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Going into Election Day, a dead heat for N.J. governor

By Cynthia Burton

Inquirer Staff Writer

New Jersey residents will choose a governor today following months of hard campaigning and negative advertising that have left the major-party candidates - Democratic Gov. Corzine and Republican Christopher J. Christie - in a dead heat.

An estimated 2.5 million voters are expected to go to the polls at the end of a race that both parties portrayed as a referendum on the popularity of President Obama, who visited the state three times to appear with Corzine.

Residents also will vote in a range of other races, choosing Assembly members, county freeholders, and municipal leaders. But most eyes have been on the governor's race, and new polls yesterday showed it was still up for grabs.

"Some people say they're seeing momentum," said Monmouth University polling director Patrick Murray. "Momentum indicates something is going in a direction. This is going everywhere. It's just wacky."

Corzine, Christie, and independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett spent yesterday traversing the state, spending most of their time in vote-rich North Jersey. Christie popped by Burlington County's GOP headquarters in Mount Holly to pep up the troops; Corzine went to a union rally in Lawrenceville.

For the first time, voters will elect a lieutenant governor, whose primary responsibility is to serve when the governor cannot.

Another first in this race is the widespread use of mail ballots. So far, 184,000 people have applied to vote by mail and 123,550 had returned ballots as of yesterday. That compares with 91,726 absentee ballots cast in the 2005 governor's race. The mailed-in ballots are to be counted today, according to Susan Evans, spokeswoman for the Secretary of State's Office.

Daggett, who hit 20 percent of the vote in a mid-October Rutgers University poll, has been a significant factor in the race. But three polls released yesterday showed he was losing points, a trend that began last week.

The Quinnipiac University poll of 1,533 likely voters put Christie at 42 percent and Corzine at 40 percent, with Daggett getting 12 percent. The poll taken between Oct. 27 and Nov. 1 had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

The Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll released yesterday had Corzine at 43 percent and Christie at 41 percent, with Daggett at 8 percent. The poll of 722 likely voters conducted between Oct. 31 and Nov. 1 had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.

Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind poll of 1,119 likely voters between Oct. 22 and Nov. 1 showed Corzine at 43 percent, against 41 percent for Christie and 8 percent for Daggett. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

The highest recent performance of an independent candidate came in 1997, when Murray Sabrin captured 4.7 percent of the vote in a race with Republican Gov. Christie Whitman and James E. McGreevey, who lost that race and went on to win in 2001.

Whitman's win was the last statewide election victory by a Republican. Of the state's 5.2 million voters, 1.8 million are Democrats, 1 million are Republicans, and 2.4 million are unaffiliated. The rest belong to smaller parties.

Corzine, 62, a Wall Street millionaire, is on track to spend about $30 million in this race. Christie and Daggett accepted state campaign subsidies, which limit spending.

Christie, 47, a former U.S. attorney, has had help from the Republican Governors Association, which spent about $4 million in advertising. The Democratic Governor's Association spent about $3.2 million for Corzine on get-out-the-vote operations.

Daggett, 59, a former environmental commissioner, has argued that neither major-party candidate will solve the state's structural budget problems.

There has been national scrutiny of the New Jersey race because Virginia is the only other state to have a governor's race this year. Former state Attorney General Bob McDonnell, a Republican, is leading Democrat Creigh Deeds, a state senator, in independent polls there.

Locally, there is a spirited contest in Cape May and Cumberland Counties for the Assembly. Also, Democratic Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts of Camden is retiring, and county party leaders replaced him on the ballot with Donald Norcross, a party cochair and brother of power broker George Norcross III.

Voters in Camden will elect a mayor, with State Sen. Dana Redd, the Democratic machine pick, running against a field of lesser-known candidates. If Redd wins, the party plans to give her Senate seat to Donald Norcross.

Control of Gloucester Township's top post is up, with Republican Mayor Cindy Rau-Hatton fighting a strong challenge from former Democratic Assemblyman Dave Mayer.

Freeholders are up for election in Burlington, Camden and Gloucester Counties.

Statewide, voters also are set to decide on whether to let the state issue $400 million in bonds to acquire open space.

N.J. Voter Information

In case of a voting problem, help and information is available from county boards of elections:

Burlington County: 609-265-5111.

Camden County: 856-661-3555.

