Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
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Impediments to a Cliff Lee trade
Matt Gelb
It's Monday, and the last-place Phillies are officially open for business. There are some 26 hours until the trade deadline and just about every rumor you can imagine will be floated in that time.
In all likelihood, the Phillies will trade Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton and Juan Pierre. They are free agents this winter and have been scouted extensively by contending teams.
But Ruben Amaro Jr. is hardly predictable this time of year, as evidenced by an exchange with reporters Friday. The general manager was asked if he planned on keeping his expensive starting rotation — Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay — intact.
"Plans can change," Amaro said, "but that's what the plan is right now."
It was a sly answer from a man chock full of them. But that is Amaro's job this time of year; to broadcast misinformation and hide his true intentions as best he can.
Do the Phillies want to trade Lee? That remains to be seen. They are at least listening on offers, according to an ESPN.com report Monday. It would be stunning if the Phillies dealt Lee before 4 p.m. Tuesday.
A potential deal makes sense. The Phillies are lacking payroll flexibility and want to acquire younger, major-league-ready prosepcts. Lee, despite an off season and large contract, is a valuable trade chip.
There are plenty of reasons to be skeptical of something actually happening. Here they are, in no particular order:
1. Lee can be traded to only eight teams. Lee, like other Phillies stars, has a no-trade clause inserted in his contract. That clause, according to a source, allows the player to submit a list annually of 21 teams he cannot be traded to without consent.
The identity of the eight teams in play is unknown, but reports say the Texas Rangers are one option. A deal between Texas and Philadelphia is conceivable; the two discussed a potential Cole Hamels trade earlier this month. The Phillies covet third baseman Mike Olt and outfielder Leonys Martin.
The Rangers, meanwhile, are engaged in an arms race with Los Angeles. The Angels just acquired Zack Greinke and trail Texas by five games in the American League West. Texas is familiar with Lee; he pitched in a World Series for them. They have the prospects. They have money.
But what if the Rangers decide the price is too steep for Lee? Well, that leaves seven other unknown options. Any Lee trade would be quite complicated and it's difficult to see something materializing with a new suitor in 24 hours.
That, of course, does not preclude a trade this winter.
2. How many promises can be broken? Lee's wife, Kristen, famously told Amaro that he broke her heart the first time Lee was traded. It was rectified when Lee signed a five-year, $120 million deal. The family bought a condo in Rittenhouse and quite enjoys living in Philadelphia.
Indications are Lee was told he would not be dealt this summer. When Hamels signed his megadeal, he said one of the reasons for staying was to pitch with Lee and Halladay. Halladay said he spoke with Amaro, who told him he foresees keeping the rotation together.
Other players take note of such things. If Lee is twice traded by Amaro, especially after recent assurances he would not be, it will reflect negatively.
Then again, it is a business.
3. There is no good read on Halladay's health. Let's say the Phillies deal Lee only to discover in a few weeks Halladay's lat strain is actually a more serious issue. Halladay insists it is not. Charlie Manuel, though, left the door open to shutting down Halladay later this season. He will be 36 next May. Only 13 pitchers who started their careers in the last 30 years have thrown more innings than Halladay by age 35. If he finishes the season, it will be 10 pitchers.
Halladay will be a free agent after 2013 because he will not reach the conditions for a vesting fourth-year option. Even if Halladay is healthy and Lee is traded, that would leave Hamels and four question marks for 2014.
4. Lee is still owed a ton of money. Rival GMs will have to ask themselves this question: Would they sign a 34-year-old pitcher to a three-year, $87.5 million deal this winter? Lee is due about $7 million for the rest of 2012, $25 million per season from 2013-15, and has a $12.5 million buyout or $27.5 million option for 2016.
The Phillies would almost certainly have to eat money in any deal. If he's traded in the next 24 hours, he is owed at least $95 million. The more money the Phillies eat, the better the prospect haul. And the more money the Phillies eat, the less financial flexibility is achieved.
How willing are the Phillies to pay a significant amount to a pitcher who will not be throwing for them? The objective of the trade will have to be clear: Either the Phillies do it to become younger, or they do it for salary relief.
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This could all be a ploy to test the market now as due diligence for this winter. The Phillies must clear payroll somehow and nowhere is it written that it must be done immediately.
Lee is scheduled to start Tuesday against Stephen Strasburg in Washington. For now, his name is reduced to a trade rumor, but it's much more complicated than that.
Have a question? Send it to Matt Gelb's Mailbag.
If the Rangers really wanted Lee in the first place, but were beat out by the Phils while taking less money, then why can't they trade Lee to the Rangers now, especially if the Phils eat some of that money? Lee, Blanton, Victorino, Pierre and Pence should all be traded. But the only way you truly start over by getting rid of all these players is to bring Sandberg in as your manager. Give him the few months remaining to help evaluate the roster.— beegal99- I have confidence the Management will do the right thing. No, Really I do.— sillybilly
- just a little follow up
2009 25 players with 100 or more rbi's. Howard 1st.
