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MEL EVANS / Associated Press

Christopher J. Christie greeting a prospective voter during a campaign stop in Pitman. "I've never felt more confident than I've felt in the last couple of days," the Republican gubernatorial candidate said last week.

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READER FEEDBACK

Why race to lead N.J. is so tight

By Cynthia Burton

Inquirer Staff Writer

New Jersey's gubernatorial race, winding down to Tuesday's election after a consistently brutal campaign, is a dead heat between Democratic Gov. Corzine and Republican Christopher J. Christie, in a state where no Republican has won a statewide race in a dozen years.

"This should have been a race where no Republican in his right mind would have taken [Corzine] on," said Joseph Marbach, a political scientist at Seton Hall University.

Corzine has the advantages of incumbency and vast personal wealth; he might pump in $30 million before the campaign is over. He also enjoys an almost 2-1 Democratic registration edge over Republicans.

But Christie has given Corzine a vigorous challenge, fighting him in urban, Democratic strongholds and at kitchen tables in middle-class suburbia.

The gubernatorial race has drawn national attention because it is one of only two this year, and some see it as a referendum on President Obama and his Democratic Party. And looming over it all has been a sour economy.

Corzine has had trouble convincing voters that things could have been a lot worse if he hadn't trimmed spending and bucked up social services. And Christie decided to stick to a plan of not giving sound-bite answers to complex problems, promising instead to pick apart the government and make informed choices. That opened him to bruising attacks from Corzine and independent Chris Daggett.

Throughout the race, voters have been cranky, scared, and frustrated by mounting home foreclosures and crippling unemployment rates. They have been looking for someone to blame and trying to figure out who, if anyone, could turn things around.

"It's close because people are angry. They're frustrated. They are upset, and in the American democratic system, we allow those expressions of public frustration to be vented through elections," Rider University political scientist Ben Dworkin said. "So Jon Corzine is in a tight race because the economy is lousy. . . . If the economy was going at a 5 percent growth clip, I don't think we'd be seeing this."

Corzine, a 62-year-old liberal Democrat, is a former farm boy and Marine who became a Wall Street millionaire. Christie, a 47-year-old former U.S. attorney born in Newark, N.J., is a conservative Republican and one-term Morris County freeholder. Daggett, 59, a former environmental commissioner with a doctorate in education, emerged as a genuine factor two weeks ago only to slide back into single digits in the latest independent polls.

Each is on a 21-county bus tour, stopping at diners and rallies, walking Main Streets, and charging up volunteers.

Those volunteers will be making calls to voters, knocking on doors, and dropping off literature through the weekend. They are being aided by live computer updates telling them which voters they've already visited or called.

That information will be used Tuesday as the campaigns pinpoint their votes and get them to the polls - in some cases, driving them. For Daggett, the challenge is showing voters just where he is on voting machines. In 19 of the state's 21 counties, he is bundled with less-significant candidates.

Corzine has spent millions pummeling Christie on his best asset - a career as U.S. attorney that included a perfect record of securing convictions or guilty pleas form 130 corrupt politicians. The ads questioned Christie's ethics.

Christie, meanwhile, used advertising to argue that Corzine's policies put the state in bad shape to withstand a tanking economy.

The campaigns and the independent groups supporting them are jamming the airwaves with ads, some even getting slots during the World Series.

Obama is coming to New Jersey for a third time to help Corzine, attending rallies in Camden and Newark today. Christie is touring the state with former Republican Govs. Christie Whitman and Thomas H. Kean and former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani.

The appearances by Obama and others by Vice President Biden are evidence of the significance of the election. Virginia is the only other state electing a governor this year.

Some analysts see this year's races as predictors of the 2010 congressional and gubernatorial contests. But such off-year races never have been reliable indicators, according to a historical study by University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato.

Still, the national party groups plan to use New Jersey's results as a selling point to raise money for coming federal and state races. So far in New Jersey, they have spent millions on advertising and field operatives to make sure voters get to the polls.

Together, the Republican and Democratic governors associations have spent almost $8 million. Christie, who is accepting state campaign subsidies, is limited to spending $11 million, while Corzine has spent $23 million and counting.

Though Christie had led in the polls for almost a year, Corzine tripped up his momentum with relentless television ads criticizing the Republican's support of no-frills health-insurance policies. Corzine said the plan would deny women mammograms; Christie said he never intended to deny women cancer screenings. By October, according to polls, undecided independent women were making up their minds - for Corzine.

Christie wouldn't let Corzine take it easy in the cities, even opening up a campaign headquarters in Newark and appearing frequently in Camden. He promised school vouchers and more charter schools for students in failing urban districts, and an aggressive attack on street crime. He said he would give tax breaks to middle-class families who moved into cities.

Each time the president came to stir up Democrats, Christie welcomed him. He has run ads featuring African Americans and Latinos, saying they voted for Obama in 2008 but were going to vote for Christie this year.

Christie doesn't expect to win the cities, but if he can trim the bump Corzine needs there, particularly in urban Hudson County, the governor could be in trouble, said Rider's Dworkin.

Both candidates sought to appeal to women with their choices for lieutenant governor, in the state's first-ever election for a governor-in-waiting.

On campaign stops last week, the major candidates were making their final pitches.

As preschoolers romped through a Pennsauken playground, Corzine said he wanted voters to ask themselves one thing: "Who can get us through and out of this recession the soonest and the strongest?"

