For Toomey, Trump remains the elephant in the race

As election season kicked into full swing last week, Sen. Pat Toomey (R., Pa.) came out of the gates with a news conference attacking his rival over taxes.

The first question from reporters? One asking whether he would support Donald Trump.

Toomey held to the delicate position he has maintained for months: He hopes to support the GOP presidential nominee, but is "waiting to be persuaded."

Hit with more questions, a seemingly irritated Toomey said: "I'm not here to talk about someone else's campaign."

The Trump campaign, however, may have a decisive impact on Toomey's race against Democrat Katie McGinty, and on who controls the Senate.

And Toomey keeps getting questions, including on Monday, when he tried to focus another media event on federal ethanol policy, and faced more queries about whether he would endorse Trump.

The divisive presidential nominee has threatened to make an already difficult task even tougher for Toomey and other Republicans running in swing states, where GOP officials worry that big Trump losses could also wipe out fellow Republicans on the ballot.

"Pat Toomey has done a very good job managing those things within his control," said U.S. Rep. Charlie Dent, an Allentown Republican. "The challenge for Pat Toomey will be those things outside his control."

People close to Toomey typically offer the same assessment: He's done all he can. The sentiment praises his political acumen, but tacitly acknowledges it might not be enough.

Other Senate Republicans in tough races, wary of offending Trump supporters but trying to maintain some distance from him, also have staked out awkward stances.

New Hampshire's Kelly Ayotte has said she will support Trump - but not endorse him. Wisconsin's Ron Johnson backs Trump, but has pitched his own candidacy as a check on a Clinton presidency.

Always a factor, electoral forces from the top of the ticket are even more unpredictable with such an unconventional candidate leading the way.

Republicans still cringe over the damage done by Trump's summer feud with the parents of a slain soldier. He needs to stay close to Clinton in Pennsylvania - within 5 percentage points or so - for Toomey to have a reasonable chance, operatives in both parties said.

"To run 8, 9 points ahead of the top of the ticket, that's very hard," said Jim Gerlach, a former Republican congressman from Chester County who now heads the Business-Industry Political Action Committee, which has endorsed Toomey. "To some degree, all the candidates down-ballot need Donald Trump to do better."

GOP fears spiked in August as Clinton surged to double-digit leads in Pennsylvania polls, a jump that coincided with McGinty erasing an early Toomey advantage.

Their concern has eased as polls show a tightening presidential race. A Quinnipiac University survey released Thursday found Clinton's Pennsylvania lead down to 5 points, and Toomey and McGinty statistically even.

But GOP optimism is tempered.

Trump has closed the gap because Clinton, also deeply unpopular, has bled support - not because he has won more backing, public polls show.

His support remains stuck in the high 30s or low 40s in most Pennsylvania surveys, leaving some Republicans worrying he has hit his ceiling, and that Clinton could still score a big win.

"At some point [Trump] becomes that beached whale - he can't move himself back into the water and she can't pull him further up onto the beach," said Mark Dion, who heads a Toomey-allied Super PAC, Prosperity for Pennsylvania.

Clinton now faces questions over her health and recent comments demeaning many Trump supporters, although she is still favored in the Keystone State and has not created as much angst for fellow Democrats as Trump has for Republicans.

If Clinton carries Pennsylvania, as the last six Democratic presidential nominees, Toomey will need to win over a number of her supporters to keep his seat. But if the margin grows, at some point there won't be enough swing votes to do it.

Still, 10 officials, consultants, and operatives in both parties said in interviews last week that the Senate race remains close enough that either candidate could prevail.

Trump might help Toomey in conservative parts of the state, but internal polls for both parties show he is toxic in the moderate counties bordering Philadelphia, a populous area that can swing statewide races.

"All across the suburbs we're seeing the same story. ... Trump's numbers are in the 20s or 30s," said Joe Corrigan, a Democratic consultant from Delaware County.

Similar worries have trailed Republicans across the country, where they are defending 24 Senate seats, against 10 for the Democrats.

Democrats need to gain five seats to control the Senate, or four if they win the White House and have the tie-breaking vice presidential vote.

With Democrats heavily favored in Senate races in Illinois and Wisconsin, and Republicans pulling well ahead in Ohio, the battle now appears to hinge on Pennsylvania, Indiana, New Hampshire, and Nevada.

Toomey has tried to focus the race on local issues and McGinty. He argues that voters will distinguish his race from the presidential contest, though recent trends show that more and more voters pick candidates from the same party for president and senate.

Despite the senator's cautious stand, McGinty relishes attacking the what she calls the Trump-Toomey ticket.

"It's not credible that a sitting U.S. senator has not heard enough from Donald Trump to make up his mind," she said last week.

While McGinty has gained in polls, she remains little known, giving both sides an opening - her to woo Clinton backers, Toomey to discredit her.

"It's going to be a race between the two campaigns now to see who can fix an image of McGinty" in voters' minds, said Michael Hagen, a Temple University political scientist.

McGinty has drawn Democratic star power: Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) rallied with her Friday in Philadelphia, and Bernie Sanders will campaign for her in Pittsburgh this week.

Republicans say she will be exposed as a weak candidate in fall debates and are planning a TV barrage to undercut her.

"There's going to be a lot more of an effort to define Katie McGinty," said Ian Prior, a spokesman for the Senate Leadership Fund, a Super PAC aiding Senate Republicans.

The group has reserved $6.2 million of airtime in Pennsylvania in October.

A critical question is whether Republicans disillusioned with the top of the ticket stay home on Election Day, costing Toomey votes. Trump has virtually no get-out-the-vote operation in Pennsylvania, party officials say.

Clinton, by contrast, has linked her campaign with that of other Democrats, hoping that on the way to the White House she can help carry the Senate.

jtamari@phillynews.com

@JonathanTamari

www.philly.com/capitolinq Staff writer Justine McDaniel contributed to this article.