Poll: Clinton's lead over Trump shrinks in Pa.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's post-convention bounce has deflated a bit among registered voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll.
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's post-convention bounce has deflated a bit among registered voters in Pennsylvania, according to a new Franklin and Marshall College poll.
Clinton leads Republican nominee Donald Trump by 7 percentage points, 47 percent to 40 percent, among likely voters, the poll released Thursday showed.
Her lead is smaller, 43 percent to 39 percent, among registered voters.
The poll of 736 registered voters, conducted from Aug. 25 to 29, has a sample error of 4.6 percent.
Clinton held an 11-point lead over Trump among likely voters in a poll released by Franklin and Marshall on Aug. 4, the week after she accepted the Democratic nomination at her party's convention in Philadelphia.
"The big take-away for me is this poll and others show the race tightening," pollster G. Terry Madonna said. "I'm not suggesting that Trump's going to carry the state. It's still a pretty big hurdle."
The poll also shows Democrat Katie McGinty, Gov. Wolf's former chief of staff, with a 5-point lead - 43 percent to 38 percent - among likely voters in her race against U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey, a Lehigh County Republican seeking a second term in the Nov. 8 general election.
That race is "essentially tied," the poll said, with McGinty at 36 percent and Toomey at 37 percent among registered voters.
(A Monmouth University poll released this week had Clinton leading Trump by 8 percentage points and McGinty building a 4-point advantage over Toomey.)
Madonna attributes Clinton's recent slide to a spate of continuing and revived controversies - her use of private email as secretary of state and allegations of opportunism by the Clinton Foundation, run by her daughter, Chelsea, and husband, former President Bill Clinton.
Trump, comparatively, has dialed back on some of his rhetoric. But can he sustain that discipline?
"He can't go for long without being controversial," Madonna said.
Trump has managed to move the needle in his favor when it comes to voters in Southeastern Pennsylvania and women.
The Aug. 4 poll showed him lagging Clinton in the southeast 60 percent to 20 percent. Thursday's poll shows her lead there shrinking to 45 percent to 31 percent.
Female voters in the Aug. 4 poll supported Clinton 58 percent to 27 percent. That shrinks to 47 percent to 37 percent in Thursday's poll.
"So he's doing better in that regard," Madonna said. "I think that's pretty important."
Still, Clinton holds strong leads in the most populous parts of Pennsylvania's 67 counties. History, including President Obama's 2008 and 2012 victories, shows a Democrat can win the state there, Madonna said.
"Democrats don't have to win 20, 25 counties," he said. "They only have to do well in 13, particularly the six where you would expect the Democrats to do well in."
Those six are Philadelphia, the surrounding four suburban counties, and Allegheny County.
Trump, as in other recent state and national polls, is doing poorly with non-white voters, who support Clinton 70 percent to 25 percent.
Blacks make up about 13 percent of the registered voters while Hispanics are about 7 percent. The combined 20 percent is "not insignificant" to the outcome, Madonna said.
In the Senate race, Madonna credits McGinty's lead among likely voters to the lead Clinton has established in the state.
"She did not lead in the polls before Clinton got that sizable lead," Madonna said. "Still, there are huge amounts of people who haven't made up their minds. There's still a lot of latitude left there."
More than one in four - 27 percent - of the registered voters had not decided on which candidate to support.
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@ByChrisBrennan