Brown must strike right balance for Embiid
Days after the 2014 NBA draft, after the 76ers selected Joel Embiid with the No. 3 overall pick, their head coach offered what seemed at the time a fascinating hypothetical.
Days after the 2014 NBA draft, after the 76ers selected Joel Embiid with the No. 3 overall pick, their head coach offered what seemed at the time a fascinating hypothetical.
Over the two subsequent years, as everyone has waited for the navicular bone in Embiid's right foot to heal fully, that draft has always been framed as the greatest what-if of Sam Hinkie's tenure as the team's general manager. What if the Sixers had ended up with the No. 1 pick instead? Easy answer: They would have selected Andrew Wiggins - another prospective superstar but one without the risk that Embiid presented. But in the draft's aftermath, Brett Brown was so fulsome in his praise of Embiid's skills and potential that he made it possible to envision another scenario: If Embiid had been healthy, the Sixers would have been willing to trade up to No. 1 to get him.
"That's 100 percent accurate," Brown said then. "The bottom line is that Joel Embiid, at an extremely high percentage, would have gone first. He was the first player who was talked about, and you can see why. I remember clearly when the news was given to me from Sam that there was a curveball that's come into the marketplace with his injury. With the volatility, the uncertainty, the game changed. . . . I think Joel Embiid is beyond exciting. His future years are beyond exciting."
That future is supposed to begin, at last, this season. Sixers assistant coach Lloyd Pierce told the Inquirer last week, "We know he's healthy," so the burden falls on Brown now to do all he can to make sure Embiid stays that way. Of all the tests that Brown faces this season - the development of Ben Simmons, for instance, or the divvying of minutes among whatever frontcourt players remain on the roster - his management of Embiid's practice and playing time might be the most significant.
With Simmons, Embiid offers the promise of two franchise centerpieces for the Sixers, the roots of a team that might someday grow into a championship contender. And assuming that Embiid looks anywhere near as good against bona fide NBA competition as he does in the flashes he shows during workouts - a sleek and toned 7-foot-2 and 250 pounds, a deft shooting touch, enough lift in his feet to throw down thunderous dunks over assistant coaches - Brown may have to resist the temptation to push Embiid too hard too fast.
He's had so little to work with over his three seasons here, and he'll have to strike the right balance between honing Embiid's talents and easing him into game shape, all while not jeopardizing Embiid's career. Is 25 minutes a reasonable per-game benchmark? How many practices and games should Embiid sit out? When does he play in the second of back-to-back games? When do the Sixers throw away the bubble wrap for good?
"It's a challenge," said Jeff Van Gundy, who analyzes the league for ESPN and ABC. "You can never practice him, but then how well can he play?"
As the Houston Rockets coach from 2003 through 2007, Van Gundy confronted a similar task. During his four years under Van Gundy, Yao Ming averaged 20.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 32.6 minutes a game, validating the Rockets' groundbreaking decision to select him with the No. 1 pick in the 2002 draft. But the number of games he played decreased every year, from 82 in '03-04 to 48 in '06-07. His knees, his feet, and the rest of his body began to break down as his relentless work ethic became his worst enemy, as Van Gundy tried to limit Yao's practice time and save him from himself.
"But then, he wouldn't have been the player he was, either," Van Gundy said. "His level of preparation took him from being held scoreless in his first game to being the best center in basketball behind maybe Shaquille O'Neal."
If Embiid, at 22, is past the immature behavior that marred his first season with the Sixers - if he has a better understanding of the discipline necessary to withstand the rigors, on and off the court, intrinsic to being a great NBA player - his coach might have just the right background to help him.
Brown spent 12 years on Gregg Popovich's staff with the San Antonio Spurs, watching how Popovich massaged the lineup over a regular season, giving the team's veteran stars, Tim Duncan in particular, enough rest to keep them fresh. Maybe that sort of approach will be enough to prevent Embiid from suffering another catastrophic injury. But the uneasy part for the Sixers is there's no way to know for certain.
"Lower-body-extremity injuries are scary," Van Gundy said, "but I know this: You win championships in the NBA with Hall of Fame-caliber players, and no one was projecting anybody after Embiid [in the 2014 draft] to be a Hall of Fame-caliber player."
Only now, more than two years after the Sixers drafted him, does Joel Embiid have an opportunity to prove that all these grand pronouncements about him were justified. Those dreamy draft-night scenarios don't matter so much anymore. Brett Brown wanted to coach him. He gets to coach him. How long is up to Brown himself, and the hand of chance.
@MikeSielski