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Up to Christie who will fill seat

TRENTON - Gov. Christie gained a new power Monday: Senatorial kingmaker. News of the death of Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg set off speculation from Washington to Trenton about whom the Republican governor will choose to fill the Senate seat - and when and how he will make the move. The decision has implications for this year's gubernatorial election, Christie's future as a possible presidential candidate, and the balance of power in Congress.

Frank Lautenberg and Chris Christie
Frank Lautenberg and Chris ChristieRead more

TRENTON - Gov. Christie gained a new power Monday: Senatorial kingmaker.

News of the death of Democratic Sen. Frank Lautenberg set off speculation from Washington to Trenton about whom the Republican governor will choose to fill the Senate seat - and when and how he will make the move. The decision has implications for this year's gubernatorial election, Christie's future as a possible presidential candidate, and the balance of power in Congress.

It also has both parties gearing up for a legal fight over whether the next election for the seat will be this year or 2014.

A wide range of names surfaced as possible choices for Christie, beginning with three Republicans: State Sen. Thomas H. Kean Jr., a former Senate candidate and son and namesake of a popular former governor; State Sen. Joe Kyrillos, Christie's closest friend in the Legislature, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate last year; and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno, who would have to quit and forgo her reelection campaign with Christie to take the job.

Yet Christie has built a reputation as an iconoclastic politician, so insiders floated other names, such as Newark's Democratic mayor, Cory Booker, who is raising money for a candidacy for that very seat, and the elder Kean himself, who could act as a widely respected placeholder until an election was conducted.

Christie is pulled by two conflicting forces: His bipartisan-themed reelection campaign, featuring endorsements from Democrats, and national conservatives, whose concerns were embodied by Monday by a Drudge Report headline, "Whose side are you on?" over a photo of Christie and President Obama.

Along with choosing the next senator, Christie has other powerful cards to play - like when to announce his pick and when to schedule the next election. Both decisions could involve behind-the-scenes dealmaking with both state and national political players.

Christie warmly eulogized Lautenberg, a political rival, but didn't offer hints about his plans. He likely, though, wants to wait until November 2014, when Lautenberg's term expires, to hold the election.

This would allow his Senate appointee to assume office and build name recognition, campaign money, and political power for more than a year before the election. And it would let Christie, who is up for reelection in November, avoid running for office at the same time as a popular, big-name Democrat like Booker.

By Monday afternoon, though, Democrats were making it clear that they want the election this November.

"The people should not be denied their right to choose their representatives," said Senate President Stephen Sweeney (D., Gloucester) in a statement.

Several outstanding questions could influence Christie's decision: Does the law require the election in 2013 or 2014? If an election is held in 2013, is it required to be in October or November? Will the candidates be chosen through primaries or party conventions?

The courts may step in to answer the questions. Operatives from both parties Monday were gearing up for a legal fight, with Democrats expected to push for a vote in 2013 and Republicans aiming for 2014.

Six sources in Washington and New Jersey - four Democrats and two Republicans - said the law is murky due to two seemingly contradictory sentences in the state statute. Nearly all predicted a battle in court.

The state's nonpartisan Office of Legislative Services (OLS) says the law indicates the election should be in 2014.

It issued a memo Monday, obtained by The Inquirer, stating that if a vacancy occurs within 70 days of the next primary election (which is Tuesday), then the seat must be filled at the "second succeeding election," which is 2014. The governor could choose to call an earlier special election to fill the vacancy, OLS said.

If an election were held this fall, it would be for the year remaining on Lautenberg's term. Another election, for a full six-year Senate term, would then be held in 2014.

New Jersey is familiar with ballot disputes. Lautenberg returned to the Senate after being added to the 2002 ballot as a late replacement, jumping into the race despite Republicans' contention that it was too late to change candidates. That fight went to the state Supreme Court, which sided with Democrats and allowed Lautenberg to run in place of Sen. Robert Torricelli.

Christie's decision will have immediate implications in Congress, where Democrats have held 55 Senate seats, counting independents who caucus with them. A GOP appointee would give Democrats one fewer vote to count on when trying to overcome a filibuster and move legislation.

Beyond both Keans, Guadagno, Kyrillos, and Booker, here are some other names that Christie may be considering: 

State Sen. Diane Allen. The Burlington County Republican is a moderate who ran for the Senate before. But that would mean she would drop out of her reelection run, leaving a swing seat vulnerable to capture by a Democrat. 

State Sen. Jennifer Beck. The selection of this pro-choice Monmouth County Republican could boost Christie's standing among Democratic women in this reelection year, but could hurt his national Republican profile. 

State Sen. Kevin J. O'Toole. The increasingly high-profile legislator from Essex County has a Korean mother and would be the most prominent nonwhite Republican on Christie's list. 

Assemblyman Jon Bramnick. The top Republican in the Assembly, Bramnick, from Union County, doesn't have the same name recognition as other Republican legislators. 

Assemblyman Jay Webber. If Christie wants to win a 2016 Republican primary, picking a hard-right conservative such as Morris County's Webber would help. 

U.S. Reps. Rodney Frelinghuysen, Frank LoBiondo, Leonard Lance, or Chris Smith. Any of these veteran representatives could slide down the hall, forgo a 2014 reelection campaign, and add "U.S. senator" to the resumé.  

Bill Palatucci. The chairman of Christie's reelection campaign could fill the seat as an extension of the governor. He would also fill his Rolodex before the 2016 presidential campaign, when Christie could be a candidate. 

Jon Hanson. A fund-raiser for Christie who is the former chairman of the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, Hanson would be a placeholder candidate trusted to temporarily fill the seat. 

State Sen. Bob Gordon. A veteran legislator from Bergen County with a Republican wife who supports Christie, this would be an option if Christie bucked expectations and decided to choose a Democrat. 

Woody Johnson. The owner of the Jets hangs out with Christie at NFL games and has been rumored to consider a run in the past. He could self-finance a campaign. 

John Crowley. This wealthy biotech executive with a compelling personal story (from his children's neuromuscular disorder) has been considered a possible candidate against Lautenberg and, later, Sen. Robert Menendez. 

Al Leiter. The former New York Mets and Yankees pitcher is a Toms River native who has flirted with running for office as a Republican. Christie, it should be noted, is a Mets fan.