Jerardi: NCAA Tournament selection committee does better job than last year
After making a mess of the 2016 bracket, but somehow ending up with the two teams that played the best in an epic final, the tournament selection committee was much more logical in its at-large selections, seeding and regional placement this year, with a few exceptions.
After making a mess of the 2016 bracket, but somehow ending up with the two teams that played the best in an epic final, the tournament selection committee was much more logical in its at-large selections, seeding and regional placement this year, with a few exceptions.
According to committee chairman Mark Hollis, Duke made the biggest jump from when it first started putting the field together on Wednesday to when the bracket was revealed late Sunday afternoon. ESPN analyst Jay Bilas said winning the Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament is harder than getting to the Final Four and I agree.
Duke was a No. 4 seed when the committee began deliberating. After beating Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina and Notre Dame over four days, the Blue Devils zoomed all the way to a No. 2 seed, No. 7 on the 68-team S-curve.
The committee put Duke in the East where the top seed just happens to be No. 1 overall Villanova, setting up a potentially epic March 26 regional final at Madison Square Garden.
Duke put on an offensive clinic in the ACC Tournament, scoring 328 points on 280 possessions, a terrific 1.17 points per possession against quality competition.
Villanova's defense in the Big East Tournament was nearly as dominant as Duke's offense, holding St. John's, Seton Hall and Creighton to 180 points on 197 possessions, an excellent .914 points per possession.
Villanova is one of just four teams in the top 20 in offensive and defensive efficiency. Duke's offense is national championship worthy, its defense barely in the top 40.
The four No. 1 seeds have been fairly obvious for weeks - Villanova, Kansas, North Carolina and Gonzaga. The 2 line, with three power conference tournament winners (Duke, Kentucky and Arizona) and Louisville, is every bit as strong as the 1 line.
Beside Villanova, the other top-20 offense/defense teams are Gonzaga, Kentucky and Wichita State, which brings me to the biggest seeding mistake the committee made.
Wichita is far better than a 10 seed, which is not fair to the Shockers or to Atlantic 10 regular-season champion Dayton, its first-round opponent. It is also not fair to Kentucky, which is a potential second-round opponent for the Shockers. Wichita is a six-point favorite over Dayton.
The committee is supposedly going to include analytics in its deliberations next year. That really needs to happen so it doesn't miss so badly on a team like Wichita again.
The ACC had four of the top-10 teams on the S-curve, UNC (3), Duke (7), Louisville (8) and Florida State (10).
If the committee had gone strictly by that curve, Louisville would have been No. 2 in the East and Duke No. 2 in the Midwest where the Blue Devils could have been looking at a regional final against Kansas in Kansas City. Guess they figured Coach K would be yelling louder than Rick Pitino if that scenario played out.
Unlike last year, when regular-season champions or co-champions only won 11 of 31 conference tournaments, those champions were 20 of 32 this year, including the first Ivy League Tournament champion, Princeton. That suggests a stronger 68-team field from top to bottom.
There are six teams (Villanova, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Wichita State, SMU and Middle Tennessee) in the tournament with 30 wins or more and each won a regular-season and conference tournament.
Major injuries to star players and key players on good teams have been a season-long theme. It happened again in conference tournaments, Oregon losing a great two-way player in Chris Boucher with a left knee injury and Minnesota losing shooter Akeem Springs with an Achilles' injury in his right ankle.
Villanova has somehow overcome the loss of Phil Booth to a left knee injury and ineligible Omari Spellman to have another incredible season. This team's offense, by the numbers, is actually better than last year's although it can't possibly be any more efficient than the incredible offense the Wildcats showed in five of their six NCAA games last year.
What the Wildcats potentially have in their way on the road to Phoenix for the Final Four is some really good defensive teams (Wisconsin, Virginia and Florida), high-powered offensive teams (Duke, Virginia Tech) and well-balanced teams such as Baylor or SMU. The good news is that they only have to beat three of them, not all of them. The toughest matchups would be, in order, after the Wildcats crush the winner of Mount Saint Mary's-New Orleans, Wisconsin, Virginia and Duke. SMU or Baylor in a regional final would be no easy game either.
The Villanova seniors are 128-16, the country's best record over the last four seasons. If some team is going to keep the Wildcats out of this Final Four, it better play brilliantly and prepare to play all-out for 40 minutes - anything less than that won't be enough against a team whose toughness may be even more critical to its success than its considerable talent.
@DickJerardi