High-profile political vacancies aplenty in Montgomery County
In a typical year, last week's announcement that Montgomery County Commissioner Leslie Richards would leave to become the state's next transportation secretary would qualify as a political bombshell.
In a typical year, last week's announcement that Montgomery County Commissioner Leslie Richards would leave to become the state's next transportation secretary would qualify as a political bombshell.
But 2015 is shaping up as anything but typical.
Richards' departure brings the number of high-level elected vacancies in Montgomery to seven, unleashing a political feeding frenzy as dozens of prospective candidates swarm for the chance to run for commissioner, district attorney, judgeships, and row offices.
"It's virtually unheard of. Important offices, too, all high-profile," G. Terry Madonna, a political pollster at Franklin and Marshall College, said of the sudden upheaval in Pennsylvania's third-most-populous county. "It's going to be a wild affair."
For Republicans, the unexpected vacancies in key posts represent an opportunity to regain some seats after losing their grip on the county in the last decade.
"It generates a new sense of livelihood," said State Rep. Mike Vereb, chairman of the county Republican Committee.
Democrats, confident of their ability to retain the majority, are excited at the prospect of electing the county's first Democratic district attorney.
"That race is going to make a lot of noise," said Marcel Groen, Democratic Party chairman. "While not much from a political perspective, it's symbolic. It's an important position."
The dominoes began to fall Jan. 6, when District Attorney Risa Vetri Ferman, a Republican, announced she would run for a judicial seat instead of a third term leading the prosecutors' office.
Within hours, her first assistant, Democrat Kevin Steele, launched a bid to replace her. The next day, former District Attorney Bruce Castor, a Republican, announced he would run to regain his old job, thereby vacating his important minority seat on the Board of Commissioners.
But the bigger news came when Gov.-elect Tom Wolf named Richards his choice for transportation secretary.
That left Commissioners Chairman Josh Shapiro seeking not only an immediate replacement for Richards, but also a strong running mate to ensure Democrats retain the board majority - and control of county government - that had eluded them for 150 years before Shapiro and Richards won in 2011.
That shouldn't be hard to do now that Democrats have grown to have an 8.3-percentage point lead in voter registration.
But Madonna said the county hadn't shifted so far as to put Republicans out of the running.
"You can't rule out Republicans winning with the right set of candidates," he said. "It's not like Philly, where the Republicans have virtually no chance" - or even like the Montgomery County of previous decades, where Democrats had virtually no chance.
Despite some high-profile missteps leading the prosecutor's office - and a politically fraught leak case against Attorney General Kathleen Kane potentially landing on her desk - Ferman is the candidate most likely to coast to a win, political observers say.
"Even today, I think Risa is very popular," said Groen. "Of all the judicial candidates, she certainly has the most name recognition. By far."
A Ferman win would be significant for Republicans, who sank much of their 2013 campaign effort into the races for two Common Pleas Court seats but lost both to Democrats.
Arguably the closest race will be for district attorney, pitting Ferman's former mentor against her mentee.
Castor has huge name recognition from his two terms as district attorney and two terms as commissioner - and some negative associations after a failed bid for attorney general and bitter fights with his own party leaders.
Steele, as Ferman's top aide, has prosecuted many of the county's highest-profile cases in recent years. Although Steele arguably bears some culpability in the bungling of two important cases on Ferman's watch, Madonna said, Republicans might be reluctant to press Steele on it because doing so might blow back onto Ferman's judicial campaign.
Steele and Castor are well-respected in legal circles, and even their political adversaries say they are well-suited to the role. Thus far, they have no challengers within their own parties.
For the rest of the seats, Groen and Vereb are busy reviewing, interviewing, and narrowing down their party's nominees. Groen said he had 24 names, Vereb about 15.
One key for Republicans will be retaining the Controller's Office, after Stewart Greenleaf Jr. announced Wednesday he would not seek reelection - or any other elective office - in 2015.
County judges will appoint a replacement to fill out Richards' commissioner term. If they follow tradition, they will select the person Democrats recommend - who would also be Shapiro's running mate.
Republicans will put up two commissioner candidates, but Madonna said the best-case scenario might be "they win one or two judgeships, and they're guaranteed one of the commissioners' seats."
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