Athletics' Beane has been Beaned

IT HAS BEEN 8 years since "Moneyball" raised the morale of baseball's poor and huddled bottom feeders yearning to win on the cheap.

Their patron saint, Oakland general manager Billy Beane, used a little SABR math, some really good scouts and a lot of luck to prove you could make the postseason on a consistent basis without spending like the Yankees.

The A's bypassed seven-figure, iffy, high school phenoms in the draft. They looked for college players who made up for what they lacked in projectable talent with solid now results. The A's went for position players who put up good numbers in good programs, run scorers and high OBP guys. They also were big on BA with RISP, OPS, players who could get on base and score. Contact hitting was more sought after than longballing.

And it worked. For a while.

There is a long list of successful players who fit the Moneyball mold shaped by judicious use of Sabermetrics as opposed to the traditional BA, RBI-driven yardsticks used for more than 100 years. (I've got no problem with a lot of the Sabermetric stuff, as long as it does not ignore that the object of the game is to score one more run than the other guy. I regard OPS as the most useful way to measure a player's offensive contribution.)

But Moneyball has hit the wall for Beane. The reason the A's have not been back to the postseason since 2006 and are 45 games under .500 since then is that the system is so attractive economically, all the bottom feeders are into it. A number of top feeders, as well.

Bottom line: No pennant, despite two 100-plus-win seasons since 2000, six 90-plus-win seasons and five postseason appearances. Attendance in the Oakland Mausoleum has ranged from an American League eight best 2.170 million in 2002 to a dead-last 1.41 million in 2009. They are No. 14 again this year.

Across the bay, the Giants are the world champs and they did it because Brian Sabean out-Beaned Beane. Sabean did last year what the salary-maxed Phils are doing this year, using overwhelming pitching depth to overcome puny offense. But Sabean did it for $96.28 million in 2010 and is doing it so far this season for $118.2 million.

The contending Pirates are the feel-good story of the season on a $42.05 million payroll.

But this news just in: The Bucs have bought into the Giants' business model and are going all-in on high-ceiling pitching. They have outspent everybody on bonus money the past two seasons and most of it has gone to young pitchers - 17-year-old Luis Heredia, No. 2 overall 2010 selection Jameson Taillion, second-rounder Stetson Allie, and this year's No. 1 overall pick, Gerrit Cole. They represent a huge investment in high school-age phenoms.

The 6-6 Heredia has walked 12 in 10 innings for the Gulf Coast League Pirates. But the kid has struck out 10 and allowed just four hits.

Meanwhile, the Phils are acquiring a reputation for significantly small annual draft budgets since 2005 with a Moneyball approach in later rounds and a penchant for going all-in on high-ceiling, speedy, light-hitting high school outfielders.

OK, time is on their side. With the big club getting long of tooth, but hardly doddering, there is no urgency to move this speculative crop rapidly up the chain. There is a danger there, of course. At some point in the process, it would seem advisable to expose some of their Sistine Chapels and Westminster Abbey ceiling futures to a higher level of pitching.

The Phils had a $6.7 million budget for the 2008 draft. First-rounder Anthony Hewitt and 34th overall Zach Collier got $2.4 million of that budget. Now in their fourth seasons, both are repeating Low Class A Lakewood. Collier has an excuse: He missed all of 2010 following hamate surgery. Big speed, solid centerfielder, but lacks power. Zach needs the Florida State League challenge. He is a raw, low-percentage base-stealer who was caught for the 11th time yesterday.

Hewitt was a 2011 Sally League All-Star, despite low average and high strikeouts. A triple and double Saturday night left the athletic but baseball-challenged rightfielder/designated hitter with just four hits in his previous 34 at-bats. Four years in, repeating Lakewood, it's time to see if the kid can hit better pitching. If they let him establish a comfort level in the Sally, he'll be rudely shocked higher in the food chain.

But the underbelly of that draft has done swimmingly, thanks. Third-rounder in 2008 was Vance Worley, the Phillies' No. 4 starter, last I looked.

Two of five Clearwater Threshers Baby Aces, Trevor May (fourth round, $375,000) and Jarred Cosart (38th round, way-over-slot $550,000 bonus) were in that draft.

The Phillies only spent a shockingly small $3.2 million on the 2009 draft. More than one draft-tracking outfit thought Kelly Dugan, outfielder, first baseman ($485,000), and outfielder Kyrell Hudson ($475,000) were reaches. Phils had no first-round pick, so they were No. 75 and 106 and went high-ceiling.

They projected Dugan as a corner outfielder who will develop power. He has two homers in two short-season leagues. Hudson is repeating the New York Penn, where he batted .173 last season. Ky has nine doubles, two triples and one homer in 304 short-season ABs. His average is up to .252 and his OPS is up to .647. But his OPS in 2010 should have read Oops . . .

Guess who hit paydirt in that strangely skewed draft? The Phils lavished a slot-busting $900,000 on righthander Brody Colvin, a seventh-rounder and another of the Thresher Baby Aces. They also got top-rated first baseman Jonathan Singleton in the eight round for a $200,000 pittance.

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