A few miles away, at an assisted-living center in Washington Township, Christie said, "I've never felt more confident than I've felt in the last couple of days."

Contact staff writer Cynthia Burton at 856-779-3858 or cburton@phillynews.com.

Comments

Posted 04:50 AM, 11/01/2009

philly3t0

Its only close because Daggett's in the race, Christie would thump the tax happy liberal if Daggett dropped out.

Posted 04:50 AM, 11/01/2009

janann

It should be a tight race - Since I received a phone call from the hypocritical Rick Santorum,,, the so called pro-lifer that supported Specter in the last Primary ---- during the World Series game,,, asking me to support Christie because of his stance on Marriage.,,,, I wonder if the follow up will be the Ed Rollins/Christie Whitman plea to have Pastors of Minority Churches simply not vote again like they did in the "Other Christie" campaign. TIME WILL TELL --

Posted 06:22 AM, 11/01/2009

save1nj

it's tight because voters aren't smart and think property taxes are corzine's fault. people forget that 566 towns and 614 school districts (aka Home Rule) is the real reason. property taxes were high under Kean and Whitman too. tax happy? my income tax is a third what my property tax is, but my parks director, three fire chiefs and every cop in town earns a six figure salary. THAT's why taxes are high.

Posted 06:31 AM, 11/01/2009

dahlia506

I really don't see that this race has much to do with Obama. New Jersey has been in crisis for over a decade. Corzine has been the only governor to face the facts of the mounting debt and actually try to do something about it. That's unpopular because it hurts. As far as foreclosures and unemployment are concerned, they are a biproduct of the national recession, not Corzine's policies. In my opinion, Christie is more of a law and order guy, not a financial whiz. We need to keep Corzine for another four years to try to get a handle on this budget mess.

Posted 06:32 AM, 11/01/2009

socialism=unamerican

Corzine never mentions his accomplishments in four years as governor because there are none. He is a failed governor with failed policies. His personal attacks on Christie are disgusting to say the least. The taxpayers need to take New Jersey back. Vote for Christie. Another four years of Corzine will turn New Jersey into a third world country.

Posted 06:55 AM, 11/01/2009

janann

I have a feeling the unamerican Socialist is listening to too much Talk Radio. - All cut from the same cloth.

Posted 07:11 AM, 11/01/2009

NEOCON

Being glad to be a former New Jersey resident, I can tell you what one outsider feels of the state. If you all continue to vote in the same people, ie liberal democrats, who love to tax and spend their way to oblivion - Don't be suprised that the state is the National joke that it is. Much love for South Jersey.

Posted 07:20 AM, 11/01/2009

FastFrank

Shemp Howard would govern better then Jon Corizine.

Posted 07:44 AM, 11/01/2009

jlcharles

I don't know how much more I can take before I finally snap and just leave this place. How can people be fooled into reelecting Corzine? Shouldn't the fact that all of his cronies have been arrested and charged with corruption be enough? Nope, people like janann will continue to vote in the same people that keep on stealing from us. The democrats have controlled the legislature since 2001. From the numbers I'm finding, the budget has increased by 50%. Let's just keep on the same path to ruin.

Posted 07:47 AM, 11/01/2009

dencal26

New Jersey suffers from widespread corruption. Chris Christie has proven he can clean up the state. Corzine has been chasing the middle class out of New Jersey and making it even worse by hitting you with an " Exit Tax" when you move. Afte decades of corruption which seems to be in newspapers weekly I cannot understand how any New Jersey resident could vote Democrat at this time.

Posted 07:49 AM, 11/01/2009

rgreen72

I have a feeling janann listens to and follows everything OBAMA does and says. He feels that Corzine is good for NJ and that is just plain crazy. I dont live in NJ anymore so I hope you are all dumb enought to elect corzine again. Then watch what happens.

Posted 08:44 AM, 11/01/2009

Vanzant

JON THE CON has duped every union member in this state, I have worked for a CORSLIME regime for 4 years now and pray everyday a Federal Investigation is started, He has been systematcly staealing your money thru NJSDA schools program and NAZI agency NJDCA which forces contrators to submit to bogus inspections.. Stop JON THE CON!

Posted 08:49 AM, 11/01/2009

joepaper

This is just the start of the Liberals nationwide getting booted. Even if Christie looses ,,,in that state he should be way ahead. Voters got fooled with Obama and now are waking up

Posted 08:58 AM, 11/01/2009

hawk

Democrats have ruined New Jersey and are now in the process of ruining the country.Tax and spend, tax and spend. We are all broke because of them. Corzine is nothing but a socialist. Everyone except for inner city folks looking for a handout want him gone

Posted 10:28 AM, 11/01/2009

kelprod1

This should be a massive wake up call for the democratic party. NJ is a solidly democratic state, Corzine has endless cash and the national democratic party has plowed millions into this race. Even if Corzine wins, he will have done so with less people voting for him then against him. If Daggett drops out, Corzine will get crushed. This is a massive statement against the democratic party and congressional races in 2010 will prove to be even worse for them. Voters are completely tired of left wing looney out of control spending, governmental intervention and massive governmental expansion & ineffectiveness. Let's hope Corzine goes down, but even if he does not, he certainly cannot utter he has the confidence of the voters in NJ....unless he wants to behave like the Obama crowd whereby you just say whatever you feel like regardless of facts and hope your uninformed supporters blindly buy the BS you are shoveling...