Rich Hofmann: Eagles offense: The half and the half-not

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THE NUMBERS HAVE tumbled, like water over the rocks. Not much more than a year ago, it was possible to write a column about how the notion that Donovan McNabb and the Eagles couldn't win a close game at the end was really an unfair rap. (I know, because I wrote just such a column after the Eagles lost that shootout last year in Dallas.) Now, though, it is entirely fair.

According to the people at footballoutsiders.com, the average NFL quarterback during a period they studied brought his team back 41 percent of the time when his team trailed by eight or fewer points in the fourth quarter. McNabb was hanging at 39 percent for his career, essentially the league average, after that Dallas game. But he and the Eagles' offense have now failed eight consecutive times since that game.

Eagles´ Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Leonard Weaver sit on the bench in the closing minute of the loss to Dallas Sunday.
RON CORTES / Staff photographer
Eagles' Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick and Leonard Weaver sit on the bench in the closing minute of the loss to Dallas Sunday.

McNabb and this offense are no longer essentially average. In close games, they are well below.

(Oh, you've heard?)

They confound you because there are days when McNabb and the Eagles look so good. Those are the days when they have a big talent advantage, or the days when Andy Reid and Marty Mornhinweg win the schematic battle. This offense front-runs like Secretariat.

It is the rest of the time, though, that leaves you groping for an explanation beyond the idea that they simply can't handle the close moments.

"It's kind of unique," Mornhinweg said. "I believe last year we were one of the very best in 2-minute, before the half, [and] I think this year we're one or two in 2-minute, before the half. We need to be as good at the end of the game in those situations as we are at the end of the half.

"Championship teams score a lot of points at the end of the half, so that's a good thing there and we need to be as good at the end of games."

Mornhinweg is a technician, and a fine one. He and Reid draw up some great stuff. He looks at it like a technician, like somebody looking at a machine, that it functions well in the pressure at the end of the half so it should be able to function well in the pressure of being behind in the fourth quarter.

But it hasn't translated. The situations have not been equivalent. Still, Mornhinweg presses on.

"We just need to be a little bit better, a little bit sharper at the end of the game," he said. "I've looked at all that in the offseason and during this season. We just have to play a little bit better late in the game."

(Oh, you've noticed?)

Most years lately, the Eagles' offense has been good in the first quarter and at its very best in the second quarter, and it is true this year, too. But it is true on an entirely different scale.

The Eagles are on a pace to smash franchise records as far as first-half scoring is concerned. Consider: They have already scored more points in the eight first halves this season than they scored in 16 first halves in 2005, the year we all received an advanced degree in sports hernias.

Even when you take out their three returns for touchdowns and limit it to strictly offensive numbers, the Eagles have averaged 6.8 offensive points per game in the first quarter and 10.4 in the second quarter. But then, after halftime, nothing - 4.5 points per game in the third quarter this season and 3.1 in the fourth quarter.

Now, some of it undoubtedly is because they just dialed things back and played keepaway with the big leads they held earlier in the season against some of the dregs of the league. As Mornhinweg said, "I think you have to look at it in depth, just a little bit, and I have. There are a couple of games there where I shut it down and there are a lot of reasons for that, so that's part of it. Then, we're getting into making up reasons and we need to get better that. Yeah, it's just that simple."

Some of what Mornhinweg says is true. Some of it is, as he says, just making up excuses. Because in the three losses - to New Orleans, Oakland and Dallas - which were all games where the Eagles were obviously trying to the end, they actually did a bit worse than their average: 4.5 points per game in the third quarter, only 2 points per game in the fourth quarter.

Every one of their numbers tumbles as the game progresses. Per Stats Inc., in their first 10 carries of the game, the Eagles average 4.9 yards per carry. In their next 10 carries, it plummets to 2.8 yards per carry. For McNabb, in his first 20 pass attempts of the game, he has completed 62 percent for 8.8 yards per attempt and 10 touchdowns. After that, he has completed 51 percent for 4.2 yards per attempt and no touchdowns.

