Bill Conlin: Phillies fans, we'll let you know when to panic

By Bill Conlin
Philadelphia Daily News

Daily News Sports Columnist

THERE IS A significant difference between concern and panic.

Concern is when the unsinkable ocean liner begins to list enough for the fine china to start sliding off the tables and the captain orders the women and children to assemble at their designated lifeboats.

Panic is when it becomes obvious there are about 1,500 more passengers than there are seats in the lifeboats, the bow is sliding underwater and somebody hollers, "Every man for himself!"

The Phillies are listing just enough after a 1-5 stretch against two excellent American League teams for the batting helmets to be sliding out of their racks and the manager to do a little tweaking to his moribund batting order. And to have his end-game strategy questioned for the first time since his ballclub seized first place last month with a battering-ram flurry of home run-driven offense.

When moves, right or wrong, fail to succeed, managers are left with a massive Greek Chorus of, "How the hell could Taguchi swing at a 2-0 pitch?"

Charlie Manuel says he was fine with it - providing it was the fastball he was hoping that K-Rod, Angels closer extraordinaire Francisco Rodriguez, would throw to so-so So on that count with two outs and runners on first and second. Manuel was asked why he didn't pinch-run Taguchi, instead of Eric Bruntlett, for Pedro Feliz in the ninth. Charlie's counter was Taguchi was a career 1-for-1 against K-Rod. That's hardly a trend-dictating body of work, but it beats a broken maple bat handle in the eye.

There appear to be no signs of panic around this "mixup," as Jim Fregosi calls slumps. I've seen Phillies clubs go on the road in a less permissive time with a slump draped around their sagging shoulders and have a full workout on the open date in the next town. Or at least some optional BP for anybody who cared to take a few redemptive hacks. But that went out with 1-year contracts and players working construction in the offseason.

Nobody has yelled, "Every man for himself." Plenty of time for that. But a Marlins team that appeared ready for the crash-dive everybody in baseball has been predicting since Opening Day is suddenly tailgating. Back off Dan Uggla, this ain't NASCAR. The A's prevented the tail-walking Marlins from moving into a virtual tie for first place in the East yesterday as the 3-2 loss dropped the Phils' record to 10-10 in the month of June with nine difficult road games in three time zones looming.

With Vlad the Impaler using the leftfield seats as a personal gunnery range and his teammates playing their forcing smallball game, the AL West-leading Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and All Orange County North of Camp Pendleton completed the weekend sweep of Manuel's stone-cold squad.

The déjà vu is so thick around the Phillies right now that it could be any one of the high-80- win teams that have frustrated us, dating to Larry Bowa's first- season flirtation with first place.

Once more they appear headed for high-80s territory, albeit in a division so devoid of quality rivals that 85 might get it done. They have fallen from 13 games over .500 to 42-35. To accomplish Jimmy Rollins' 2008 prediction of 100 victories, they need to go - take a deep breath - 58-27.

Does the starting pitching of the past 2 weeks appear capable of igniting a 31-games-over-.500 pace in the final 85 games?

General manager Pat Gillick is known for pulling trade-deadline rabbits out of his hat, but those were in a time when a Tony La Russa could turn turn a Phillies-released pitcher like Dave Stewart over to pitching coach Dave Duncan and - presto! - watch Smoke win nine games the rest of 1986 and 84 the next four seasons.

The Phillies will tell you they are not going to let an opportunity to go deep into October this season pass them by. That is a noble but very expensive statement by an organization lacking the almost-ready, top-shelf prospects it will take when current "We're still in it" GMs turn into fervent sellers.

"Rent to Own" is not a realestate option that fits the Phillies' business model.

This team is a spectacular, Fourth of July, fireworks show when everybody is long-balling. But when the homers are replaced by the strikeouts and Paoli Local speed in the middle of the lineup - Ryan Howard, Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, Pedro Feliz and Chris Coste - the offense stagnates. These guys would have trouble going first to third on a single if they cut across behind the mound. And when the big, homer-swollen numbers aren't going up, the seasons of Jenkins, Feliz and Ruiz fall into harsh focus. Jenkins, a 20-plus homer guy his entire career, is hitting a soft .249 with six homers. Feliz has been great on defense but when the other bats fall silent, you notice he has two fewer homers than platoon outfielder Jason Werth's 10 in nearly 100 more at-bats. Ruiz has been a major offensive disappointment.

Manuel knows that Mike Scioscia's Angels just gave the Phillies a lesson in how a team that lacks big power can apply constant pressure, then ride the back of its bullpen.

"We don't manufacture runs when Rollins and [Shane] Victorino aren't getting on base," Manuel said. "We got to 13 games over .500 by executing and doing things right. Right now we can't do any of those. The things that we're doing now is losing games for us."

Feel free to be concerned by all of this. Just remember, teams that live by the home run also die by it.

You just hope the current vacuum in the Phillies Smash Palace is over before rigor mortis sets in. *

Send e-mail to bill1chair@aol.com.

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