The lowdown on the possible government shutdown

What do you get when the American electorate cooks up progressive change in the 2008 election, then throws in a large dose of angry conservative backlash in 2010, spiked with tea?

A recipe for gridlock, that's what.

This week, the irresistible force of House Republicans who swept to power last fall promising deep federal spending cuts and the immovable object of Democrats in the Senate and White House who think such draconian measures will kill the economic recovery are on an unavoidable collision course.

With the latest stop-gap measure that's kept the federal government running during a six-month stalemate that's set to expire at midnight Friday, it's looking less likely by the hour that the two sides can reach a deal. A clearly frustrated President Obama went before reporters yesterday and said Americans want their political leaders to "act like grown-ups, and when we are in negotiations like this, that everybody gives a little bit, compromises a little bit in order to do the people's business."

But that may not happen. If it doesn't, what will a shutdown of the federal government actually look like? And perhaps more important, who gains politically under such a scenario and who loses? The Daily News is here to break it down.

Q. Why now?

A. The federal government's 2010-11 fiscal year started on Oct. 1, but lawmakers were unable to agree on a new budget, waiting to see who would have the political upper hand after the November election. Instead, Congress has passed several interim measures to keep government running, including a two-week extension in March, but now both sides are pushing for a final resolution.

However, they remain far apart. Republicans in Congress - who gained 63 House seats after promising to make spending cuts and deficit reduction their No. 1 priority - want to reduce discretionary spending sharply from current levels, by at least $40 billion, with conservatives backed by the tea-party movement pushing for as much as $61 billion in reductions. Democratic negotiators, while also voicing concern about deficits, say they'll agree to $33 billion in cuts but say that anything deeper will eviscerate social programs for the middle class.

Q. So they don't seem far apart - what gives?

A. Earlier in the talks, GOP House Speaker John Boehner seemed willing to take $33 billion in cuts, but the conservatives in his ranks are pushing for more. A complicating factor is the rise of the right-wing Tea Party Movement, which not only wants to shrink the size of government but disdains compromise. Boehner told a news conference yesterday that Republicans are insisting on "the deepest cuts possible."

Q. Which party is the public going to blame?

A. That's the $33 billion or $61 billion question, isn't it? Many political experts like to recall the last major government shutdown, in 1995, which also took place with a Democratic president (Bill Clinton) and not long after a Republican congressional landslide. That showdown was widely seen as a PR disaster for the GOP that paved the way for Clinton's 1996 re-election and then-Speaker Newt Gingrich's downfall, but experts say 2011 may prove to be very different. For one thing, the GOP doesn't control both houses of Congress as it did 16 years ago.

A new set of polls out last night says that the public is divided on whom to blame, if a shutdown does occur. One survey from the Pew Research Center found that 39 percent of the electorate would blame Republicans for such a stalemate, while 36 percent would fault the Obama administration.

G. Terry Madonna, the political scientist and pollster from Franklin and Marshall College, said that the problem for all the politicians involved is that voters already hold government - especially Congress - in lower esteem than any time in modern history and that a government shutdown would only make that anger worse. That's even more true, he added, because of the fragile state of the economy, which wasn't a problem in the booming 1990s when government closed for three weeks.

"Voters will look at this as confirming their opinion of the last couple of years - that they don't like politics," Madonna said.

Q. Where does the tea party fit into this?

A. In 2010, moderate Republicans like Delaware Rep. Mike Castle - who was stunned in a Senate primary by right-wing upstart Christine O'Donnell - learned to ignore the tea party movement at their peril. And while centrist voters may want Washington to make a deal on the budget, the Pew survey found that 56 percent of conservative Republicans want lawmakers to "stand by their principles" rather than compromise.

Q. What about President Obama?

A. Some political experts say the crisis of a government shutdown could be an opportunity for Obama - just like the 1995 stalemate aided Clinton - because as president he has the best chance to look like the solution-seeking grown-up.

"He controls the microphone," said Larry Sabato, a politics professor at the University of Virginia. "It's most easy for his communications staff to present him as the adult."

Q. Well, what happens if the government shuts down? Will I get my VA check?

A. Because the shutdown would take effect at midnight Friday, lawmakers would still have the weekend to strike a deal before there is much of a real impact.

Yes, you would still get your VA check - it's direct-deposited these days - and a wide range of government services that are deemed as essential, like the military, air-traffic controllers, border guards and workers at veterans' hospitals, are also not affected. What would be affected are nonessential jobs like medical tracking by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention or the issuing of visas for foreigners to visit the United States.