Argentine election may change little

BUENOS AIRES, Argentina - In Argentine politics, those who stay in power long enough - or wield it mightily enough - are immortalized with an

-ismo

.

Kirchnerismo is the legacy of the 12 years that Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner and her late husband Nestor have run this country, a contemporary spin on the Peronismo of Juan and Evita Peron. And like the 1950s edition, it is less of an ideology than a ruling style, defined by the concentration of power, populist social welfare programs, and a steady red-meat diet of Argentine nationalism.

Barred by the national constitution from running for a third presidential term, Kirchner will not be on the ballot this October when Argentines elect her successor. But she will very much be on the minds of voters as they decide whether to keep Kirchnerismo going.

Just a few months ago, analysts were writing its political obituary, dragged down by a weak economy, unchecked inflation, and the shadowy death of prosecutor Alberto Nisman just before he was due to testify against the president in the country's most notorious terrorism case. Many Argentines were convinced Nisman was murdered, and they aimed their wrath at Kirchner.

But since then she has bounced back in polls, leaving some analysts convinced that her left-populist brand of politics - and wide-reaching influence - is likely to endure after she leaves office in December.

"I don't see many signs that Kirchnerismo has run its course," said Ignacio Rodriguez, a political consultant and the director of the polling firm Ibarometro. "The ideological climate hasn't changed. You can't win an election here calling for re-privatization and liberal economic reforms."

Leading the polls ahead of the August 9 primaries is candidate of Kirchner's party, Daniel Scioli. He served as vice president under Nestor Kirchner between 2003 and 2007, but is not part of the Kirchner inner circle. Analysts say he has far too big a political reputation to serve as a mere puppet figure for her to remain in power.

"We have a saying in Argentina," said Jorge Lanata, a popular talk-show host and muckraking reporter who frequently clashes with Kirchner. " 'Two don't fit in one chair.' "

As the governor of the province of Buenos Aires, the country's most populous, Scioli cultivated his image as an upbeat and efficient task-manager, eschewing the confrontational style of the Kirchners and their leftist politics for a sunnier, more centrist message. The 58-year-old former businessman also offers a compelling life story, having lost his right arm in a 1989 boat-racing accident.

But though he differs in style, Scioli has positioned himself as the candidate of Kirchnerismo continuity. His vice-presidential running mate, Carlos Zannini, is the Kirchners' longtime consiglieri, a powerful insider who has worked behind the scenes and retains deep loyalties to the couple. Scioli's campaign team, as well, is stocked with Kirchernistas, so a victory would leave him with an obvious debt to his predecessor.

If Scioli wins the presidency with Kirchner aide Zannini on the ticket, according to one joke going around Buenos Aires, Scioli had better make sure to open his own drinks.

Scioli's likely opponent, Buenos Aires mayor Mauricio Macri, 56, has been the most prominent critic of the Kirchners. The wealthy son of an Italian industrialist, Macri is trying to transcend a reputation for close ties to Argentina's business and financial elite. His challenge, observers say, will be to unite the disparate members of the anti-Kirchner opposition into a broad base of support.

"Macri represents change," said Fabian Perechodnik, director of polling firm Poliarquia. "Scioli represents continuity, with a few changes and adjustments."

The appeal of Kirchnerismo continuity stems in part from fears that Macri would run the country in the style of former president Carlos Menem, whose application of liberal economic theories and privatization push are blamed for the country's 2001 economic collapse.

Nearly half the country was left in poverty in the period of financial and political instability that followed, paving the way for the rise of Nestor Kirchner and the brand of Peronismo that he - and later his wife - used to rebuild the Argentine state.

The Kirchners re-nationalized the Argentine pension system, the state oil company, and the state airline. They broadened access to health care and education, and even ordered television broadcasters to show soccer games for free, with scrolls of pro-government advertising at the bottom of the screen.

Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner won a landslide re-election in 2011, but Nestor died of a heart attack the following year and her second term has been a rocky one. Relations with the United States turned sour as she developed close ties with the late Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez and other leftist figures in the region. More recently, she has clashed with the international creditors she calls "vultures" who are trying to collect on unpaid debt from the 2001 debacle, winning praise at home.

But the power couple repeatedly stumbled through scandals. The Kirchners' wealth grew in office through ties to Argentine businessmen who benefited from government contracts, and after more than a decade Kirchner herself is arguably less popular than Kirchnerismo.

The country remains mired in a "structural poverty trap," according to a former high-ranking Argentine economic official who spoke under condition of anonymity.

"The government has plenty of resources because of increased tax collection, but it has overspent them, irrationally," he said. "What's left is poor infrastructure that leaves medium-sized companies unable to compete."

Argentina's wheat harvest is at its lowest point in decades, and growers cite crushing export taxes and currency controls. Beef exports - a traditional source of Argentine fortune and national pride - have plummeted too, falling behind smaller neighbors Uruguay and Paraguay.

Yet analysts also concede that the popular social welfare policies of Kirchnerismo will be difficult for her successor to dial back.

Though Scioli is viewed as the guardian of Kirchnerismo policies, he enjoys enough personal distance from her to avoid the fallout of her worst scandals, including the death of Nisman.

Surveys found a majority of Argentines believed that the prosecutor was murdered, but street protests against Kirchner have faded, and the government appears to have succeeding in depicting Nisman as an unstable, egomaniac playboy who cracked under pressure and took his own life.

He was found dead in his apartment from a gunshot wound a day before he was scheduled to give testimony in Argentina's Congress accusing Kirchner of colluding with Iran to cover up the worst terrorist attack in the country's history, the 1994 bombing of an Argentine-Israeli cultural center in Buenos Aires that killed 85.