Turnout key in Delco special election for Pa. House seat
If past is prologue, Republican Chris Quinn, 44, will win Tuesday's special election for a state House seat in a district that has never elected a Democrat.
If past is prologue, Republican Chris Quinn, 44, will win Tuesday's special election for a state House seat in a district that has never elected a Democrat.
"I'm running for state legislature because I think I can balance a budget," says Quinn, who serves on Middletown Township's council. "I think I understand what people are looking for."
But Democrat Diane Cornman-Levy, 55, who runs an educational nonprofit, believes that voters are looking for something new, and thus she stands a good chance of breaking the GOP's hold on the 168th District, which consists of some of Delaware County's wealthier towns.
"I have been knocking on a lot of doors, ... and people want change," she said. "We don't have a government that is appropriately balanced between Democrats and Republicans."
From 7 a.m. to 8 p.m., voters will choose either Quinn or Cornman-Levy to fill the seat, which became vacant in May when Republican Thomas Killion was elected to the Pennsylvania Senate in another special election. The winner will serve until January, and regardless of who wins, both candidates will square off again for a two-year term again in November.
Quinn, who owns an insurance firm, says that he views tax increases as a "last resort" in paying for the state's $31.5 billion budget. Corman-Levy believes the state needs to generate more revenue and supports raising the minimum wage.
Republicans control the state house by a 35-seat margin, so the election would have a minimal impact on the balance of power in Harrisburg.
But it might offer a glimpse into how political dynamics are changing in a county where Republicans dominated politics for a century. In a historic change, in 2013 Democrats edged past Republicans in registrations and have made gains since. However the GOP still occupies every elected county-level position and maintains a 51-to-36 percent registration advantage in the 168th.
Nevertheless, Democrats have a shot, says party Chairman David Landau. "There are ticket-splitting Republicans in this district," he said, noting the district gave nearly half of its vote to Democratic Gov. Wolf in 2014.
Given that special elections receive far less attention and draw fewer voters, Landau holds that ultimately this one won't be about parties and issues so much as getting people out to the polls.
"I don't think it's any kind of dry run for the presidential election," he said. "It's simply going to be a matter of turnout."
Landau pointed to state representative Leanne Krueger-Braneky (D-Swarthmore) as evidence that Democrats can win. Krueger-Braneky surprised political observers in 2015 by winning a district where registered Republicans outnumber Democrats, also in a summertime special election.
Andy Reilly, who leads the Delaware County Republican Party, agreed that the party's registration edge might not confer an automatic advantage, particularly given the anticipated low turnout.
"There's ample enough voters on each side to win the election," Reilly said.
But he said that last summer's defeat was a fluke, attributable to the fact that Krueger-Braneky-who won with 48 percent-ran against two conservative candidates who split the right-leaning vote.
Reilly was confident this race would be different.
"I think our odds are good," he said.
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