A year ago, the Sixers watched as their NBA draft board keep shifting in an unexpected direction.
Florida big man Marreese Speights wasn't supposed to be there still when the Sixers drafted 16th. They hoped he would be ,but didn't expect it.
Last night, the winds of an unpredictable draft again were blowing favorably for the Sixers.
In virtually every scenario, UCLA freshman point guard Jrue Holiday was not going to be there at the 17th pick - many had him going in the top 10. But for whatever reason, Holiday started to fall.
The Sixers reacted to the situation, tried to move up but couldn't.
Then fortune stepped in, just like a year ago.
"It was very similar," Sixers assistant general manager Tony DiLeo said after the team made Holiday their pick in the 2009 draft. "He was one of the guys we were targeting.
"We tried to move up but couldn't do it. We're very fortunate because most people had him going in the top 10. For him to drop to us, we're ecstatic. He was definitely what we wanted."
The Sixers said they were drafting small.
Most, although not me, figured it would be the best point guard left. Holiday, 6-3, 180 pounds, was better than they expected.
"He has great upside, displays aggressiveness on both ends of the court, has a great nose for the ball as well as the size and strength to play both guard positions," Sixers president/general manager Ed Stefanski. "He has an NBA body. Big, big upside."
"Upside" is a key word concerning the Sixers.
Given the youth of their core players - Andre Iguodala, Thaddeus Young, Lou Williams, Speights and Jason Smith - the Sixers are still a work in progress.
Even if forward Elton Brand comes back healthy, it's difficult to see the Sixers challenging the Orlando Magic, Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics for the Eastern Conference next season.
Obviously, the goal is always immediate improvement, but the reality is that Sixers' time is still probably a season or two away.
Fans who are disappointed when the Sixers were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs the last two seasons probably don't want to hear about Holiday's upside. But it fits in with the ultimate plan of building this team into a legitimate title contender.
That's not going to happen until those core players mature and develop.
Holiday, 19, has the potential to grow into a special point guard right about the time the rest of the Sixers reach their prime.
"He has all the tools," Stefanski said, "but he's young and there will be a learning curve. To say Jrue Holiday is your starter, I think you have to go through training camp and see who wins out. We'll see how it goes in training camp and preseason."
What we have to find out now is how ready Holiday is to play in the NBA.
Holiday was the 2008 Gatorade National High School Player of the Year when he averaged 25.9 points, 11.2 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 4.8 steals at Campbell Hall High in California.
But UCLA had a solid point guard in senior Darren Collison, who was drafted 21st by the New Orleans Hornets. Holiday played the off guard for the Bruins.
"At times it was frustrating," said Holiday, who averaged 8.5 points and 3.7 assists for the Bruins, "but it was a new experience. It was frustrating at times, but it was something that helped my game."
The Sixers drafted Holiday to be a point guard.
And while DiLeo said they might not be counting on Holiday to contribute right away, he reminded everyone that was the same thing they said about Young and Speights, both of whom made huge contributions as rookies.
Holiday believes he will be the third straight Sixers rookie to surprise.
"I honestly see myself as an impact player," Holiday said. "Every time I step on the floor I'm going to be there and contribute to the team.
"That's the expectations I have of myself - to come in and impact the game in my first year."
The Sixers could have gone in another direction.
With the status of free agent Andre Miller up in the air, it might have been more prudent for the Sixers to have selected a more mature lead guard, such as North Carolina star Ty Lawson, Wake Forest's Jeff Teague of Wake Forest, Virginia Commonwealth's Eric Maynor, or Collison.
All were selected directly after Holiday.
But sometimes an unexpected gift drops into your lap that you can't pass on.
"Our scouting staff was unanimous on Jrue," DiLeo said. "Of the players in our area or the ones that might drop down, [Holiday] was a wish player for us.
"We didn't think he would drop down, but we were unanimous as a staff that if he was there, we would take him." *
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