A make or break year for A.C.?

ATLANTIC CITY - You know that all-in moment, when you push most of your pile of chips out onto the table and wait to see where the little white ball lands to know whether you're a winner or a big loser?

The year 2012 is looking a lot like that for Atlantic City.

Pummeled by a half-decade losing streak brought on by unrelenting competition from casinos in neighboring states and worsened by the sluggish economy, the resort has been anxious for 2012 and the $2.4 billion Revel casino-hotel that is expected to bring in new gamblers and new money.

In addition, Hard Rock International expects to break ground on a smaller casino at the opposite end of the Boardwalk, and this will be the first full year for Gov. Christie's Atlantic City rescue plan - including state supervision of safety, cleanliness and planning in the casino and shopping zones.

Yet pitfalls lurk: the ramping up of New York City's Aqueduct casino; the continued financial fragility of the casino formerly known as the Atlantic City Hilton, which has only committed to stay in business through Halloween; and the psychological blow when Pennsylvania passes Atlantic City to become the nation's second-largest gambling destination in terms of revenue, which is expected in 2012.

"It's a crucial year," said Tony Rodio, president of the Tropicana Casino and Resort. "I think it's the beginning of a turnaround. I really do."

The opening of Revel, set for May 15 but likely to happen sooner, will be the best thing to happen to Atlantic City since the Borgata Hotel Casino & Spa opened in 2003. The resort will likely be Atlantic City's last huge casino-hotel for quite some time. Chief executive Kevin DeSanctis said Atlantic City should not look at his project as its savior, although many view it that way.

"Revel is not a silver bullet," DeSanctis said. "Revel is another tool in the toolbox for Atlantic City to be successful. We're adding product to a market that desperately needs it.

"This market needs to reestablish itself as a regional destination," he said. "We will give people another reason to give Atlantic City another try.

"I hear people say, 'I don't go to Atlantic City; I go to the Borgata,' " DeSanctis added. "That's clearly a problem. When we open, it will help expand that to 'Borgata and Revel.' As other folks put a little more capital investment into their properties, that will have a positive effect."

Christie says he thinks many casinos will be forced to follow Revel's lead.

"It is an extraordinary facility, and it is going to draw tens of thousands of people to Atlantic City just to see it," he said. "When they do get there, I hope what they're going to find is a cleaner, a safer, Atlantic City.

"Now, it has been on the decline for years, so we are not going to come back entirely in 2012, so let's set appropriate expectations here. But I think you should start to see a turnaround."

Revel will add 5,000 full-time jobs to a market desperate for them and has put thousands of construction workers to work at a time when little else was being built. The casino-hotel plans to make an aggressive play for conventions and group meetings and will have a 5,000-seat concert hall capable of attracting the biggest names in entertainment.

A big question leading to Revel's opening has been whether the mega-resort will bring in new business, or merely siphon it from area casinos that can ill afford to lose customers. DeSanctis expects a little of both.

Michael Pollock, managing director of Spectrum Gaming Group, an Atlantic City-area casino consulting firm, said it would not be surprising to see one or two casinos close in 2012 due to cutthroat competition in a weak economy.

ACH, formerly known as the Atlantic City Hilton, appears to be on the shakiest ground. In November, state regulators approved a plan for it to stay open with a fresh infusion of capital from its owners, Los Angeles hedge fund Colony Capital L.L.C., and a cancellation of its debt.

But the casino has committed itself to staying open only through the end of October, and it is going after the smallest of small fish. It recently got permission to use table-game gambling chips worth as little as 25 cents - the first time Atlantic City has let a casino use a chip worth less than $1.

Resorts Casino Hotel also has yet to turn a profit in the first year of new ownership, though it expects to at least break even in 2012.

Atlantic City's casino revenue peaked in 2006 at $5.2 billion. It had fallen to $3.6 billion at the end of 2010, due mostly to casinos opening in Pennsylvania and New York, and the poor economy. Many expect revenue for 2011 to be around $3.2 billion.

Atlantic City desperately needs new money, Pollock says.

"The spigot had been turned off on new capital investment, and it's crucial that that spigot get turned back on again," he said. "Atlantic City was on its way toward reinventing itself with a new business model" when the bottom fell out of the economy.

The Seminole Indians, through their Hard Rock franchise, say they are ready to do that. They plan to break ground by July 15 on Atlantic City's first "boutique casino," a smaller, less-expensive gambling hall authorized under a pilot program to jump-start the casino market here. The first phase of the project, with 208 hotel rooms, will cost about $465 million. The project is eventually to include 850 rooms.

New Jersey's government adopted a number of changes for Atlantic City in 2011 that will have the chance to bear fruit in 2012. It beefed up the Casino Reinvestment Development Authority and put it in charge of revitalizing the resort, including making sure its streets are clean and safe.

But the reform likely to have the most immediate impact is the formation of the Atlantic City Alliance, a casino-financed nonprofit corporation that will spend $30 million a year for the next five years to promote Atlantic City. That's money the casinos were required to pony up to the state's racetracks in return for keeping slot machines out of racetracks, until Christie killed the arrangement, much to the delight of the casinos.

"What did Revel do in its first year, and what did we do with the $30 million we suddenly had at our disposal to market Atlantic City?" said Rodio, the Tropicana president. "That's what we'll be debating next New Year's Eve."