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Christie's dilemma: Placeholder or longterm solution to Lautenberg seat?

Gov. Chris Christie faces a dilemma that only Thomas Kean Sr. and Jon Corzine have faced in New Jersey since 1982: appointing a temporary fill-in for a U.S. Senate seat.

And the question is: Should he go the Kean route and appoint a placeholder until the next regularly scheduled Senate election (there's actually some legal confusion about whether an election would be held in Nov. 2013 or in Nov. 2014) or should Christie opt for the Corzine strategy and appoint a strong candidate that can run as a favorite on the same ticket as him in November?

Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray said Kean and Corzine were reacting to their own political environments.

  1. Kean chose a placeholder in 1982 — novice politician Nicholas Brady — because he had barely been in office three months after winning a tight election, Murray said. Brady was the last Republican to represent New Jersey in the Senate. The man who was elected to Brady's short-lived seat? A man named Lautenberg.

  1. Corzine appointed Robert Menendez under a much more comfortable political climate, Murray said. Menendez, still in the Senate, obviously then went on to win re-election.

Murray thinks Christie is in a position much more similar to Corzine than Kean.

"This is probably the best chance New Jersey Republicans have to win a seat in the Senate, since well, 1982," Murray said. "This actually changes the calculus of the race (if a special election is held this year) because this person is going to be riding the coattails of Christie as he runs for re-election."

Newark Mayor Corey Booker was expected to be the favorite in a 2014 general election against a Republican field with much less name recognition in the heavily Democratic electorate.

But a Christie appointee in the next couple weeks would have several months of service in the Senate to use as election resume fodder against Booker or another Democrat (a few congressmen like Rob Andrews or Rush Holt may try for the Senate seat if the election is this year because they wouldn't have to resign their current job in the U.S. House).

"There is pressure on Christie not to go too far outside the box because he needs to appoint someone who could hold onto the seat," Murray said.

Among the likely names are Thomas Kean Jr., who ran a strong losing campaign for Lautenberg's seat in 2006; Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who proved she could stump very well during Christie's first election victory; and Joe Kyrillos, a state senator who has strong legislative qualifications but finished with poor results in his challenge to Menendez in 2012.