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Sielski: Philly is full of prodigies, so how do they stack up?

We're at a moment in time in Philadelphia sports. We're at that precious point when it's never better to be a fan here.

We're at a moment in time in Philadelphia sports. We're at that precious point when it's never better to be a fan here.

A year ago Sunday, the Flyers selected defenseman Ivan Provorov with the seventh pick in the NHL draft, the first of the four potentially franchise-shaping high draft picks that the city's major pro teams have made in the last 365 days. First the Flyers and Provorov last year, then the Eagles and quarterback Carson Wentz in April, the Phillies and outfielder Mickey Moniak earlier this month, and the 76ers and Ben Simmons on Thursday night.

That's two No. 1s, a No. 2, and a No. 7 - none of whom has suited up for his respective team yet. So there's nothing to worry about with any of them thus far, nothing to dread, no tangible evidence that any or all of them will fail to meet expectations. Our hope is cost-free, and that's important, because the instinct here is always to hope for something better, to enjoy the kind of moment Philadelphia is having now, then glance toward the sky for the plummeting anvil.

That glance is understandable, because the hope is always fleeting, or we presume it is, since it has dissipated so many times before. The latest Second Coming always has this annoying habit of being human. People put that hope in their hands and hold it tight and wish for magic. Then the games begin, and before you know it, Allen Iverson is having another 5-for-26 shooting night, and Donovan McNabb is digging divots into Lincoln Financial Field on third down, and Scott Rolen is rolling his eyes over Larry Bowa and Ed Wade, and Eric Lindros is cruising through the middle of the ice with the puck on his stick and his head down and Scott Stevens lurking.

Those nightmares can wait for the time being. Each of these athletes - Provorov, Wentz, Moniak, and Simmons - is for now a tabula rasa, and part of the fun of looking forward is wondering how the four of them will develop relative to each other. Who's the surest bet to become a star and make his team great? Let's consider some relevant factors and see how the four prospects stack up.

Inherent impact

This category has less to do with the athlete himself than with the sport he plays. A basketball player's potential influence on a game's outcome or a team's fortunes, for instance, supersedes that of any player in any of the other three sports. He's on the floor most, if not all, of the time. He can score, rebound, defend, facilitate. A great hitter might bat just four times a game; a pitcher starts just once every five days. A great NHL defenseman might play 30 minutes a game at most. A great quarterback doesn't play defense at all.

(1) Simmons, (2) Wentz, (3) Provorov, (4) Moniak.

Speed of ascension

That is, who among the four is likely to become a significant player for his team - not necessarily a superstar, but a vital part of the lineup - first? Moniak has a ways to go here, of course. He's just 18 and could spend several years in the Phillies' minor-league system. And the Eagles, ostensibly, are planning to keep Wentz on the bench for a while.

Talk to people around the Flyers, and they say that Provorov is likely to begin next season as one of the team's regular defensemen - provided that general manager Ron Hextall's belief that a young player must pay his dues doesn't stand in Provorov's way. More, they say it's possible he'll be their best defenseman before the season is half-finished. But he's not the presumptive best player on his team. Simmons might be.

(1) Simmons, (2) Provorov, (3) Wentz, (4) Moniak.

Sheer popularity

Again, each sport's distinctive qualities tilt the rankings here. The NFL is by far the most popular sport in the country, and unlike, say, New York or St. Louis, Philadelphia is a football town. It's a visceral thing with us. Wentz, then, has a natural advantage here. The NBA is built on individual stars - LeBron, Steph, K.D. - so if Simmons develops into one, his reach into the popular culture could be the longest for any Sixer since Iverson.

(1) Wentz, (2) Simmons, (3) Moniak, (4) Provorov.

Tested talent

All four of them are prodigies. They wouldn't have been among the top players in their respective drafts if they weren't. But Simmons and Provorov have excelled at higher levels of competition, relative to their sports, than Wentz and Moniak. It's not that the former two don't carry any uncertainty; it's that they have less of it. And considering how well Provorov played at the World Junior Championships and in the Western Hockey League, he has fewer questions than even Simmons does.

(1) Provorov, (2) Simmons, (3) Wentz, (4) Moniak.

If you go by the numbers - assigning four points for No. 1 in each category, three points for No. 2, and so on - this very scientific study of Philadelphia's Big Four Prospects breaks down like this: Ben Simmons (14 points), Carson Wentz (11 points), Ivan Provorov (10 points), Mickey Moniak (five points).

Enjoy the moment while it lasts, everyone. The Eagles' rookies and quarterbacks begin training camp on July 25.

msielski@phillynews.com

@MikeSielski