Gloucester County: 856-384-4500.

To verify registration, find a polling place or for general information, go to www.state.nj.us/state/elections/ or call 877-658-6837.

Voters who experience problems at the polls may request help from the Office of the Public Advocate at 609-826-5090.

Contact staff writer Cynthia Burton at 856-779-3858 or cburton@phillynews.com.

Comments

Posted 07:28 AM, 11/03/2009

tr88

Editors censor any mention of polls having Christie ahead but it's nice to know editrial and news are separate. RCP Average 10/27 - 11/1 -- 42.6 41.6 10.4 Christie +1.0 Monmouth/Gannett 10/31 - 11/1 722 LV 41 43 8 Corzine +2 SurveyUSA 10/30 - 11/1 582 LV 45 42 10 Christie +3 Quinnipiac 10/27 - 11/1 1533 LV 42 40 12 Christie +2 Rasmussen Reports 10/29 - 10/29 1000 LV 46 43 8 Christie +3 Stockton/Zogby 10/27 - 10/29 1093 LV 39 40 14 Corzine +1.

Posted 08:21 AM, 11/03/2009

Kaiser Sosa

Vote Christie or you deserve the higher taxes you'll be getting.

Posted 08:34 AM, 11/03/2009

Crosbysucks

why is this a dead heat? corzine sucks

Posted 09:01 AM, 11/03/2009

longshanks

Just get it over with. This is PA, we don't really care. I wish NJ would get it's own papers.

Posted 09:04 AM, 11/03/2009

jersey girl

Corzine is done, put a fork in him. Anyone who is a democrat in NJ and has to have Obama and Biden campaign for him is in serious trouble.

Posted 09:34 AM, 11/03/2009

Rod72

Too bad no one knows what this election is about because all either candidate did was attack the other about their failings.

Posted 09:42 AM, 11/03/2009

d-cop?STOP!

Dcop's boy says vote cahrees cahreestee BOOM

Posted 09:49 AM, 11/03/2009

havadrnk

I live in Philly but if NJ votes Corzine back in, they deserve to be the highest in Taxes for the next 100 years. Its unbelieveable that this is a tight race.

Posted 10:16 AM, 11/03/2009

Tucci

The meddling, wasteful, peculating, bottom-feeding, bipartisan rottenness of government in New Jersey is sort of like the child-molesting uncle in the family. We all know what the problem is, and we know damned well what really needs to be done about it, but nobody's got the guts to drag the unpleasant facts out into the open. We've simply got too much government in New Jersey, feeding too many parasites who vote for a living. Too many snouts in the trough, too many thieves each taking "just a little bit," too much regulation (if Trenton regulated deserts, we'd have a shortage of sand before next Tuesday), too many vampire bats masquerading as state bureaucrats. Throwing out yet another bloated toad like Corzine isn't enough. Something involving a fuel-air mixture and a reliable means of initiation is required.

Posted 10:28 AM, 11/03/2009

fafafooey

Daggett = Corzine.

Posted 10:29 AM, 11/03/2009

fafafooey

Do the polls account for 0bamaACORN voter fraud?

Posted 11:13 AM, 11/03/2009

feedup

YES THEY DO. OBAMA-ACORN FRAUD IS AN INTEGRAL PART IN THE POLL.

Posted 12:22 PM, 11/03/2009

MikeP

If you for an increase in spending, massive deficits and high unemployment, vote for Christie. If you like today's economy, vote for Christie. Don't blame Corzine for the economy that the Republicans created. To elect a Bush administration member after what they did to the economy, you deserve whatever you get. Christie's "plan": I'll lower taxes and eliminate waste. That's not a plan. They're objectives. How will he meet these objectives? No idea. He has no plan.

Posted 12:26 PM, 11/03/2009

cemego

chris christie eats babys!! Corzine thinks you're stupid! Golly, what a wonderful selection!

Posted 12:34 PM, 11/03/2009

bmmg39

Mike, the Bush administration didn't do anything to the economy. George W. Bush gave us several years of economic security in spite of the most devastating attack on our nation's soil in about 60 years and what was perhaps the biggest natural disaster in U.S. history. We had economic security until right around the time the Democrats assumed control of both houses and the Fannie/Freddie mess was allowed to spiral out of control over the protests and warnings of Bush (and others).