Phillies needed more from Jake Arrieta | Extra Innings

Stop the fight! That's what we would be shouting if the Phillies season were a boxing match. Since their faint hope of winning the National League East was extinguished Saturday in Atlanta, the Phillies have been outscored by 36-5. You read that right: 36-5, including 14-0 last night against the Colorado Rockies and 34-4 in the past three games at Coors Field.

The Phillies have dropped seven consecutive games, 14 of the last 18, and 32 of 42. General manager Matt Klentak described their recent play as "awful." We can think of a few other words, but this is a family newsletter.

Alas, the fight must go on … for four more games. Here, though, is a serious question: The Phillies averaged only 22,005 fans over their last homestand. What will the crowds look like at Citizens Bank Park this weekend?

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—  Scott Lauber (extrainnings@philly.com)

On July 31, a few hours after the nonwaiver trade deadline passed, Jake Arrieta scaled the mound at Fenway Park, held the best team in baseball to one run in seven innings, and kept the Phillies perched atop the National League East standings.

"That's why you get a guy like that," Rhys Hoskins said.

Indeed, the Phillies took the three-year, $75 million plunge and signed Arrieta during spring training because he was the playoff-tested horse with the stone-cold stare and Cy Young swagger that they lacked in their young starting rotation. And if they were going to surprise people and contend for a playoff spot, the 32-year-old righthander would have to lead the way from the mound.

But if Arrieta dazzled in that 3-1 win over the Boston Red Sox and an eight-inning gem at Arizona in his next start, he has thrown only duds ever since. In his last eight starts, including Saturday's knockout by the Atlanta Braves in which he lasted only two innings, he has posted a 6.64 ERA and finished the sixth inning only three times. Since Aug. 7, only six NL pitchers have a worse ERA.

Say what you want about the six-week slip in performance by Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez and Zach Eflin, but Arrieta is just as complicit in the Phillies' free fall as their trio of young starters. And considering how much more was expected of him based on both his track record and his salary, Arrieta bears even more culpability.

Here, though, is the scary part: Arrieta can't explain the downturn.

"I mean, that's part of the reason it's continuing," he said. "It's still trying to kind of figure that out."

To manager Gabe Kapler, Arrieta looks similar to last year, when he had a 3.53 ERA, 163 strikeouts and 55 walks in 168 1/3 innings for the Chicago Cubs. Heading into his final start of 2018 tonight in Colorado, he has a 3.94 ERA, 135 strikeouts and 56 walks in 166 2/3 innings.

In June, Arrieta was critical of the Phillies' defense, specifically their issues with the shift. It seemed reasonable. As a sinkerballer, he gets a lot of grounders, and if those grounders get through the infield, it will adversely impact his performance. But unlike Velasquez and Pivetta, Arrieta's fielding independent pitching is actually worse (4.15) than his ERA, a sign that he hasn't been harmed by his defense.

Asked recently to assess his season, Arrieta said, "I feel like it could've been better in some areas, but what's done is done."

The Phillies are done, too. And Arrieta is a big reason for that.

How lopsided is this series in Colorado? Nick Pivetta and Victor Arano took their turns getting rocked last night, and the Phillies have allowed 10 or more runs in three consecutive games for the first time since 1958, writes Matt Breen, who should get hazard pay for having to sit through it.

Just in case there was a doubt — and there shouldn't have been — Gabe Kapler will manage the Phillies again next season. Kapler deserves his slice of blame pie for the past two months, but he wasn't about to lose his job over it.

Kapler will return next season, but many of his players won't. General manager Matt Klentak joined the Phillies in Denver and said he believes "significant changes are necessary" in the offseason. Bryce Harper? Maybe. Manny Machado? Perhaps. But count on several trades, too. Odubel Herrera, for instance, might have value because of his team-friendly contract.

What did this season teach us about the Phillies? A lot, writes columnist Marcus Hayes, who outlines 10 things he learned. You won't like No. 3, but I was struck by No. 6, Marcus' interesting take on Jorge Alfaro.

Today: Phillies play their final road game of 2018 in Colorado, 3:10 p.m.
Tomorrow: Jerad Eickhoff makes first start of the season vs. Braves, 7:05 p.m.
Saturday: A curtain call is in order for Aaron Nola's season finale, 7:05 p.m.
Sunday: Mercifully, Phillies wrap up the season vs. Braves, 3:05 p.m.

While the Phillies' fortunes changed dramatically from the first week of the season to the last, here's one thing that remained the same: Their defense was bad.

Record-level bad, actually.

Most defensive metrics haven't progressed to the point of being a completely precise indicator of performance, but "defensive runs saved" is regarded as one of the most accurate. The Phillies entered play Wednesday night with minus-129 defensive runs saved, the worst mark in the 16 years since the statistic was developed by Baseball Info Solutions. The previous low belonged to the 2005 New York Yankees (minus-120).

By position, according to Fangraphs, the Phillies ranked 26th in DRS at catcher, 15th at first base, 27th at second base, 27th at shortstop, 28th at third base, 30th in left field, 26th in center field, 28th in right field, and 30th at pitcher. Among all players, Rhys Hoskins was second-to-last in DRS (minus-25), while Nick Williams (minus-16), Maikel Franco (minus-12) and Odubel Herrera (minus-10) also didn't grade well.

Send questions by email or on Twitter @ScottLauber.

Question: Given the past eight weeks, how much of this is on Gabe Kapler? Was the collapse a function of the methods catching up? There have been times in recent games where there was no "jam." Much has been written about chemistry, but where the previous manager took less talent and had them playing their tails off last season, this guy seems to have lost the grip on his team. Trying to be objective given it's his first year, but he's not passing the eye test to me. Smart guy, but not sure he's truly connected to his team (and definitely not to Philly fans). — John B., via e-mail.

Answer: Thanks, John, for the question. I'm not sure how much the entirety of these last eight weeks reflects on Kapler, but it certainly seems as though the team has quit on him over the past few days.

My sense for much of the season was that Kapler was the right fit for such a young team. Most players were too impressionable to look cross-eyed at Kapler's unorthodox style, and they appreciated his unfailingly positive outlook. But the Phillies were deeply flawed despite their first-place standing, and I believe Kapler got in trouble by trying to compensate for those flaws by constantly seeking the slightest marginal advantages. He overmanaged at times, and when rosters expanded in September, he really got carried away. I think it wore everybody down, including the players.

In short, I don't think the Phillies collapsed because of Kapler. But clearly he didn't help the situation, either.