…81.6 QB rating…1.17 TD/Int.

Young…1 SB win…5 10-win seasons…96.8 QB rating…2.17 TD/Int.

McNabb…0 SB wins…4 10-win seasons…85.9 QB rating…2.16 TD/Int.

When you look at it, Aikman is in because of the Super Bowls and I would vote for him every time. If you compare Young and McNabb – who always have been an interesting stylistic match as well – they are very similar players. Young completed a higher percentage of his passes. Young also had a much higher yards-per-attempt – a very instructive stat, but some of which was because he played with great receivers for longer than McNabb did.

They are very, very similar. There are differences, yes, but the biggest difference is the Super Bowl, which is what I said on DNL. You can like it or hate it but that’s just the way the system works.

It’s really a fascinating topic. McNabb is a fascinating player. Because he is the best quarterback the Eagles have ever had, and he also is a guy who was terrible in the middle of this season and played badly enough to get benched (even if Kevin Kolb against the Ravens was not a better option). I don’t think those are inconsistent positions, either. I think they reflect the facts at hand.

In the post-season, the stats have been unremarkable but McNabb has really played well, just commanding the important moments of the game. That’s kind of a nebulous concept, not all that measurable, except by the final score.

And in the end, that is how NFL quarterbacks are measured: by the final score.
Posted by Rich Hofmann @ 3:41 PM  Permalink | 113 comments
113
Comments   
Posted 11:41 AM, 01/13/2009
eaglephanatic
McNabb has benefitted by the defense for years -- and especially this year. He may have the best stats for an Eagles QB, but that is not saying much. Playoff perfomance is factored as much as seasonal performance. Overall, I can't see it at this point, but there are zealots out there that will insist on it, even in the media, despite anything else.
Posted 11:48 AM, 01/13/2009
Jim C.
After watching E. manning with no real go-to guy, my respect for McNabb has gone up even further. How mabny HofFers had a workhorse RB (Thurman, Emmitt) and/or a Hof receiver (Rice, A. Reed, Irvin)? If they were voting today, I think McNabb misses, if he continues to play where he is in the Pro Bowl and the NFC Championship every other year, for 4-5 more years, he gets to maybe 50/50 to get in. I think if he wins a SB, he is probably in. Class act, too.
Posted 11:51 AM, 01/13/2009
Bobphxville
I think if he wins one Super Bowl he is in. He's had relatively little support his whole career, and yet all he does is win...
Posted 11:55 AM, 01/13/2009
Jim C.
It's true the defense has been huge, clearly, but I think you also have to ackowledge they way the Eagles have been built. They do not spend money on star receivers (or often even on mediocre ones!), and they have never had a workhorse back. That's really huge. Plus, there has neber been a QB in the history of the NFL that was not judged largely by their won-loss record, and McNabb should not be the first. We saw Mac with T. Owens--imagine ten years with Rice! Or Irvin AND Emmett!
Posted 11:58 AM, 01/13/2009
Dierte
Look at the WRs/supporting cast each QB had...enough said
Posted 12:00 PM, 01/13/2009
DCExpat
Well, how does he measure against his peer class? You are looking at him v. HoF quarterbacks, which is valid. But how does he stack v. other quarterbacks in the league active during his career timeframe?
Posted 12:16 PM, 01/13/2009
albanykey
He wins a super bowl, then he is in, no doubt.
Posted 12:17 PM, 01/13/2009
DCExpat
I think he'd stack up pretty well--- Besides Manning (the good one) and Brady, who has had the sustained success of McNabb?
Posted 12:18 PM, 01/13/2009
Statman
At this point in his career, having not won a Super Bowl ("yet," I say hopefully), perhaps McNabb's closest comparison to a Hall-of-Fame QB is Jim Kelly. Kelly's career stats: 0 SB wins, 6 10-win seasons, 84.4 QB rating, 1.35 TD/INT ratio. Kelly got in not purely on winning (since the Bills never won a Super Bowl) and not purely on stats, but somewhere in-between: he was a very good QB who won a bunch of important games, just not the Super Bowl. The argument for McNabb would be similar at this point. I happen to think that while McNabb is 1-4 in conference championship games and Super Bowls, his 9-5 overall playoff record counts for something (it's better than Favre, Marino, and Peyton Manning, for example).
