Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
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Forget Hamels -- Victorino might be the toughest contract call
David Murphy
Let's face it - the Cole Hamels situation is relatively straight forward. You cannot look at his performance over the past five seasons and the free agent market over the past few offseasons and not conclude that he is worth at least $20 million per year of six years on the open market. He is an elite pitcher, and he has every reason to expect that he will be paid like one. The decision is a philosophical one -- how much money is a team willing to commit to a position that can see a career end with one shoulder injury?
Shane Victorino is another story. His career is like an ink blot -- you can see what you want. The only center fielders with a higher OPS over the last three seasons are Matt Kemp (.863), Curtis Granderson (.831), Jacoby Ellsbury (.830), Andrew McCutchen (.822) and Torii Hunter (.815). Victorino checks in with an .800.
As we noted in today's column, Victorino showed last year that he has the potential of producing a huge walk-year performance.
After the 2007 season, Torii Hunter signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Angels. In the three seasons leading up to his free agency, Hunter hit .279/.335/.487 with 73 home runs and 53 stolen bases. Compare those numbers to the ones Victorino has posted over the last three seasons: .277/.347/.454, 45 home runs, 78 stolen bases. Victorino will be entering his 32-year-old season when he hits free agency, the same age Hunter was when he signed his monster deal. While Hunter's production slipped last season, he still has a solid .279/.349/.465 line with averages of 22 home runs and 13 steals in the first four years of the deal.
Granderson, meanwhile, has a $13 million option for 2013 that is almost certain to be exercised by the Yankees. He too will be entering his 32-year-old season.
Ellsbury and McCutchen are both rising stars who would stray more to the Matt Kemp end of the spectrum than Hunter and Granderson.
Which brings us to Victorino, and the question of where he belongs in the hierarchy of center fielders. Is he in the class of the five players above him in OPS? Does he deserve to be paid like a centerpiece player?
1) What is the minimum the Phillies should expect to pay?
The absolute minimum would have to be a contract similar to the three-year, $31.5 million deal that the Rockies gave Michael Cuddyer this offseason.
The comparison over the last three years:
Cuddyer: .276/.341/.465, 66 HRs, 24 SBs
Victorino: .277/.347/.454, 45 HRs, 78 SBs
The key difference is that Victorino plays a premium defensive position.
2) What is the maximum the Phillies should expect to pay?
Kemp is in a class all by himself, so throw him out. Next up is Carl Crawford, who signed a seven-year, $142 million deal with the Red Sox heading into his 30-year-old season. The numbers over the three years leading up to his free agency:
Crawford: .297/.349/.454, 42 HRs, 132 SBs
Similar power, similar on base, better contact and more steals.
By the numbers, the best comparison is Hunter. But Hunter signed his contract after the 2007 season, so it is tough to use him as a market comparison.
3) Making some sense. . .
If I'm Victorino, I am making the case that I am worth a five-year deal, which would run through my 36-year-old season. Thirty-six appears to be the age at which most teams are comfortable guaranteeing money. The Tigers signed Prince Fielder through the age of 36. The Yankees did the same with Teixeira. Carl Crawford? 36. Jason Bay? 36. Ryan Howard? 36. Matt Holliday and Jayson Werth both signed beyond their 36-year-old seasons.
The target Average Annual Value is where things become open to interpretation. Minimum, I would think, is the $13 million that the Yankees are likely to pay Granderson. Maximum, I would think, is the $18 million per season that the Angels paid Hunter.
Victorino and Michael Bourn will be the top two center fielders on the market. But center field is a position that is in demand. Victorino can also play right field. And he has the skill set of a lead-off hitter. Among the teams that could be looking for that type of player? The Yankees, for one. The Nationals, for another. Perhaps the Marlins. If you are the Phillies, you have to anticipate that there will be a significant market for Victorino, barring an injury or a down season.
If you take the mid-point of Granderson and Hunter you get $15.5 million salary.
Is Victorino worth a five-year, $77.5 million deal? What if he was willing to sign right now for five years and $65 million, which would mean an AAV of $13 million per year?
Assuming it takes an AAV of about $20 million to sign Hamels, a five-year, $65 million deal for Victorino would leave the Phillies with $144 million committed to 10 players for 2013. That doesn't include an arbitration raise for Hunter Pence that will likely be at least $13 million. So that is $157 million for 11 players. Carlos Ruiz's $5 million option? $162 million for 12 players while still needing a third baseman. It is certainly workable, particularly if the Phillies can back Jonathan Papelbon up with six relievers who are all earning close to the veteran minimum. As we have pointed out before, going over the luxury tax is not exactly detrimental for a big market club.
The options for replacing Victorino are hardly plentiful. Maybe John Mayberry Jr. has a big year and emerges as an option. Bourn is the only player similar to Victorino available on the free agent market (B.J. Upton is probably the third-biggest name behind those two).
The worst-case scenario, at least fiscally, is Mayberry failing to establish himself as an everyday player and Victorino having a huge season. At that point, the free agent market could easily view Victorino as an $18-million-per-year player, leaving the Phillies with a very expensive decision to make: Let Victorino walk and enter 2013 with big question marks in 2/3rds of their outfield, or pay a premium price.
