If Tom Wolf equals higher taxes, why is he leading?

TODAY WE examine a basic question in the contest twixt Republican incumbent Gov. Corbett and Democratic newcomer Tom Wolf.

First let's agree that in races for governor, taxes and spending are front and center.

Let's agree that Corbett's less-spending, fewer-taxes approach is popular with a fair percentage of the electorate.

And let's also agree that Corbett's principle argument against Wolf is that he'll raise taxes but won't share details.

"How much Pennsylvanians will pay out of their pocketbooks [if Wolf wins] is the No. 1 issue," Corbett said this week at a Pennsylvania Press Club luncheon. Wolf "wants you to elect him before he tells you how much it is going to cost you," the guv added.

This is a strong message. I mean who (other than Warren Buffett) wants to pay more taxes?

Yet it's apparently not resonating. Why not?

One answer is that education issues rank first in polls on problems facing the state and Corbett's been hammered, he says unfairly, on education.

Still, you'd think the thought of higher taxes under Wolf might move voters to Corbett.

It's not as if the thought is new.

Corbett since July has spent millions on TV ads slamming Wolf for supporting tax increases (that never happened) while revenue secretary under Gov. Ed Rendell and charging that Wolf, as governor, will raise taxes on the middle class.

Wolf calls for a severance tax on natural gas, which Corbett opposes, and for reform of the income tax that Wolf claims means tax breaks for the middle class.

But Wolf's offered few specifics as to what income levels would pay how much.

So why hasn't Corbett's "he'll-raise-yer-taxes" stopped Wolf in his tracks?

I ask two smart political strategists/consultants, each a past chair of their respective parties.

They have different answers - but not all that different.

"It's a great question," says former state GOP chairman Alan Novak, "and it ['he'll raises taxes'] is a great message effectively presented."

Novak says it has helped bring Republicans back to Corbett and tightened the race.

He calls it "baffling" that an incumbent Republican isn't doing well in a year trending GOP: "Perhaps voters made up their minds about people they know, especially incumbent executives . . . that's part of the governor's issue."

He adds, "Voters are saying, 'If I'm angry at Harrisburg, I know how I'm voting.' "

Corbett's the only Republican governor, according to Real Clear Politics polling averages, in a race labeled likely or leaning Democratic.

He also continues to trail Wolf by double digits.

A CBS News/New York Times poll last week and a Franklin & Marshall College/Daily News poll out today both put Wolf's lead at 13 points among likely voters.

"A race like this is always a referendum on the incumbent," says former state Democratic chairman T.J. Rooney, "and any burden of specificity is on Tom Corbett, not Tom Wolf."

Rooney says the "narrative" on Corbett, especially on education, was set some time back and nothing significant happened to change it.

That means attacks on Wolf do little damage, since for many, even a message that Wolf means taxes is coming from what Rooney calls "a disqualified messenger."

Another factor could be that voters expect that a GOP legislature won't raise taxes.

And arguments about education and taxes are not black and white.

Wolf's tax reform, whatever it might be, whoever it might affect, could take years and court fights even if lawmakers agreed to it.

And Corbett's "$1 billion in education cuts" depends on what's counted and reflects the loss of federal stimulus dollars that he didn't replace while cutting business taxes. He did, as claimed, increase education funding due to mandates such as transportation and pension costs.

As to why Wolf's surviving the taxing tag, it could be that the race is a referendum on Corbett and voters have made up their minds, as Rooney and Novak suggest.

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