Pat Toomey's early (quiet) pitch for reelection

PAT TOOMEY'S Running a TV ad in Philly about fighting child predators.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is running a TV ad for Toomey, "a true leader fighting for Pennsylvania."

Toomey just wrote an Inquirer opinion piece pushing his child-protection bill.

It's a kidz-&-biz tour; the start of the freshman Republican senator's run for re-election - next year.

But Toomey's not talking about it. He declined an interview. His campaign says he's focused on his legislation.

So let's look at his legislation and the early ads.

His ad's a tad disingenuous.

It touts his efforts to require schools to conduct extensive background checks on anybody working with kids.

Sounds great, right?

Pennsylvania already has such a law.

His legislation also requires schools to report evidence of abuse by employees leaving one district to work in another, an attempt to prevent "passing the trash."

Also a great idea. Also Pennsylvania law.

The difference is Toomey's proposal would apply to states without such laws and require all states to prevent "passing the trash" to Pennsylvania.

The problem is Toomey's bill, to be offered as an amendment to a redo of the No Child Left Behind Act, failed before and likely will again.

It's opposed by the National Education Association, the nation's biggest teachers' union. Burdensome mandates, don't you know.

But Toomey touting his efforts in a state where fighting child-sex abuse became a cause célèbre after the Penn State/Jerry Sandusky scandal is smart politics.

His measure is mostly redundant and appears unlikely to pass - so accept it as a campaign talking point akin to saying, "I like children."

(Which probably plays better than a video of Joe Sestak running over a pair of kids while walking in a July 4 parade, which you can watch at americarisingpac.org.)

As to why Toomey's got ads for a campaign a year away, that's smart, too.

The Washington Post rates Toomey's seat one of 10 "most likely" to be flipped in 2016.

The Hill predicts his race will be one of the nation's 10 "fiercest."

And while University of Virginia political guru Larry Sabato sees the state "leaning" for Toomey, independent polling suggests some vulnerability.

A Franklin & Marshall poll puts Toomey's favorable rating at 34 percent, 9 points lower than President Obama's.

And in a head-to-head matchup with currently presumed Democratic nominee Sestak, Toomey only leads 35-31, which is within the poll's margin of error.

"He's not as strong in Pennsylvania as he'd like to be," says state Democratic Party chairman Jim Burn, "and he has every right to be anxious."

Democrats, with a million-plus registration edge, turn out in presidential years. The last GOP presidential candidate to carry the state was George H.W. Bush in 1988.

Toomey beat Sestak by just two points in 2010, a nonpresidential year.

Problem is, few in Democratic power posts actually like Sestak, and a search continues for someone else to challenge Toomey.

Attorney General Kathleen Kane self-destructed; Montco Commissioner Josh Shapiro said "no thanks," and Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski suspended his campaign in the face of a federal probe into his city's contracts.

Gov. Wolf's chief of staff Katie McGinty is mentioned. When I mention it to her, she walks away. I don't see Mayor Nutter, District Attorney Seth Williams or state Sen. Vince Hughes getting in but, hey, it's Pennsylvania. Strange things happen.

Partly, this Dem dilemma is due to Toomey being intelligently engaged on issues from the economy to gridlock to common sense gun control, sometimes working with Democrats.

State GOP chief Rob Gleason says Toomey will be fine and is out early as part of "a strategy of many incumbents around the country to get a jump on challengers."

So that's what Toomey's up to - even if he doesn't want to talk about it.

Blog: ph.ly/BaerGrowls

Columns: ph.ly/JohnBaer