Hayes: Sixers should keep all three centers for now
DeMARCUS COUSINS was always a talented scorer, but he became the top scoring big man in the NBA the past two seasons, his sixth and seventh. Anthony Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2012, was a revelation almost as soon as he took the court, but he is a significantly better (and healthier) player in this, his fifth season, than in his first four.
DeMARCUS COUSINS was always a talented scorer, but he became the top scoring big man in the NBA the past two seasons, his sixth and seventh. Anthony Davis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2012, was a revelation almost as soon as he took the court, but he is a significantly better (and healthier) player in this, his fifth season, than in his first four.
DeAndre Jordan needed five seasons to develop into a defensive predator and rebounding machine. Similarly, Rudy Gobert, who missed 21 games as he emerged last season, has now fully arrived in his fourth.
The point: Young centers take years to reach their potential.
The relevance: The Sixers have three young centers: Nerlens Noel, Joel Embiid and Jahlil Okafor. They control all three for at least one more season.
The reality: They have no idea how good any of them will be. They have no idea how durable they will be. They have no idea how valuable they might become. At no point this season did they have a serious chance of reaching the playoffs, and had even less of a chance of winning a playoff series, regardless of what type of player they added to their lineup by trading one of the Big Three.
The deadline is Feb. 23. Why consider trading any of them?
Frankly, it seems foolish to consider trading any of them at any point in the past or the near future.
"Each of them brings something elite to the table," Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo recently told the Daily News.
Each could be a long-term star. Each warrants a lot more time to mature.
Do the Sixers really believe this?
Embiid is untouchable, but Noel wants out. The Sixers appear more eager to trade Okafor, a second-year scoring savant but an indifferent defender and rebounder who was linked to trade talks with Chicago and, now, with New Orleans. It might sound enticing to bring back point guard Jrue Holiday. It might bring relief to the region to get rid of Okafor, who seems bent on being the antithesis of Embiid. But would it be wise?
The Sixers now have a gilt-edged insurance policy for Embiid. Why forsake it? They seem to realize how much there is to gain if – when – Okafor and Noel blossom.
"Every player, regardless of position, reaches their peak performance at different times, so the evaluation period can vary," Colangelo said. "Big men do generally take longer."
How much longer?
"I'm saying at least four years. Maybe it's later," Sixers coach Brett Brown said a few days ago. "It could even be six."
Every big man?
"Joel has obviously thrown water on that argument," Colangelo acknowledged.
Well, yes and no.
Certainly, Embiid has shown an astounding ability to wed his size and athleticism with new and emerging skills. This ability is all the more astounding considering Embiid did not play organized basketball until he was 15; played only one college season; and missed his first two NBA seasons with injuries. It seems unreal that he averages 20.2 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks while saddled with medical restrictions of first 24 minutes per game, then 28.
Embiid isn't the first just-add-water star center of the modern era. Hakeem Olajuwon and Patrick Ewing put up similar numbers. David Robinson was better than all of them. Karl-Anthony Towns might have changed the paradigm for centers with his rookie season; he, like Embiid, can hit three-pointers.
Still, for all of their instant excellence, Ewing, the Admiral and the Dream were appreciably better after their fourth season. Imagine, then, how good Towns might become, or Embiid.
Or, more to the point, Noel or Okafor.
Consider: Noel recently has devised a method by which his heinous jump shot somehow enters the cylinder 43.5 percent of the time, a 10 percent improvement from last season. Most remarkably, entering Monday he had hit 11 of 21 shots from outside of 15 feet, or 52.3 percent. He hit 19 of 104 last season, 18.3 percent. If he can produce these results over a full season, or, better yet, two, he would become an enormous asset; almost untradeable because he might be invaluable.
Similarly: What if Okafor suddenly becomes infected with a desire to rebound and defend?
Of course, Okafor's uninterest in defense might be rooted in disability. He missed the last 23 games of last season and six preseason games with a knee injury that seems to continually hinder him. Knee soreness cost him a game Saturday.
Embiid on Monday missed his sixth straight game and his ninth of the last 10 after he hyperextended his left knee Jan. 20. He seems likely to miss his 10th of 11 on Wednesday. Noel did not play his entire rookie season because he was recovering from a left-knee injury suffered in college. He also missed the first 23 games of this season after surgery on the same knee.
The injury bug should not be alarming. Many experts believe very young players, whose bodies develop through their mid-20s, are more susceptible to injury when shocked by the demands of an NBA career. Embiid and Noel are 22. Okafor is 21. Still, they get hurt an awful lot.
Brown, once the coach for the Australian national team, charted the effectiveness of international big men and found that they peak on the court when that physical development is finished.
"They were men. Their heyday in general is from 28 to 32," Brown said. "Sometimes, even later."
The NBA trade deadline is Feb. 23.
If they're smart – and they seem to be – the real trade deadline for the Sixers' big men should be years away.
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