Murphy: Eagles fans shouldn't get ahead of themselves

WELL, THAT was fun. Surprising, too. Maybe even a little instructive, at least with regard to the long-term prospects of this Eagles franchise.

But anybody who thought their 3-0 start portended something for the immediate future - like a division title or playoff berth - was forgetting the first rule of football theory: Although you are what your record says you are, your record says nothing about what you will be. Shorter version: The Eagles showed us something the first five weeks of the season. Now, they'll need to do it all over again.

This team might prove to be a playoff contender, but it could just as easily prove to be a glorified version of what most of us thought it was heading into the season. That's how little a four-game stretch of an NFL schedule tells us about the rest of the season. Particularly with a team like this.

The cliche version is that every week is a new season, not just because every week brings a new opponent, but also because every week brings a new version of your own team, as well. The Eagles who beat the Browns and the Bears and the Steelers featured a first-year head coach who had never called a full game, a first-year defensive coordinator who last called a game in 2014, and a rookie quarterback fresh out of North Dakota State.

Each opponent is armed with a little more reconnaissance than the one before. This is a league that will not allow itself to sleep until it figures out how to counter whatever it is you are doing. We saw it figure out Chip Kelly, and Michael Vick. We saw it figure out Billy Davis midway through last season.

"I was 3-0 in my first year," wide receiver Jordan Matthews said a couple of weeks ago when he was asked what the Eagles' undefeated start meant in the grand scheme of things. "And we saw how that season ended."

That season, which saw the Eagles finish 10-6, wasn't even a disaster. Over the last 10 regular seasons, 24 teams have finished at or below .500 after winning at least three of their first four games. Four of those teams started the season 4-0, including last year's Falcons (who were 5-0).

The last time Doug Pederson spent a full season on an Eagles coaching staff, his team started 3-1, then lost 11 of its last 12 games. That was 2012, one of the more infamous seasons in franchise history.

You won't find many similarities between that team and this year's version, nor should you. This column is not meant to be read in an ominous tone with Vince Young making spooky noises over a microphone in the background. Process-wise, we've seen plenty of evidence that the Eagles will continue to be more competitive than most of us gave them credit for at the start of the season. Most of that has come at the quarterback position, where Carson Wentz's arm strength, accuracy and pocket presence are not things that will simply vanish.

Yet at least one of the five men who spent the first four weeks blocking for Wentz is going to vanish, starting this Sunday and continuing through the following nine, as right tackle Lane Johnson serves a suspension for a positive PED test. The play of the offensive line, particularly left tackle Jason Peters, has played a significant role in easing Wentz's transition into the NFL. That was a big question mark heading into the season. With Johnson's absence, we'll need to see the line answer it all over again.

Perhaps the most significant variable that will change is the schedule. Of their next eight games, the Eagles look like an obvious favorite in only one: Sunday, at Washington. After that, it's a home game against the undefeated Vikings, a couple of road division games in Dallas and New York, home against the 4-1 Falcons, then at 3-1 Seattle, home against 3-1 Green Bay, and at a 2-3 Bengals team that has made the playoffs in each of the last five seasons.

Most notable are the defenses and the quarterbacks they'll face: The Seahawks, Vikings and Bengals all finished last season ranked in the top five in the league in fewest points allowed. Factor in Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers, and the Eagles will (arguably) be facing a top-10 defense and/or quarterback in five of their next eight.

That's not to say 3-0 was a fluke. It just wasn't a referendum. The first five weeks of the 2016 season taught us a lot about what the identity of this team will be with Pederson as coach and Wentz as quarterback, and virtually nothing about how many wins that will mean between now and Week 17.

@ByDavidMurphy