Photos: 2008 Phillies
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The Phillies have been talking about the value of playoff experience, and how they have a different focus this October after being swept by Colorado last year.
That is fine and probably true. But there are reasons to be optimistic about these Phillies that don't require psychoanalysis to diagnose.
"I think we've got a chance to do something," manager Charlie Manuel said. "It's all up to us. We've been saying we control our destiny. Well, we still do."
Manuel is right. The Phillies have the last two National League most valuable players - and very likely this year's - in their lineup. They have a solid three-man postseason rotation. They have a closer who converted all 41 of his regular-season save opportunities.
There is no reason to believe this team can't win the pennant. The Phillies are the better team in the first round and capable of beating Chicago. That won't be easy, but if it were easy to get to the World Series, the Phillies would do it more often.
It is understandable that players such as Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are talking about playing better against the Brewers than they did against the Rockies. An offensive-oriented team hit .172 while being swept. Of course the players want to be better.
But the more tangible differences are even more compelling, and they begin with the opponent.
The Brewers will play Games 1 and 2 at a ballpark where they were swept in a four-game series just two weeks ago. That sweep catapulted the Phillies back into both the division and wild-card races and sent the Brewers reeling. The day after they left Philadelphia, manager Ned Yost was fired and replaced by Dale Sveum, who briefly played for the Phillies.
The Rockies, by contrast, won 13 of their last 14 regular-season games last year. They beat San Diego in a one-game tiebreaker for the wild card, then swept the Phillies and Arizona in the playoffs. That's a 21-1 record. That's scorching.
Milwaukee did win six of seven games to squeak past the wretched Mets for the wild card. That's not bad, but it isn't scorching.
The Rockies smothered the Phillies' offense with surprisingly excellent pitching from pitchers the Phillies were unfamiliar with.
The Brewers' CC Sabathia started four consecutive games on short rest, including a complete game yesterday. Even if that doesn't catch up with the ace lefthander this week, it could mean Sabathia pitches just once in the best-of-five series.
After Sabathia, the Brewers have four starters the Phillies faced and defeated earlier this month. The combined score of those games: Phillies 26, Brewers 10.
The Brewers have a good lineup, anchored by Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun, whose clutch home run yesterday propelled the team into the playoffs. But it is not as powerful or as complete as the Phillies' lineup.
This isn't all about the Brewers, though. The Phillies are a better team than they were at this point last year.
Third baseman Pedro Feliz is an upgrade over Wes Helms and Abraham Nunez, and Greg Dobbs is still here as a lefthanded-hitting option.
If you make the case that Aaron Rowand and Shane Victorino were a better center/right combo than Victorino and Jayson Werth, you also have to factor in that Rowand hit .083 against the Rockies. Victorino and Werth have been just fine.
The bullpen is markedly better. The signature moment of last year's sweep - Kaz Matsui's grand slam off Kyle Lohse - happened because Manuel did not have a reliever he trusted in that situation. Now he would bring in Chad Durbin or Ryan Madson or J.C. Romero.
The Phillies have more of a chance to get the game to their closer, and Brad Lidge has been perfect.
Last year's Game 2 starter, Kyle Kendrick, likely won't even be on the active roster. In Cole Hamels, Brett Myers and Jamie Moyer, the Phillies have a legitimate three-man postseason rotation.
Free advice: They should start in just that order. Going lefty, righty, lefty is more likely to flummox the Brewers' young-ish lineup. Moyer's stagecraft will be more effective if the Brewers don't face another lefthanded change-up artist, Hamels, the day before.
"It gets down to the guy standing on the mound," Manuel said. "He can smother the other team, especially early in the game."
The mainstays - Howard, Utley, Rollins - do have to play better this time around. That's a given. That's where the mental part comes in.
"It's exciting," Utley said. "It's exciting to be in this position, but we still have some unfinished business."
The Phillies are good enough to win this series. It really is up to them.
"When you get to the finish line," Manuel said, "you've got to finish."
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