Note: Home teams in CAPITAL LETTERS
Eagles (+4) over GIANTS
This game is all about the rebirth of Donovan McNabb and the healthy legs of Brandon Jacobs. But it's also about the defensive family tree that starts with Jim Johnson. Over the last decade, in the 10 trips the Birds made to New Jersey, there have been only two games where the New Yorkers have scored more than 22 points. In 2000, the Eagles lost to the Giants, 24-7, and in 2005 (that ugly 6-10 team), they lost, 27-17. In the other eight games, the Eagles held the Giants to 16, 9, 10, 10, 6, 22, 16, and 14 back in December. And if I might, don't these Birds look kinda like the New York team that got hot at the end of last season, and went all the way to the title as a wild card? The Eagles have covered five of the last six, but it's their record as an underdog that has to catch your eye. Over the last three seasons, they have covered an amazing 10 of 13 as an overall underdog, and nine of the last 10 as a road 'dog. With a 90 percent cover rate, this is the only move to make.
Ravens (+3) over TITANS
What a difference a year, a new coach and a quarterback make. Last season, Baltimore struggled to a 5-11 record with Brian Billick still calling the shots and Steve McNair and Kyle Boller sharing time at QB. Enter John Harbaugh (yes, another branch in the Jim Johnson defensive tree) and Delaware's Joe Flacco. This dynamic young combo led the Ravens to a solid 11-5 regular-season mark, and a stout, first-round, 27-9 whipping of the Dolphins. It ain't gonna be that easy against Tennessee, but we are calling for the upset in this best bet. Why? Baltimore has covered 14 of the last 18 overall, seven of nine on the road. The other reason is that Pro Bowl center Kevin Mawae, the second most important player on the Titans' offense, is listed as doubtful. If he does not make it, it's a huge loss for Tennessee. When you're playing a defense like Baltimore's, you need all your bullets, and without Mawae, the Titans will go down.
Cardinals (+10) over PANTHERS
Sometimes, when people tell you that you stink, that you're the worst playoff team ever, it causes a little anger. That's what happened last Saturday, when Arizona was a three-point underdog at home to Atlanta, and wound up with a 30-24 victory. Looking at the applicable stats, you would think that the Cards have no shot. They went 0-5 on the East Coast this season, and are 2-20 in the Eastern time zone the last 9 years or so. Carolina is 8-0 at home this season, and has covered four of the last five. So where's the light at the end of the tunnel? Here are a few rays: 'Zona is 4-0 the last few years as a double-digit 'dog, and in an Oct. 26 game at Carolina, it put up quite a fight before losing, 27-23, covering the five-point spread. Now, the Cards are an embarrassing 10-point 'dog, and while they will not win, they'll bark all the way to the bank.
Chargers (+6) over STEELERS
Let's not make this all about the groin. We know that LaDainian Tomlinson has ripped or torn something in there, but this San Diego team has been on fire (5-0), and did it Saturday with only five carries and 25 yards from LT. Darren Sproles, the tiny engine (5-6) that could, out of Kansas State, stepped up and gobbled up 105 yards on the ground, caught five passes for 45 yards, and had a combined total of 178 yards on kickoff and punt returns. That's a season for some guys. Of course, the Chargers will miss Tomlinson, but Sproles and his 328 all-purpose yards should more than offset the loss. And if you're worried about the beach boys from San Diego having trouble in the wintry conditions in Pittsburgh, don't. The last time the Lightning Bolts were in town (Nov. 16), it was snowing, and San Diego held Pitt to only 11 points. Not looking for a W, but the Bolts will cover the six-point spot.
