Ford: Crucial 'Nova-Kansas matchup is at forward

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - On the narrowing ladder of the NCAA tournament, Villanova reaches for a very high rung Saturday night in an Elite Eight matchup against the Kansas Jayhawks, who merely happen to be the top-ranked men's basketball team in the country.

The Wildcats have climbed this far with three tournament wins, one more impressive than the next. Their Thursday dismissal of Miami in the regional semifinal by a score of 92-69 was another thunder-and-lightning mix of rumbling defense and electric offense.

"They're a red-hot team right now," Kansas coach Bill Self said of Villanova. "But, honestly, we've been playing pretty well ourselves."

No kidding. The Jayhawks haven't lost since January, and have moved through their first games of the tournament with similar dispatch. Like Villanova, Kansas is experienced and confident and capable of breathtaking play.

If the Wildcats are fortunate enough to play to the end of the NCAA road, which is becoming a real possibility, it might be that Saturday's game is the competitive equivalent of their national championship test. Looking at the other schools that remain, looking at their strengths and weaknesses, looking at the matchups, Villanova could certainly have a tougher game sometime in the next 10 days, but it won't have a tougher opponent.

Predictions - just like rankings, seedings and RPI ratings - are pointless this late in the tournament, but here's a prediction you can trust: Neither team is scoring 90 points in this one.

"We've always marveled at Kansas' defense for years under Bill Self. They are physical, disciplined and they're very committed," Villanova coach Jay Wright said. "They've got the package. Their record is 12 straight Big 12 [regular-season championships]? I mean, that's absurd. You can only do that with great defense. Not good. Great."

Villanova, which led the Big East Conference in scoring defense, can play that game, too, and hasn't given up 70 points in any of its eight games in March. Of course, Kansas has averaged more than 82 points per game this month. So, something has to give.

Where the most interesting give and take of this big game will take place is a matchup between forwards Perry Ellis of Kansas and Kris Jenkins of Villanova. Ellis, the Jayhawks' leading scorer, is 6-foot-8 and has a two-inch height advantage over Jenkins, but he will have a tough time chasing Jenkins around the perimeter to defend his deadly three-point shots.

"I think that will be a key matchup. I do think they'll guard each other a good portion of the time when they're in there together," Self said. "One of the challenges for us, in Perry, would be getting to the shooters. Even though he can guard a perimeter player, he's not used to guarding somebody that has the freedom and ability to make hard, distant threes."

Jenkins, a junior whose range is "gym," can definitely do that. He has averaged nearly 18 points per game since the start of the postseason in the Big East tournament and has made 20 of 41 three-point shots during that span. On Thursday against Miami, he was forced to launch one from more than 35 feet because the shot clock was expiring, but didn't mind doing so at all.

"The key will be getting out there to defend," Ellis said, "because he's a stretch power forward, shooting at deep ranges and shooting it really well."

For his part, Ellis is very good putting the ball on the floor and driving strong to the basket or turning to post up a smaller defender. The senior from Wichita has been marked for stardom since he was in middle school and has lived up to it. Self made his initial scouting trip to the prospect's first high school game.

The matchup is intriguing and, if both teams didn't have so much riding on it, watching the showdown play out would be fun. Only one school will probably find it that way, however.

"Both of them are going to have to chase each other, and both of them can post up," Wright said. "They're both mismatch nightmares. For everybody, I don't mean just each other. And both of them are good decision makers. You see some guys that are good [isolation] guys, but if you bring help or trap them, they're not good decision makers. Both of them are."

So, to sum up, the two hottest scorers on the two teams playing to go to the Final Four are going to be covering each other for a good portion of Saturday's game. Both can shoot. Both can pass. Both are good off the dribble. Seasons can come down to matchups like this, and this one just might.

The ladder is high now, and it is narrow, and the grip isn't sure. One more rung is right there to be grabbed for Villanova against Kansas. But this one might be the slipperiest of all.

bford@phillynews.com

@bobfordsports