Posted 12:29 PM, 01/13/2009
lakebill
Brady and Manning are destined for the Hall. Warner has a shot of winning his third super bowl which would put him in the Hall. I don't see the third or fourth best quarterback of the era getting in the Hall without any Super Bowls. Just ask Jim Kelly.
Posted 12:31 PM, 01/13/2009
doorspj24
McNabb is also 9-5 in the playoffs. If he goes to 11-5 with a Super Bowl he's in the HOF easily. Manning is 7-8 in the playoffs. (3-8 if you take out the super bowl year)
Posted 12:32 PM, 01/13/2009
McNabbHOF
McNabb has the stats. He, as of right now, is in the top 35 all time in the 4 major statistical categories for Quarterbacks (attempts, completions, touchdowns, interceptions). If he hadn't been hurt so much, he'd already be in the top 25. Give him six more complete years (playing up to the same age Elway was when he retired), and he'll be in the top 10 in all major categories (top-5 in yards). He's the least intercepted QB per pass attempt in the history of the NFL. McNabb has the winning percentage. If the Eagles go 10-6 for the next six years (and give Brady and Peyton the same number of wins), McNabb will have more regular season wins (143) than every quarterback that ever lived, except for Manning, Favre, Elway, and Marino. McNabb has the postseason record. If we go to the Super Bowl and WIN, McNabb will be 11-5 in the postseason in his first 10 seasons. Elway, after season 10, was 6-6 as a starter in the postseason. McNabb has just as many Conference Championship Game appearences as Elway up to this point in their careers (5), and even though Elway made it to the Super Bowl on three occasions during this time span, compared to one for McNabb (so far), he played terribly in at least two of the three Super Bowls and did not come out with a Lombardi trophy. Every HOF QB of the modern era has played at least several years with at least one reciever who was at best a Hall of Famer himself and at worst a consistent 1,000 yard receiver. McNabb has had TO for one season and Kevin Curtis in another season. Thats' it! Brady is in a similar category, but now has Wes Welker and Randy Moss for at least a couple more seasons. Donovan McNabb is easily the third best QB of his generation, with Brady and Manning ahead of him and Kurt Warner right behind him. Give him 4-5 more complete seasons and a Super Bowl win, and he's a lock.
Posted 12:36 PM, 01/13/2009
coach1456
He doesn't need to win a Super Bowl to be a Hall of Fame QB. Rush Limbaugh had inside info that the NFL was 'desirous of having black QB's do well' and Warren Moon set the litmus test for that two years later. Moon never won anything, had as many losses as wins but got in on passing yards alone. Mcnabbs stats are inflated because the style of West Coast offence is high percentage, low risk. Passes dumped off to Westbrook who runs for 75 yards goes in the stats as passing yards. Completion ratios are high because of high number of short tosses. Interceptions are low because few passes are downfield. The was one talk of the NFL using a new formula to account for the skewed stats created by ALL west coast QB's who don't face the risk other QB' do but it was dropped after years of debate. Mcnabb is a good player, poor leader who has benifited greatly by his stay with the Eagles. Who really cares if he gets in? All Eagles fans want is a Super Bowl win.
Posted 12:36 PM, 01/13/2009
Statman
lakebill: Jim Kelly made the Hall of Fame in 2002
Posted 12:37 PM, 01/13/2009
Skena
He needs to keep his food down in the huddle. IF/When he screws up this latest playoff run he should not be admitted. The road to a football championship will never be easier!!If he screws this up he is done!
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About Rich Hofmann
Rich Hofmann arrived at the Daily News in 1980 for a job whose status was officially designated as "full-time, temporary." A senior at Penn at the time, he was hired to fill in on the copy desk during a staff illness. The notion of him covering the Eagles or being a columnist did not exist in anyone's imagination. It was supposed to be six weeks and out, but he never left. It is only one of the reasons why so many people have concerns about him as a potential house guest. Rich has blogged the postseasons of the Flyers and Eagles.

You can now follow The Idle Rich on Twitter.
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