Katie McGinty's tug-of-war

LET'S TAKE a peek inside Katie McGinty's tug of war.

We know there is one. Otherwise she'd simply say, "I am not a candidate for U.S. Senate."

That would end speculation that started in May, after Montco Commissioner Josh Shapiro said he won't run against Republican Pat Toomey next year.

So, just the fact that McGinty's not talking shows, as one source close to her put it, she's "seriously, seriously considering."

She needs to make a decision soon because as Gov. Wolf's chief of staff she's a distraction to the many distractions keeping the governor and GOP lawmakers from agreeing on a now three-week-late budget.

And with no budget deal in sight, now's a good time for her to get out.

Question is, will she or won't she?

Ed Rendell puts the odds at 70 to 30 she's running.

"They're doing a tough sell in Washington," Rendell tells me.

He means top Democratic senators are anxious to find an alternative to Joe Sestak, the only active challenger to Toomey's efforts for a second term.

Sestak narrowly lost to Toomey in 2010, a Republican year that saw Tom Corbett elected governor and the GOP win nationwide, including control of the U.S. House.

But Sestak, a former Navy admiral, a former congressman from the Philly 'burbs, is politically roguish, won't play nice with party leaders and is described by many as initially impressive but ultimately annoying, cloying and weird.

I'd note this latter description hardly makes him unique in the panoply of politics.

But back to the tug of war.

The argument for a McGinty run is this:

Our state is blue in presidential years. It has one million-plus more Democrats than Republicans. With Hillary Clinton at the top of ticket, a theme can be "make history twice": first female president; first female Pennsylvania senator.

Also, McGinty's from Philly, a heavy Democratic base that turns out in presidential elections. She has ties from past jobs to Bill Clinton and Al Gore. She's disciplined and good in debates. Money will flow from the likes of Emily's List and the National Organization for Women.

The argument against a McGinty candidacy?

Rendell says she faces "two tough elections to win."

Sestak is fierce. The state has nearly a million veterans (only California, Texas and New York have more). He beat one of the most aggressive campaigners ever, the late Arlen Specter, to win his last primary fight.

And if McGinty gets past Sestak, Toomey's no pushover.

Even if Pennsylvania stays blue and votes Clinton, the state often ticket-splits in presidential years that also have a Senate race.

Since the 1970s, in four out of seven such elections, it voted for a Democrat for president but a Republican for senator.

(Kerry/Specter; Gore/Santorum; Clinton/Specter; Carter/Heinz.)

And don't forget Pennsylvania's record with women: never a governor; never a senator.

Plus, McGinty, while accomplished, savvy and smart, finished last in the 2014 four-way primary for governor, behind Wolf, Allyson Schwartz and Rob McCord.

And I mean distant last, as in single digits, 50 points behind the winner.

The risk of losing statewide twice in just two cycles can create labels such as, well, "loser." It's a risk most politicians don't have the nads to take.

Still, campaigns and elections differ. They're like windows. They open, they close.

A little more than a year ago, state Attorney General Kathleen Kane was touted as the Democrat to take on Toomey. That window closed.

Right now a window is open for McGinty. She has the option of buying into blue state/Hillary think, which means she goes. Or if she looks at players and past patterns, she could see a message that suggests, "Katie, bar the door."

Either way her tug of war needs to end soon.

Blog: ph.ly/BaerGrowls

Columns: ph.ly/JohnBaer