Get Hamels done now. Worry about Victorino later. Love Victorino but he is far more replaceable than Hamels.— FetchDixon- I agree fetch, Hamels is far more important. I hate to commit a lot of years and money to a 32 year old whose game is based on speed. Not saying he's a guarantee to break down, but once he does his values really plummet since everything he does, albeit great for us right now, is based on him having healthy legs.— regassert6
- Agreed Hamels is the top priority. If I were the Phillies I'd be VERY tempted to just let Victorino walk and take the type A compensation, especially if Mayberry and Brown have good seasons. Mayberry showed last year he is capable of playing CF and if the phils have a strength in terms of position players in the minors it is OF, that 13-15 million can be better spent elsewhere, 3rd base comes to mind even if it isn't until the season after next that you spend it.— mdb20
- Well, it depends on how you look at it guys. You can say that the strongest part of our minor league system is starting pitching, mostly at AA and if Vance Worley puts numbers close to his 2011 numbers, and one or two of the Baby Aces keep climbing the latter, it wouldn't be the end of the world to let Hamels walk. Remember, we still have two of the best pitchers in baseball under contract for a while. That being said, the minute the Phillies resigned Rollins to a most likely 4 year deal, it became apparent to me that it would be difficult to resign Hamels, Victorino and Pence. One or two could be gone. IMO, RAJ put himself into a corner by resigning Rollins. I don't agree that Victorino would be easier to replace. As Murph pointed out, only a handful of CF have better numbers than Vic and none will be free agents and even if they were, they still need to pay them handsomely. So why not stay with somebody you already know, unless you can somehow get McCuthen (maybe) or Ellsbury (very unlikely), at the cost of depleting the farm system even more. The hope is that Mayberry keeps improving and can slide to CF to open LF for Brown, but that's asking a lot out of two young players. There is also 3B to worry about after this season.— EL Zorro
- What are you smoking? Please pass it around! Are you serious by saying Let Hamels walk! What a DOPE! — AXP33
- I also disagree with your observations about Cole. He's one of the best lefties and homegrown, plus we all know RAJ loves pitching. I would bet the house that Cole gets a big deal before the years done. I do agree with your comments about Shane, plus all the intangibles he brings, clubhouse guy, great work ethic and a class act, not to mention he hustles every play and plays great defense in center. I was never real high on Werth and he proved me/us right, but i would really miss Shane.... — TexasYankee
- I think the message Ruben sent by signing Rollins is that the organization will definitely exceed the salary-cap, and as a cost of doing business similar to other elite teams, such the Red Sox, and Yankees Pay the price that will guarantee the interest, and loyalty of the millions of fans that have not only sold out CBP 2 years running, but have captured record TV viewers as well.
If you've seen the projections for TV revenue, then you can surely understand the fortune that awaits this organization when they sign their next Comcast contract, or as many have speculated, produce their own network.— Phiggles - A's 3rd basemen injured.....any chance a Polanco&Blanton deal goes down?— ATrucksess
- It is going to take $180 to $190 million to make 2013 and beyond work. There is a real possibility of $200 million if the club wants to sit atop of the NL. Remember, there is still a need at third and second with nobody in the minors to come up. Sounds like FA to me. A trade involving Dominic Brown/John Mayberry/Hunter Pence for a real 3B or 2B, (Chase needs to show a lot not to be labled done) is the only other possibility. The minor leauge staff needs to stay put to provide some comfort. My dream outfield would be FA Michael Bourn, Hunter Pence and John Mayberry. Get a 3B and 2B, (if Chase is done) and the lineup is set. These guys can be there every year just like the Braves have been for almost 20.— mattbagley
- The biggest misnomer about Victorino is that he bases he game on speed, ala Juan Pierre or Jose Reyes. Speed freaks don't post an .800+ OPS. Just because he's fast doesn't mean he can't mash. And to his credit, he doesn't go into those "I'M BABE RUTH!" moments that J-Roll has a couple dozen times a year.— vinni
- Can't keep everybody. My hope is that Mayberry flourishes and then takes over CF for a couple of years with Brown in left and Pence in right.— willthethrill11
- I think that if Brown shows any consistency during spring, The Phillies will try to move him.
Oh never mind, Ed Wade got canned from Houston— Phiggles - good thing RAJ is a lot smarter than our beat writers. No way RAJ signs Shane for that kind of money. Victorino will be hard pressed to get JRoll money and years. I like Shane, but I got better things to do with 15 million.— LJ14
- Victorino has always been a bit of an enigma. I thought after 2008, it looked like his game stopped developing and then the Phillies gave him his current contract which seemed a bit much. But then 2011 came around and Victorino played great. But he still doesn't fit the mold of a superstar player. I'd like to see another year of hustle and intensity before resigning him so we at least know that's the player he's become.— AvoidSundanceVacations
- Victorino is a very nice player, but his career does seem to be a bit "all over the place." I can't envision him being a $15 million a year player.— dblankj