Down, down, down the numbers go. And as they enter the part of the schedule that has stood out all along - four road games in 5 weeks, starting Sunday in San Diego - it is a trend that needs to reverse immediately.

"Normally, even the really good teams, and I think we are and we'll see down the stretch here, even really good teams need a come-from-behind [win] once or twice a season," Mornhinweg said. "Some do it even more, so that's a key."

(Oh, you've noticed?)

Send e-mail to

hofmanr@phillynews.com,

or read his blog, The Idle Rich, at

http://go.philly.com/theidlerich.

For recent columns go to

http://go.philly.com/hofmann.

 

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Posted 03:24 AM, 11/13/2009
Yes Grandson. Some guy who had no heart, they named him McLoser.
I love that picture, it tells you EVERYTHING you need to know. Vick & Weaver are sitting on the bench staring at the field, frustrated & unsatisfied after the teams terrible performance led to a loss to Dallas. While Low Throw McBlow is sitting on the bench sleeping, dreaming of Unicorns, OBVIOUSLY, without a care in the world. And his apologists wonder why so many people are SICK & TIRED of him. Idiots. PLAY KOLB, END OF STORY.
Posted 06:01 AM, 11/13/2009
lonewolf 10
rich,that picture says that don's heart is not in it,but most of us knew that for years,,don's disappearing act in the forth quarter been going on since 2005,finally the sports pundits are calling him to the carpet,,,,even the apologists are dwindling they went from the majority to the minority,,or their hiding in the basement hoping for a forth qtr comeback lolol,,,there's no doubt,the KEVIN KOLB era should have started,but big red has to man up,rich,just as i predicted this is don's last season,,,this game in SD could get real ugly here's my pick:the chargers 30 the birds 13,,the calls for mcnoheart's end will dominate the sports pages and sports talk shows next week,book it..........wolf.
Posted 06:12 AM, 11/13/2009
Clem
Of course he isn't sleeping, Grandson. If you look at ALL the stats in the article, to me it sounds like poor play calling and lack of guts to call big yardage plays at crunch time. I have always felt that Reid et all have always been a staff that can't make adjustments at halftime and are almost always outcoached the second half of ball games. While everyone has complained about fat boy calling more run plays (and I definitely agree) I wouldve prefered a more successful plan the second hal of games. Reid will never win the big one. The players get close in spite of him.
Posted 06:28 AM, 11/13/2009
dont-take-it-personal
I keep hearing the notion of let Kolb play. I guess you didn't see the baltimore game. Yeah he won a game against the chiefs. A high school quarterback can beat the chiefs. I saw him play against the saints as well. Kolb had a lot of yards, but 3ints. Once the saints got a big lead, they played a prevent defense and Kolb racked up most of his yards then, and still came out with a loss. The coaching and management stinks. We had 4th and 1 and 4th and goal problems forever and we continue to draft a rb at 5ft10 200lbs. How about a rb at 6ft3 240lbs. Management continues to fool people saying this is the best roster Mcnabb has ever had. BS! Joe Montana was a good qb, but he had a Roger Craig. First rb to have 1000yrs rushing and receiving in the same season. He had a guy by the name of Jerry Rice, John Taylor, Their te was good #84, I forget his name, etc. They ran the ball. It kept the defense honest, and set up a play action pass. Reid calls pass, pass, pass. When TO was here (superbowl year) Mcnabb had his best statistical year. About 3500yrds 35td and 10ints. We don't have a TO. Run the ball. They pay millions for a Jason Peters and Stacy Andrews. Both of them look close to 400lbs, but Reid continues to pass. Run the ball! Control the clock. Reid is probably getting high with his sons! Pass-pass-pass only works on John Madden on the x-box. Once you put double coverage on D-Jackson, that's it for the offense. Pass-pass-pass hasn't worked for Reid the last 10 years. STUBBORN. GET RID OF REID. LET MARTY TAKE OVER!!!
