Call it 'Superficial' Tuesday

ONCE UPON A TIME, Super Tuesday was the Super Bowl of presidential primary politics - the day that nominees were made and pretenders to the throne got crushed.

But in the muddled year of 2012, tomorrow's GOP showdown in 10 states feels more like the fifth week of a grueling 16-game regular season.

Even the key, neck-and-neck battleground state of Ohio - where ex-Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum hopes to make his case as a champion of working-class Republicans - won't decide who gets the big stage in Tampa, Fla., in August.

Why not? There are far fewer delegates at stake this Super Tuesday than in the past, and rule changes mean that - unlike past elections - only a handful of the 2012 contests are winner-take-all.

Even though current front-runner Mitt Romney is all but guaranteed to extend his lead by picking up the most delegates, there's also little incentive for rivals Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul to leave the race before a flurry of major primaries in June.

"It's a Clark Kent 'Super Tuesday,' " said Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia history professor and political pundit, referring to the day's downsizing.

Still, tomorrow's result will likely shape the future of the GOP race. Here's a look at the strategies and the states.

What Romney needs to do: The former Massachusetts governor needs to keep grinding out delegates on his march to the magic clinching number of 1,144, and he surely will do that.

Credit good organization and money. Only Romney and Paul qualified for the ballot in the key state of Virginia, and he's considered a lock for all 46 delegates. In Ohio, Romney has a delegate slate in every congressional district but Santorum doesn't, so Romney probably will win more delegates even if he loses the popular vote.

The bad news is that while Romney's grind-out-delegates strategy makes him the favorite to win the nomination, the long primary slog is forcing him to woo conservative voters in a way that's alienating moderate independents he needs to defeat President Obama in the fall.

What Santorum needs to do: Win the Buckeye State.

The conservative culture warrior is favored in two states with large evangelical populations - Oklahoma and Tennessee - but Santorum has spent the most time and money in Ohio, a critical general election battleground.

That's because Santorum's chief argument for his electability is that his down-to-earth persona and his plan for rebuilding manufacturing will reach blue-collar voters - while the stiff multimillionaire Romney can't. He needs to prove that in Ohio, the heart of the Rust Belt.

"If Santorum wins Ohio, this thing continues for a long time," said Neil Oxman, a Democratic campaign strategist, adding that he'll also need to curb his habit of stirring up controversy with outlandish remarks on social issues.

What Gingrich needs to do: Hold onto his home state of Georgia, at the minimum.

After humbling losses in Florida, Nevada and elsewhere, Gingrich is relying on a Southern strategy, hoping he can parlay an expected victory in Georgia into momentum for next week's primaries in Mississippi and Alabama. That keeps Gingrich in the race and in the conversation, although it's still hard to see his path to the nomination.

What Paul needs to do: Collect more delegates.

Like his pal Romney, Paul's plan is geared more toward the delegate count than winning popular votes. But his focus is on the smaller caucus states like Alaska and North Dakota, where his dedicated following turns out in greater numbers. His goal is not to gain the nomination but traction for his ideas, such as abolishing the Federal Reserve Bank.

Here's a roll call of the states:

Ohio: Up for grabs are 63 delegates. The latest NBC/Marist poll, released yesterday, shows Santorum with a statistically insignificant lead over Romney, 34 to 32 percent, with Gingrich (15 percent) and Paul (13 percent) trailing.

But a Santorum win here might mean more psychologically than in the more critical task of amassing delegates. His failure to field any delegates in three congressional districts, and only partial slates in six others, highlights the weak organization of his poorly funded crusade.

Virginia: Here again, the headline is not so much Romney's popularity as the massive failure by Santorum and Gingrich in not qualifying for the ballot. Yesterday's Marist/NBC poll shows the former Massachusetts governor crushing Paul, 69-26 percent, and all but certain to win all 49 delegates.

Georgia: It's rare that you hear of good news for the struggling Gingrich, but the NBC/Marist poll shows the former House speaker leading with 38 percent, well ahead of Romney (24 percent), Santorum (22 percent) and Paul (only 3 percent). Its 76 delegates are awarded proportionally.

Tennessee: Outside of Ohio, this might be the most contested race - a border state between Santorum's Rust Belt appeal and Gingrich's wooing of the old Confederacy. An American Research Group poll yesterday showed Santorum at 35 percent, Romney at 31 percent, Gingrich at 20 percent and Paul with 9 percent. Its 58 delegates will be divided proportionally.

Oklahoma: One of the country's most conservative states is expected to be fertile territory for Santorum. An ARG survey released Saturday showed the Pennsylvanian at 37 percent, with Romney (24 percent) Gingrich (22 percent) and Paul (9 percent) trailing. The state's 43 delegates are elected proportionally.

Massachusetts, Vermont: Massachusetts (41 delegates) is one of Romney's 17 home states (just kidding, there are really only five) and he's expected to win handily. As Massachusetts goes, so goes Vermont (17 delegates).

Idaho, North Dakota, Alaska: All three are caucus states with libertarian streaks and a lot of social conservatives - fertile ground for Paul and Santorum to pick off delegates. The three states send 87 of them to Tampa.

What's next: Gingrich focuses on Alabama and Mississippi (March 13); Santorum eyes Missouri caucuses (March 17) and the Illinois primary (March 20), and Romney looks to scoop up delegates everywhere and anywhere.