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Sagging polls knock Christie off debate's main stage

Gov. Christie was sent down to the minors Thursday. The New Jersey governor was bumped from next week's main GOP presidential debate after failing to muster enough support in national polls to qualify.

Chris Christie speaks during the CNBC Republican presidential debate at the University of Colorado, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015, in Boulder, Colo.
Chris Christie speaks during the CNBC Republican presidential debate at the University of Colorado, Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2015, in Boulder, Colo.Read moreAP Photo / Mark J. Terrill

Gov. Christie was sent down to the minors Thursday.

The New Jersey governor was bumped from next week's main GOP presidential debate after failing to muster enough support in national polls to qualify.

Christie did not meet the threshold set by Fox Business Network, which required candidates to average at least 2.5 percent support among likely Republican voters in the four most recent national polls that met its criteria to qualify for Tuesday's debate in Milwaukee.

The network announced the lineup Thursday night, and Christie fell short.

The New Jersey governor qualified instead for the undercard debate - which required at least 1 percent support in polls - along with former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal. South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and former New York Gov. George Pataki failed to make the cut even for the second-tier event.

The main stage will feature eight candidates - down from 10 in last week's CNBC debate.

Political analysts described the demotion as a blow to Christie's campaign, though not necessarily a fatal one.

"It is clearly harmful," said Julian Zelizer, professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. "At this stage of the competition, attention is the goal, so losing some of that headline time is harmful."

But while "it's bad and a challenge, it's not insurmountable," Zelizer said.

Facing off with fewer people, Christie may get more airtime in the lower-tier debate, Zelizer said. And "the modern media environment allows YouTube clips of either debate to become the focus of discussion."

Christie sought to capitalize on such a YouTube moment this week. A video clip of the governor on the campaign trail in New Hampshire talking about the need to treat drug addiction went viral, netting nearly six million views on Facebook as of Thursday.

The clip, posted by the Huffington Post, featured Christie telling a story he's repeatedly shared in New Jersey: that of a law-school friend who became addicted to painkillers and died last year.

While the story - and focus on treating addiction - wasn't new for Christie, the national attention it received was.

"Chris Christie is having the unlikeliest of moments in the 2016 race," read a Washington Post headline, with writer Chris Cillizza opining that it was "possible - possible, not probable - that this HuffPo video could mark the moment when Christie started to make his comeback."

Asked for comment Thursday night on the news that Christie had not made the main-stage cut, a campaign spokeswoman quoted a Tweet from Christie's account.

"It doesn't matter the stage, give me a podium and I'll be there to talk about real issues like this," Christie said - with a link to the Huffington Post video.

The debate news landed while Christie was on the campaign trail in New Hampshire. He got the endorsement Thursday of Walt Havenstein, a former defense-industry CEO who was the unsuccessful Republican candidate for governor in New Hampshire last year. Havenstein had been backed by Christie, who was then the head of the Republican Governors Association.

On Friday, Christie is scheduled to file to get on the ballot in New Hampshire.

The governor has recorded some polling gains lately in the first-in-the-nation primary state, including a rise from 2 percent to 8 percent in a WBUR poll released this week of likely New Hampshire GOP primary voters - though Christie's gain wasn't far off the margin of error, which was 4.9 percentage points.

A more significant shift has occurred in how favorably those voters view him. A Monmouth University poll released Monday found that 54 percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire view Christie favorably, and 32 percent unfavorably.

In Monmouth's September poll, the balance was flipped: 38 percent of likely GOP voters viewed him favorably, and 46 percent unfavorably.

"There's an argument to be made" that Christie "is getting a second look," said Fergus Cullen, a former New Hampshire GOP chairman who is uncommitted.

Still, Cullen said, the perception of losing his spot on the debate stage could hurt Christie.

"We're at a stage now in the nominating process where voters are ruling candidates out," he said. "If you give them a reason to rule somebody out, like they've been demoted from the major leagues to the minor leagues, there's just no recovery from that. That's the risk."

mhanna@phillynews.com

856-779-3232@maddiehanna

www.philly.com/christiechronicles