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Why grayer equals greener

'DO IT FOR the kids" has always been one of the most popular arguments in favor of environmentalism: Older people need to get their act together, or else it's the children who'll suffer the consequences.

'DO IT FOR the kids" has always been one of the most popular arguments in favor of environmentalism: Older people need to get their act together, or else it's the children who'll suffer the consequences.

Indeed, in terms of what they buy and how they vote, younger Americans tend to be more eco-conscious than seniors, who are less likely than anyone else to believe that global warming is a man-made phenomenon. But here's the weird thing: In practice, it's the older folks who are better for the environment.

In an effort to improve models of global warming, a team of researchers led by Brian O'Neill of the National Center for Atmospheric Research estimated what U.S. emissions would look like in two cases: one in which the age structure of the population looked the same as today's, and one where - as many demographers project - the percentage of Americans over 65 more than doubled.

Their conclusion: Grayer is greener, with the aging population expected to produce anywhere from 10 to 37 percent less emissions by 2100.

At first, we assumed this must be because older Americans consume in a more environmentally friendly way. They drive a good deal less, so they spend less on gas and produce less pollution.

They're also less likely to buy big-ticket items like cars or large appliances. And they spend a huge percentage of their income on health care, which - dollar for dollar - doesn't produce that much pollution or require that much energy.

O'Neill says the consumption mix for older people isn't significantly more carbon-efficient than the one for younger folks.

Seniors spend a higher percentage of their incomes heating and cooling their homes - so much so that it just about cancels out whatever benefits they generate by driving less. (If you're elderly or have elderly parents, that makes it even more important to invest in insulation and other energy-saving fixes.)

The elderly do spend a lot of their money on health care, but the rest of us put more resources into education, another clean way to spend.

The real reason older Americans are better for the environment is that they work less and have lower incomes. It's not so much that they spend their money in a better way - it's just that they don't spend as much in the first place. The aging of the population will make America somewhat poorer - economic growth will slow as a greater share of consumers become unable to work.

And a slowed economy produces less pollution. All told, the aging of the population won't reduce U.S. emissions enough to halt climate change, but it might make our work a little bit easier.

So what can younger folks learn from the elderly about becoming more environmentally friendly?

Not much.

Growing older means becoming greener only because it involves a lifestyle change that no young person wants to make - namely, becoming a good deal poorer.

In that sense, the aging of America - and to an even greater extent, of Western Europe and Japan - offers just about the least attractive plan there is for combating global warming.

With a smaller percentage of the population working, the challenge is to find a way to keep growing in a grayer world, while making sure that growth is green, too. Modern environmentalism puts great stake in the idea that small, individual choices, added together, can make a big difference. It turns out that who we are, demographically speaking, ends up mattering at least as much as what we do. *

Jacob Leibenluft writes for Slate, (slate.com), where this first appeared.