The second quarter fundraising reports disclosed Friday underscore the make-or-break moment some in the Republican presidential field will face in the months ahead.
Tim Pawlenty, especially, heads into the Iowa GOP straw poll next month in Ames with a modest sum in the bank and in urgent need of a strong performance to stock his war chest.
The former Minnesota governor, who kicks off an 18-city RV tour in Iowa next week, must have something to show to his donors or he risks going broke.
Pawlenty reported having $1.4 million cash on hand for the primary as of the end of last month, but he’s spent significantly since then on TV, radio and direct mail in Iowa as part of an effort to boost his support ahead of Ames. So in effect he’s betting most of what’s left of his money on the straw poll.
A win or something approximating success there could give him a burst of momentum and fill his coffers. A poor showing will make it difficult for him to keep the lights on at his campaign headquarters.
“He’s going to either get gallons of gasoline or gallons of H2O on his fire,” said unaligned GOP consultant Brad Todd. “He won’t be the same the next day no matter what.”
The straw poll has traditionally winnowed the GOP presidential field – prompting candidates such as Lamar Alexander in 1999 and Sam Brownback in 2007 to quit – but bolstered the prospects of others such as Mike Huckabee four years ago.
The Minnesotan’s campaign is attempting to dampen expectations ahead of the event, insisting that they only have to move up from their middle-of-the-pack placement in the polls.
“We’ve said all along that we need to show progress and we’re confident that we will,” said Pawlenty spokesman Alex Conant.
Rick Santorum’s challenge is just as acute as the one facing Pawlenty. He had just under $225,000 at the end of June and is making little progress in Iowa polls. Failure at the straw poll would only reinforce the idea that the former Pennsylvania senator’s campaign is not catching on and force him to decide between dropping out or trudging forward and risking going into the red.
Newt Gingrich may have the most dire financial situation of all, though. As POLITICO first reported earlier this month, the former House speaker’s troubled campaign has over $1 million in debt. Half of that, according to his report, is owed to charter jet services.
Gingrich isn’t contesting Ames, however, and continues to mix promotion of his documentaries with a campaign heavy on TV and radio interviews. So even though he’s facing significant debt and has plunged in the polls, it’s unclear what would prompt him to quit the race. He reported having $322,000 on hand.
Herman Cain, who placed third in Iowa in a Des Moines Register poll late last month, burned through all the money he raised but still has $481,000 on hand thanks to a $500,000 loan he made to his effort. Because the former Godfathers Pizza CEO can self-fund, he may able to sustain a campaign even without a breakout performance at Ames.
On the other side of the ledger are a trio of candidates with either lower burn rates, greater reserves or both: former Massachusetts Gov. and field frontrunner Mitt Romney, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who is surging on Romney’s right flank, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the longshot whose stardom in the libertarian world has fueled his strong fundraising.
Romney has maintained a robust organization since he unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2008 and the $18.4 million he raised in the second quarter was more than four times greater than the next biggest haul, Paul’s $4.5 million.
And though Romney also exponentially outspent the field, he finished the quarter with by far the largest cash-on-hand tally: $12.7 million.
Bachmann had the next biggest presidential account at the end of June: $3.4 million.
But that owed largely to the $2 million she transferred from her congressional campaign account, which she has methodically built into a well-oiled fundraising machine during her 4 ½ years in Congress.
In the second quarter she raised $2.6 million for the House account but had only $266,000 left after transferring the $2 million to the presidential committee and spending another $3.1 million, much of it towards fundraising.
Federal election rules allow Bachmann to transfer unlimited sums between her personal committees, though she’ll likely wind down her congressional committee.
Paul also has cash in his congressional campaign account - $1.6 million at the end of June – and he has declared that he will not run for reelection to the House, making it easy for him to transfer it to a presidential campaign.
His $4.5-million presidential haul was boosted by only a $500 transfer from his congressional committee and he spent only $1.6 million to raise it, giving him a relatively low burn rate.
Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman’s campaign said he raised $4.1 million through the end of June, with up to half coming from his own checkbook, but they won’t file a report until this fall because they got in late.
Some of the campaigns flashing fiscal warning signs invested heavily in the type of donor prospecting and list-building essential for the cash flow to support a presidential campaign – but didn’t seem to get significant results.
Pawlenty’s campaign, which raised $2.6 million for the quarter, stands out as having spent substantially on fundraising infrastructure without reaping commensurate benefits—so far.













