In Delaware and elsewhere, eyes turn to moderate Republicans for clue to party's future

WILMINGTON - Have a heart for Dave Patterson.

On Tuesday, the 23-year-old Republican can help send to the U.S. Senate either the GOP's tea party-backed Christine O'Donnell, whom he knows little about except her assertions that she is not a witch, or Democrat Chris Coons, whom he can't stomach because of his role in raising New Castle County taxes.

Patterson's decision: "I'm probably not going to vote," the emergency responder, standing outside his firehouse, said last week.

Nine-term U.S. Rep. Michael N. Castle was not the only casualty of O'Donnell's upset win in Delaware's GOP primary last month.

In nearly two dozen interviews last week, Patterson and other self-described moderate Republicans from New Castle County - including many would-be supporters of the more centrist Castle - voiced considerable unease about the Election Day choice they face to fill the Senate seat once held by Vice President Biden.

On Tuesday, the plight of the moderate Republican will play out not just in Delaware, but also in half a dozen other Senate contests that include candidates backed by the tea party. How these GOP members vote - or don't vote, as in Patterson's case - is being closely watched by local and national GOP leaders as an indicator of the struggle under way for the future of the increasingly right-wing Republican Party.

In Delaware, O'Donnell is widely expected to lose her race. She trailed in two polls last week by 10 and 21 percentage points. But it is the margin of her potential loss that may be most revealing.

"Much depends on what the vote totals are - whether O'Donnell and the insurgents win, lose narrowly, or by a lot," said political science professor Joseph A. Pika of the University of Delaware. "Long term, the moderate Republicans will probably watch to see how the battle for control of the state party plays out - whether the O'Donnell supporters will become the new leadership of the party."

The Delaware race may also be notable, Pika said, for whether moderate Republicans wind up influencing the outcome more than independent voters, who traditionally fulfill that role. The number of registered Republicans in the state - 183,000 - is not significantly greater than the 147,000 independent and other voters.

Also, unlike in Philadelphia, Delaware voters have a long history of crossing party lines. In 2008, Democrat Jack Markell won the governor's race with 68 percent of the vote, drawing more support than either President Obama or Biden - and far more than the 50 percent of ballots cast by Democratic voters.

Similarly, in 2006, U.S. Sen. Thomas Carper, a Democrat, garnered 170,000 votes to win, far more than the 117,000 ballots cast by Democrats who voted in that race.

"I've voted for many Democrats in the past, including Obama," said Republican Jack Vicary, a bartender at Famous Joe's Tavern, tucked inside a suburban shopping center. Late last week, he was still unsure what he would do this time.

"I don't think the tea party is the answer," he said. "But I don't like what's going on in Washington. I might vote for O'Donnell just to shake things up."

He and others said their choice this Election Day would have been filled with far less anguish had Castle still been in the race.

"I knew his track record. He was a straight shooter," said Republican Thomas Hatzis, owner of the Hollywood Grill diner on Concord Pike. Now, Hatzis is confused. "I don't think the Republican candidate has the experience Coons has."

Both candidates in the campaign's final days aimed their efforts at the opposing party's voters.

Coons, 47, who has been New Castle County executive for six years and previously worked as counsel to the company that makes Gore-Tex, released a list of more than 70 state Republican supporters. Among them were a former state chief justice and a former U.S. representative.

O'Donnell, 41, a conservative commentator who is vying a third time for a Senate seat, highlighted her Democratic support at a news conference featuring six voters, including Michael Degnars.

"We can no longer be dillydallying with the arrogance of Washington," said Degnars, 61, who runs a third-generation family bakery. He said Castle was an example of that arrogance and criticized Coons for implementing property- and water-tax hikes as county executive.

O'Donnell told reporters that "dozens more" Democrats wanted to attend the news conference. But they declined, she said, because of "concern of political intimidation," a reference to a 2005 controversy concerning a police chief Coons forced to resign because of questions about the management of a bank account used to pay off-duty officers.

O'Donnell said a victory for her on Tuesday would "go beyond this Senate race. It is about restoring political power back to the people."

Last week, Coons spoke about his recent debate with O'Donnell to a Democratic supporter at the Sellers Senior Center: "A lot of folks didn't realize her view of the Constitution. Not that it's uninformed, it's different."

The candidates last week also highlighted their big-name backers. Coons campaigned in New Castle County with Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, both Democrats. O'Donnell on Friday was joined by Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, the chamber's third-ranking Republican, and was expected to appear Sunday with Sarah Palin at a Tea Party Express stop in Wilmington.

Also, while Castle has not endorsed O'Donnell, she did receive support from another former Delaware Republican governor: Pete du Pont.

"I think a lot of people are going to be surprised by what happens Tuesday," said Barry Dorsch, a pro-O'Donnell cyclist getting his bike repaired at Dunbar's Cyclery shop.

Although he supported Castle in past years, Dorsch voted against him in the primary because he views Castle as a RINO - Republican in Name Only. "I would not be happy if O'Donnell loses," he said. "But not having Castle won't be a big loss."