Corbett: 'I know we're going to win'

IN 167 DAYS, Tom Corbett makes history.

He's either the state's first incumbent governor to lose, or he's the state's first incumbent anything to rise from the politically dead.

You know his predicament.

After three-plus years in office, the Republican former prosecutor is known for education cuts, refusing to expand Medicaid, declining to tax gas drillers, pushing voter ID, trying to privatize the lottery and offending women, Hispanics and gays with public gaffes that drew national attention.

This in a state where Democrats favor more school funding, expanded Medicaid, a tax on drillers, no voter ID and no privatization and outnumber Republicans by more than 1 million votes, including significant blocs of women, Hispanics and gays.

At the same time, Corbett so far has failed to get two of his three priorities - pension reform, liquor reform - through a Legislature of his own party, and managed to alienate Penn State Nation in connection with the Jerry Sandusky case and the firing of Joe Paterno.

Corbett did get a $2 billion transportation bill for bridges, highways and SEPTA. But it hikes vehicle fees and wholesale gas prices, irritating some conservatives who say it breaks Corbett's 2010 pledge of no new taxes, no new fees.

He's angered the left, disappointed the right and stayed largely aloof from the public.

You can see why he polls around "you've got to be kidding" and is rated America's most vulnerable governor.

Can you see the rest of the story?

I sat down with Corbett to see for myself. My first questions: Why do you deserve re-election, and how do you intend to pursue it?

"The answer's the same to both," he says. "I made promises to the people of Pennsylvania and I've kept them: less taxes, more jobs, reduce the size of government."

His campaign, he says, intends "to educate the voter."

"I'd be lying if I said it doesn't bother me" to be viewed a likely loser, but, he adds with some swagger in his voice, "I know we're going to win."

Think it's impossible? Don't.

Midterm elections are low-turnout affairs. Only once since the 1930s has a Pennsylvania governor won election or re-election as a member of the same party holding the White House.

That's 18 of 19 elections. That's 95 percent of the time.

And that tells you Corbett will nationalize the race. And talk big picture.

Democrat Obama's big government bad; Republican Corbett's fiscal discipline good.

So he points to reduced unemployment, down to 5.7 percent from 8.2 percent a month before he took office. He argues that comparing job growth with other states (ours is dismal) isn't really fair since "populations differ."

He calls cutting government jobs and services "efficiencies" to save taxpayers hundreds of millions of dollars.

He says education spending is at its highest level ever, though he concedes that's a case he needs to make statewide.

"I love watching everybody saying, 'Spend more money on education,' " he says, "How much? What is that level?"

He's feisty and clearly in campaign mode.

He softened his stance on health care for the poor, dropping a work-search requirement. He softened opposition to medical marijuana. He's not appealing a court ruling against voter ID. And he called for a fair-funding formula for schools, albeit after three years of taking heat for cuts.

And the big pitch?

"Who's changed Harrisburg more?" he asks.

I offer a snarky, "You mean for the worse?"

But he's on a roll.

He ticks off "Bonusgate" and other legislative scandals that sent Capitol insiders and lawmakers to prison on charges he pressed as attorney general. He adds fighting child predators, which he emphasized as A.G.

As governor, he ended WAMs (walking-around money), the practice of giving lawmakers projects in exchange for votes. And, he stresses, he controlled government costs, as promised.

So he has a case. History's on his side. And in 167 days, we'll see what kind of history he makes.

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