Free-agent pitching will be hard for Phillies to find
The best starter available in this winter's free-agent class has made one start since July 7 because of a blister on his left middle finger. The next best is a 29-year-old righthander with a career 3.92 ERA and will require the surrender of a draft pick to sign. There's a 43-year-old Dominican whose fastball cannot crack 90 mph and a 30-year-old Texan who throws much harder but cannot command it.
The best starter available in this winter's free-agent class has made one start since July 7 because of a blister on his left middle finger. The next best is a 29-year-old righthander with a career 3.92 ERA and will require the surrender of a draft pick to sign. There's a 43-year-old Dominican whose fastball cannot crack 90 mph and a 30-year-old Texan who throws much harder but cannot command it.
It is a historically bad market for starting pitchers at a time when pitching has never been more expensive to acquire. The Phillies will look to add a veteran starter to their young rotation mix, and it could require some creative thinking to find the right solution.
Last winter, the Phillies flipped low-level minor-leaguers and added $16 million in salary to make trades for Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton. One deal worked, the other did not. That could be the strategy again this winter, although the options are less clear and more teams could look to swing a trade for pitching because the free-agent options - headlined by Rich Hill, Bartolo Colon, and Andrew Cashner - are so unattractive.
Hellickson is the pitcher with a career 3.92 ERA, but there is no questioning his value to the 2016 Phillies. They will extend him a qualifying offer, in the range of $17 million. Hellickson could reject that, thinking there is a better offer elsewhere because of market conditions. But that would attach a draft pick to his services. The Phillies would be happy to collect a pick if he signs elsewhere, although it will still leave a hole in the rotation.
Hellickson this season has accumulated 2.3 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs. Different teams employ different measurements, but the cost of a win on the free-agent market is generally believed to be around $7 million. So a $17 million salary, assuming Hellickson maintains his current production, is not obscene.
But is that a wise assumption to make? Hellickson, in his previous three seasons combined, accounted for minus-0.7 wins above replacement. The larger sample size indicates that Hellickson could regress - unless the Phillies have determined something he's done differently in 2016 is sustainable. Hellickson's change-up, used more often this season, rates as one of the better ones in baseball.
For now, money is no object. The Phillies have tons to spend. They will be more concerned about limiting the length of a deal, which could lead them to entice a free-agent pitcher with a high salary over a shorter term. Hellickson could be that arm. Or not.
What's in a number?
When the Phillies traded Carlos Ruiz to Los Angeles, Frank Coppenbarger had yet another number to freeze. No one will wear No. 51 for the Phillies, at least in the near future, just as no one has worn Nos. 11, 26, and 35 this season.
Coppenbarger, the team's director of travel and clubhouse services, has a delicate line to straddle. The Phillies do not retire numbers unless a player reaches the Hall of Fame. But Coppenbarger wants to honor players such as Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, Cole Hamels. and Ruiz. The same, eventually, will go for No. 6.
"We're just winding up one of the great periods in Philly baseball history," Coppenbarger said. "A lot of these guys had a significant number of years and contributions around here. In fairness to them and also a new player coming in, we think it's the right thing to do to just set aside certain numbers for an appropriate period of time. When is that? It's hard to answer."
Take away the six retired numbers - 1, 14, 20, 32, 36, 42 - and that's 10 of the first 51 numbers that are not available this season to Coppenbarger. He doesn't like to issue numbers in the 60s and 70s; they just don't look right. So he's had to double up on some numbers, like 34 for both Brett Oberholtzer and A.J. Ellis.
And who knows? Maybe the Phillies will one day alter their policy on retired numbers.
Updates on three
1 David Hernandez: For $3.9 million, the Phillies expected the veteran reliever to provide a late-inning presence. He has not filled that role. A majority of his appearances since June 1 have been in low-leverage situations because younger arms passed him on the depth chart.
2 Johnny Almaraz: The team's director of amateur scouting has begun to wield more influence. Three scouts - including a high-ranking cross-checker - were recently fired, according to a CSNPhilly.com report. More changes could come, as Almaraz has run the last two drafts with a staff from the old regime.
3 Perci Garner: The Phillies' second-round pick in 2010 made it to the majors last week with Cleveland as a 27-year-old reliever. Garner lacked command as a starter in the Phillies system and found it in the bullpen. Four players from that Phillies draft have made the majors: Garner, Cameron Rupp, David Buchanan, and Mario Hollands.
@mattgelb