DN staff picks winner of Alabama vs. Clemson

THE CRYSTAL BALL has been viewed and tea leaves have been studied. The Daily News sports staff presents its predictions:

Nick Saban has done just about everything at the college level. He's won five national titles, produced enough All-Americas to start his own pro team, and even got to make a cameo in a Sandra Bullock movie.

But he's never won a title with a true freshman quarterback. No shame there; neither did Bear Bryant, Joe Paterno or Bobby Bowden. Saban's also never won a championship a week after whacking his offensive coordinator.

Not a lot of money has been won betting against the Tide this season. Their 14-0 record includes 10-3 against the spread. There was no line for a late-season layup against Tennessee-Chattanooga. The Tide have covered seven of the last eight.

But Clemson has been pointing to this game since losing to Alabama in last year's championship. The Tigers rolled Ohio State in the semifinals while Alabama's offense frequently sputtered against Washington.

I'd happily take the touchdown Vegas is offering Clemson, and would try to see if Dick Jerardi would go in halfsies on the money line where $100 wagered would return $230 - if such a thing was legal here in the archaic Keystone State, that is.

Clemson, 27-23

In last season's national title game, Clemson QB Deshaun Watson torched Alabama with 478 yards and 40 points. And still lost the game.

Given a full year to analyze that game, think Tide coach Nick Saban has come up with a way to stop the uber-talented junior? Look for Saban to make Watson throw the ball as much as possible while trying to limit his running lanes. If that can be done, Watson could be forced to throw interceptions.

I don't see it being done. Alabama starts a freshman quarterback in Jalen Hurts and in a game like this it's hard not to see him making a big mistake or two, giving Clemson some easy points. Add that to the big-play ability of Watson and I see Clemson putting up points. Enough to cover the spread, but not win the game. Saban is still too masterful in this spot.

Alabama, 41-38

If Alabama is ever going to lose again then this seems like the game. Right?

The Tide defense might be the best in the land but Clemson's offense just offered a balanced, effective rebuttal to Ohio State's claim as a viable playoff participant. The Tide's offense lost its coordinator, Lane Kiffin, when he and head coach Nick Saban agreed last weekend that Kiffin was too distracted by his impending departure for Florida Atlantic. Steve Sarkisian, who all season cast a long shadow from the Alabama recesses as an "offensive analyst," replaced Kiffin. This smells like disaster. Right?

Well, it would if Alabama didn't still have the better players.

Alabama, 35-21.

Deshaun Watson and Clemson's offense have scored big on just about everybody. As good as Alabama's defense is, it has not faced anything like this kind of firepower since a year ago when Watson and Clemson's offense torched the Tide in the championship game.

It is certainly possible that Alabama may be just so powerful nothing else matters. However, I think Watson matters and Clemson's defense is good enough to hang with 'Bama at the line of scrimmage.

Clemson, 27-20

Last year I took Clemson and the points and got a late cover. Never a bad thing. This time the spread is a little lower.

I don't think Alabama is unbeatable, but it's going to take close to a pristine effort to do it. And Clemson might just be capable, especially with Deshaun Watson, who got my vote for the Heisman Trophy. He's the kind of quarterback who's given the Tide trouble. And a bunch of other folks.

The biggest question for me is what - if any - impact the change in 'Bama's offensive coordinators is going to make. I don't know. I don't know if Nick Saban knows. 'Bama will have to throw the ball better than it did against Washington. I don't know how Clemson can play any better defensively than it did in whupping up on the Urban Meyers. I think the Tigers have been pointing to this rematch for 12 months. I think Alabama will find a way to get motivated, just because. There's something about trying to go down as one of the best ever that can do that. And once the game starts, I'm not sure how much emotions play into it. At some point it's more about making plays.

All signs point to it being another classic matchup. Every time I've gone against the Tide they've made me pay. But I think Clemson has a legit chance to win and I'm getting almost a touchdown. Hard to pass on that, again. I'm just hoping there's a reason to still be watching as the game heads toward midnight. The two semifinals didn't turn out to be much, so here's to this one making up for that and leaving us with something to remember. I think it might come down to a kick, or a final drive. Maybe we'll even get something close to the Rose Bowl.

Alabama is playing for more history. Clemson is trying to be the New York Giants against the Pats. If it happens my man Ryan Lawrence, who bleeds Orange, would never be the same.

Alabama, 28-27

Alabama doesn't do anything pretty, but it's hard to bet against a team that has NFL size at every position. I expect it to be low scoring but well-played, with Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson a potential X factor with his ability open up the field with his legs.

Alabama 20-17.

It's hard to disagree with the argument that this is Nick Saban's best team at Alabama. While the Crimson Tide has dominated college football this season, Clemson appears to be peaking at the right time after its semifinal blowout of Ohio State. Toss in the fact that Alabama recently dismissed offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin, and perhaps this game isn't as much of a slam dunk as one might think.

However, Alabama has always prided itself on having elite defenses and this year's unit is littered with more future NFL players. Last year in the national championship, Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson nearly hit 500 total yards and it still wasn't enough as the Tigers fell to the Tide, 45-40. It will be harder for Watson to replicate that performance this time around and despite Clemson seemingly coming on strong to end the year, the title is Alabama's to lose.

Alabama, 28-17

OVERALL

Best Bet in Parentheses

.............................................W-L-P Pct.

David Murphy (7-8-1). . . 126-94-9 .570

Bob Vetrone Jr. (7-9). . . 114-106-9 .517

Marcus Hayes (7-9) . . . 113-107-9 .513

Dick Jerardi (11-5) . . . 111-109-9 .504

Bob Cooney (9-7) . . . 111-109-9 .504

Mike Kern (8-7-1). . . 109-111-9 .496

Ed Barkowitz (4-12). . . 104-116-9 .474

Consensus . . . 124-96-9 .561

BOWLS/PLAYOFFS

Best Bet in Parentheses

....................................W-L-P Pct.

Mike Kern (1-2) . . . 19-18-2 .513

David Murphy (1-2) . . . 18-19-2 .487

Bob Vetrone Jr. (0-3) . . . 18-19-2 .487

Bob Cooney (2-1) . . . 17-20-2 .462

Dick Jerardi (3-0) . . . 16-21-2 .436

Marcus Hayes (1-2) . . . 14-23-2 .385

Ed Barkowitz (0-3) . . . 11-26-2 .308

Consensus . . . 16-21-2 .436

Note: There was no line for the Hawaii Bowl (Hawaii vs. Middle Tennessee) when the Daily News staff made its picks.