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DN Editorial: KENNEY'S LEARNING CURVE

MAYOR KENNEY has galloped through his first month in office at breakneck speed. In some ways, his first month in office is a continuation of his campaign: frequent public appearances - at schools, ribbon-cuttings, citizen meetings - all sending a message that he intends to be an energetic, hands-on leader of all Philadelphians.

MAYOR KENNEY has galloped through his first month in office at breakneck speed.

In some ways, his first month in office is a continuation of his campaign: frequent public appearances - at schools, ribbon-cuttings, citizen meetings - all sending a message that he intends to be an energetic, hands-on leader of all Philadelphians.

It's a good start.

Now comes the crunch time - when Kenney will have to confront the hard reality of governing a big city. It will happen as he formulates his first city budget.

With that budget, the new mayor will want to make his own imprint on city government, but that's easier said than done. As Donald Rumsfield said about Iraq: "There are the known knowns. These are the things we know."

What we know is that Kenney won't have much new money to play with. Tax revenues rise in small steps year to year. Overall, the increase in revenue between this year and next is likely to be $70 million or less. That's a pittance when placed against $4 billion the city spends each year.

Another known known is that city employees will need new contracts. The blue-collar union's contract expires at the end of June, the white-collar employees and police and fire fighters will need contracts in 2017.

The unions feel they got shortchanged by Mayor Nutter. There is pent-up demand for wage increases. Kenney ran as a friend of unions - and got their endorsements. But, they are expensive friends. It will be a challenge for the mayor to balance their demands with the city's needs.

To continue the Rumsfield quote: "There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we know we don't know."

An example of a known unknown is the city's pension fund. The fund's managers estimated they would earn about 7 percent on investments this year. Instead, the gain was closer to 1 percent. When that happens, the city has to make up the difference out of tax revenue. The city this year paid $611 million into the fund. We know it will have to pay more next year because of the poor return in investments. What's unknown at the moment is how much.

Another known unknown is the school district. Gov. Wolf's plan to increase state funding for schools would have eased the demands on the city to contribute more to operation of the district. But, Wolf's budget has yet to pass. No one knows how much more public schools will get from the state or when they will get it. It's a mess.

Finally, as Rumsfield put it: "There are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't know we don't know."

Some examples of unknown unknowns: How about three more major snowstorms this winter that run up overtime costs by the millions? How about disturbances at this summer's Democratic National Convention, which requires thousands of hours of overtime for police? How about a sudden downward spiral in the world economy that causes a recession in the U.S.?

We don't even want to consider the possibility of that last unknown unknown, though as former Mayor Nutter can testify: It can happen.