Posted 06:54 AM, 11/13/2009
garcia7
McNab does not lead. Reid cannot gameplan or call plays. Time for Kolb and a new coach. The guy from Denver wouldn't be bad. Time to trade Vick and give Larry Johnson a chance. How about Vick to the Jets for Lito. These moves would just get this team to the playoffs. Anyone thinking of a Super Bowl this year is an idiot.
Posted 07:10 AM, 11/13/2009
JamesJ
Excuse #2,648 for McNabb's poor play
Posted 07:17 AM, 11/13/2009
MG44
Sometimes, sports stats can get too "inside," but my biggest takeaway from these stats is that the other team - in most cases - is making much better halftime (or other in-game) adjustments than the Eagles.
Posted 07:19 AM, 11/13/2009
Voytas
dont-take-it-personal........I disagree, it's mostly Low Throw McBlow's fault. He would rather say he runs the plays that are called instead of standing up to Reid, learning how to call an audible, etc. I have no problem with him dancing for the boss, but dancing is one thing and dancing while looking like the village idiot is another. Low Throw McBlow is the square peg Reid is trying to fit in the round hole. The square peg is a wannabe pocket passer and the round hole is the west coast offense. No heart, no clue, no hope and no ring with Low Throw McBlow.
Posted 07:27 AM, 11/13/2009
Southern0160
I really can't add much to this. All these guys have hit on pretty much the same thing. Why is it we can see it and they can't? This should be a much better football team and close games shouldn't get away like that. McDoink-Doink hasn't got what it takes. And as for Andy Reid, I haven't liked him since day-1. The most over-rated coach in NFL history.
Posted 07:28 AM, 11/13/2009
Phil Checchia
This has to be Mc Nabb's last year... Doesn't it.... Jeff, Jeff doesn't it. Please Jeff, Mc Nabb will not win super bowl for you so you can brag to your buddies from Boston.
Posted 07:36 AM, 11/13/2009
Dierte
It's a mix of everything, erratic QB play, terrible play calls, bad coaching (never an adjustment AT ALL during games when things aren't working, lack of discipline, injuries, etc. People that blame the issues on a single thing don't know much about football or sports in general. The Eagles have enough talent to blow teams out if they get the chance, but their not a very good football team right now. We all know some people have personal agendas against McNabb, Reid, Marty, or whoever, and those people aren't even worth listening too so just ignore them. And Voytas, im sure when your boss looks at you, and tells you what to do, you go out and chang those plans? I didn't think so...I realize audibles are part of the game, and McNabb does call audibles (Weaver's TD run against the Giants was an audible) but he doesn't have the authority to change the whole game plan. What part of that don't you understand. Honestly, have you ever played football before?
Posted 07:40 AM, 11/13/2009
Seed
An article dedicated to offense with no mention of O-line; that tells you the analytical ability of the author. Ask the greatest QB, RB, and WR in the league who they think contributed most to their success, they all will answer O-line. O-line determines 75% of the offensive production; rest of the players contribute 25%. Reid spend more time trying to get Shawn back to his O-line than he did with anyother single item. A pen pusher with twisted mind wants to sell hate; he is not trying to make the team better through his analysis!
Posted 07:43 AM, 11/13/2009
BIGWILLIE3367
Donovan has always been a choker. I've felt this way for years. He'll never be a Champion.
Posted 07:43 AM, 11/13/2009
mick314
Probable loss to SD should convince Banner & Co that the Kolb era is upon us. McNabb leadership skills and pressure play performance are obvious and perpetual flaws. Coach is so pathetic he loses track of time, time outs, substitutions and red flag tosses. How bad is that ? He is a master of only ONE thing, monolithic press conferences. Times yours.
Posted 07:43 AM, 11/13/2009
4thand10
McNabb is not Peyton, Andy is not Bill. Not even close!!!!!
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