Winter snow-starved, cold-starved, now here comes April

Given what hasn't happened this winter, Sam Hoadley is mildly concerned that some of the region's plant life might try to act foolishly by blossoming before its time.

That was a common issue last year, when countless naïve blossoms lost their heads to a late freeze, Hoadley, senior gardener at Longwood Gardens, recalled Friday.

But who could blame anything — or anyone for that matter — for acting a little foolishly on a weekend when an all-out April intrusion is due to crash the snow- and cold-starved winter of 2016-17? Temperatures are forecast to rocket into the 60s Saturday and Sunday under an ever-strengthening February sun.

When the meteorological winter ends at the end of the month, it is likely to finish among the 10 warmest, with an average temperature of 39.6 – about five degrees above long-term averages — said Walt Drag, meteorologist at the National Weather Service in Mount Holly. This month could be the second-warmest February on record.

Mild winters certainly aren't a strictly modern phenomenon, long predating the worldwide warming of recent decades.

The warmest on record occurred in 1932, and the winter of 1890 was so mild that the Inquirer reported that three woolen factories had closed and upstate coal companies had to slice their workforce.

Colonists' journals speak of gentle winters in the 17th century, in the heart of the Little Ice Age, and Wilson A. Bentley, the Vermont farmer whose magical photographs documented that no two snowflakes are identical, complained of flake-challenged winters in the 1920s.

What is different is that the warm ones have become more frequent. Five of the reigning 10 in the 144-year period of record have occurred since 1991, and three of those are in the 21st century.

What has been more impressive is the warmth of the nights. The January daytime highs averaged 44.3, or 3.6 above what's normal. But the daily minimums were 32.6 — a full 7 degrees above the normal low of 25.6.

This fits neatly into the January pattern for the entire eastern United States, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information.

Every state in the Northeast finished in the top 10 warmest for daily minimums in January: Maine, No. 3, and Vermont, New Hampshire, and Connecticut, tied for No. 4.

While snow totals around here actually have bumped up in recent years, this year is a notable exception.

The official total at Philadelphia International Airport stands at eight hard-earned inches, and that amount came only after two bump-up recounts.

The government's two-week outlook calls for above-normal temperatures throughout the East. The days are lengthening in a month that boasts the biggest solar energy gains of the year. And by this time next month, the sun will be setting well after 7 p.m. No wonder some plants are feeling their oats.

"The witch hazels are in full bloom right now," said Longwood's Hoadley. In general, the horticultural world appears to be about two weeks ahead of schedule.

"Things are starting to wake up," he said. "I'm  hoping that slows down a little bit."