Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Inquirer Daily News

Bolaris: Models align for a brush with snow

NOAA´s 6-10 day precipitation outlook predicts a 50-60 percent probability for above-normal precipitation. (NOAA)
NOAA's 6-10 day precipitation outlook predicts a 50-60 percent probability for above-normal precipitation. (NOAA)

It looks like the storm we have been watching for days will take on a similar track as the one two weeks ago, when most of the snow fell across southeast New Jersey and Delaware. This storm should generally follow the same path.

Computer models for the last several days have differed largely on the outcome for this storm. Ranging from the North American model blasting us with heavy snow, the global forecasting model ejecting the storm off the Florida coast and the European and Canadian models painting a swath of heavy snow just east of Philly.

Then a wild swing with the global models put Philly back into the heavy snow as the North American model completely went the other way - with no snow for Philly.

Energy has been racing at rapid-fire speed from the Pacific to the Atlantic that computer models have been playing catch-up all winter long. In all my years of forecasting I have never seen such huge differences in computer model runs to vastly different scenarios in each computer camp. This not only drives me up a barometric wall, but you too as the flip-flopping forecasts can drive just about everyone insane.

Well here goes: over the last 24 hours all the models are finally getting on the same page and suppressing the Sunday-night-into-Monday-morning storm to the south.

As I write this, winter storm watches have been posted across southern New Jersey and Delaware as they stand the best chance of receiving significant snow (4 inches-plus). However, I would not paint such a broad brush of heavy snow. With models continuing to trend more of a southerly track, the absolute best chance of seeing 4 inches-plus is Cape May County and Delaware, from Dover and points south. And even in these locations I would not be surprised to see less than 4 inches.

Current projection of snow totals

PENNSYLVANIA

Philly: 1-2 inches

Eastern Montgomery County: 1-2 inches

Eastern Chester County: 2-3 inches

Lower Bucks County: 1-2 inches

Western Chester County: Coating

Central Chester County: 1 inch

Western Montgomery County: Coating

Upper Bucks County: Coating to an inch.

Delaware County: 1-2 inches

Lehigh Valley & Poconos: Dusting

NEW JERSEY

Western Camden County: 1-3 inches

Eastern Camden County: 2-4 inches

Salem County: 2-4 inches

Gloucester County: 2-4 inches

Atlantic County: 2-4 inches

Cape May County: 3-5 inches

Southern Ocean County: 2-4 inches

North Ocean County: 1-2 inches

Monmouth County: Coating

Burlington County: 1-2 inches

Mercer County: 1-2 inches

Cumberland County: 2-4 inches

DELAWARE

New Castle: 2-4 inches

Kent: 3-5 inches

Sussex: 3-5 inches

Timing

Snow arrives after 10 p.m. Sunday, possibly mixed with a little sleet at the start.

Monday morning rush: Any snow will be tapering off in the city, and ending.

Snow will be significant across southern New Jersey, mainly east of I-295, and Delaware, mainly south of the canal.

By noon, coastal sections will see snow taper off and end.

John Bolaris

John Bolaris For Philly.com
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