Birds face climate upheaval
The National Audubon Society looks at the troubling consequences of a warmer world.
WASHINGTON - As the world gets warmer, the Baltimore oriole will no longer be found in Maryland. The Mississippi kite will move north, east, and pretty much out of its namesake state. And the California gull will mostly be a summer stranger to the Golden State.
Those are among the conclusions in a new National Audubon Society report that looks at the potential effects of global warming on birds by the year 2080.
"This will spell trouble for most birds," said Gary Langham, the society's chief scientist and vice president.
Over the next six decades or so, the critical ranges of more than half the 588 North American bird species will either shrink significantly or move into uncharted territory for the animal, according to Langham's analysis.
While other studies have made similar pronouncements, this report gives the most comprehensive projections of what is likely to happen to America's birds.
The report says that in a few decades, 126 bird species will end up with a much smaller area to live in, which the society says will make them endangered. An additional 188 species will lose more than half their natural range but relocate to new areas. Those moves will be threatening to the birds' survival, too, because they will be confronted with different food and soil, bird experts said.
Other birds, including backyard regulars like the American robin and the blue jay, will fly in even more places, the report says. And some of the biggest potential winners aren't exactly birds that people like - species such as the turkey vulture, the American crow, and the mourning dove, which will expand their ranges tremendously.
"If you want to know what the climate change future sounds like, it sounds a lot like a mourning dove," Langham said. Some people find annoying the singing of the mourning dove, which will more than double its range.
Langham used bird survey data in summer and winter from 2000 to 2009 and correlated the information to climate conditions to come up with simulations of how bird ranges will change. He then tested the simulations against data from 1980 to 1999, and they worked. Then he used United Nations carbon pollution scenarios from 2007 to project bird ranges in 2020, 2040, and 2080.
The report is not yet peer-reviewed, which is crucial in science.