2010 24 players, Howard 12th
2011 17 players, howard 6th.
obviously: he won't be there 2012.
my point is that there isn't even an average of 1 player per team that accomplishes this feat. So it is a number that tells us a lot about a players talent.
If you look at the lists most years: there aren't many players, if any, making less than 10 million. It costs money to have players that produce runs. Until he doesn't produce 100 runs ---not due to injury, but daily production---then I'll assume his contract is overrated. until then, I'm not convinced. yes, it is a significant percentage of the 176 million. but it was relative going rate for a run producer at the time, and there is no salary cap. we have28 million coming off this year with free agents, 36 next year with utley and doc (and more with pence).
The most absurd comments are the emotional ones I read every once in a while that it will take until 2020 for the team to be competitive again. nonsense.
— kgood - Chase Headley is a nice addtion and certainly better than Polanco, but he is no Mike Olt, and he is never going to be an All-Star.
however, there are a few positive things I like about Headly: (I live in San Diego)
1) fairly durable and only 28 and fields his postion quite well at 3B.
2) Some power, because anyone who can hit 12-15 homers at Petco Park annually can easily hit 20+ at Citizens Bank...he is a model of consistancy.
3) cheap contract and good locker room guy...Charlie will like Headly alot, because is his also a switch hitter with some decent speed; this guy steals bases.
but, the Padres like Chase alot and do not need the prospects as badly as the Phillies, so don't expect them to give him up for nothing.— sdeens - Gelb seems pretty confident that the Phillies will make a lot of moves. As far as Lee goes, the reason is simple: He makes too much money. No one wants a $25 million a year pitcher who can only win 1 game in half a season. It may be all his fault but then again giving up runs and gopher balls in the 7th or 8th inning of games doesn't help either. Lee is a strange guy because he's so hot and cold and when he's cold, he doesn't seem to really care about it.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- @Lazyboy - I disagree - RBI numbers have more of a corralation to a player's power numbers, and Howard has been one of the best extra base hit men since he's been in the majors. Last year, there were only 17 players with more than 100 RBIs (and 5 teams had more than 1 guy).
In 2010, only 25 (with 4 teams having 2 or more). In 2009, 28 players (8 teams with multiple 100 RBI guysand in 2008 there were 29 (8 teams). In only one of those years did any other Phillie exceed 100 RBIs - Chase Utley in 2008 (Werth had 99 in 2009). So if Howard's RBI totals were due to the fact he played on a good/great offensive team, wouldn't there be another player or two from this lineup on the list?— dankil13 - No need to blow up the team. let's get healthy, figure out if anyone from the minors can fill some needs at the big show and go from there. I'd love to finally give Dom Brown some time to play. Anyone in the system at 3rd at all?— nyphillyguy
- Pence and Victorino leaving opens up a Michael Bourn free agent signing. Dominic Brown ( coming cheap ) to replace Pence.
Lee leaving ( to Texas ) gives us a third baseman and an outfielder for the future at little or no cost for a few years - hard to argue with that, assuming they don't have to eat too much of Lee's contract.
It was a shame that the Phillies never tried Pence at first base when Howard was out. Really would have liked to see how he handled it.
Would not mind seeing Victorino staying and playing left field.
Victorino, Bourn and Dominic Browm would be a fast outfield as well as fast on the bases.
— candidly - I would not trade Lee for one reason-"Halladay"-i believe there is a greater than 50-50 chance-he is pretty DONE!!!!!— flyers11
- Keep in mind Chase Headly plays in San Diego, a pitchers park. His OPS over the last 4 years is 150 points higher on the road than at home.— VitoCorleone
- Changing the coaching staff does not require any help from anyone. Since Manuel is still the manager, we can assume that he and all of his coaches will be here for the rest of the year at least. Manuel is the epitome of a "players manager". The players are running the team and they know it. Of course they want to stay and continue playing for Manuel. He'll give them whatever they want and never hold them accountable for anything. And any prospects that Amaro does get will die on the bench because Manuel won't play them.
— TexColorado - Teams get old and apathetic unless you mix some talented rookies in with the veterans. The Phillies organization has allowed this team to get old and complacent. The message the Phillies veterans sent during the Braves series was: we don't care anymore.— Gnip Gnop
- I think the chance of Lee being traded now is about 10%. Most of this talk is just media hype.— laser5
- If the Phillies trade Victorino, Piere and Pence, who the heck is going to play the outfield? I would re-sign Victorino for a reduced salary and trade Pence.— fischman
- This is a joke right? People act like there's a chance Lee could get traded. See number 4 on the list. He's way overpaid and no team in the world is taking on that contract even if they didn't have to give up a thing. If nothing else this should open someones eyes that bobo the talking basset hound doesn't have a clue what he's doing. When no teams want the guys you signed because they are all overpaid, guess what? your gm sucks.— lazyboy
