Maintaining and modernizing highways, bridges, and transit in Southeastern Pennsylvania and South Jersey will require at least $110 billion over the next 26 years, according to the plan approved by the bi-state Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC). That is $45 billion more than the region can expect to receive from projected federal, state, and local spending.
By 2035, the funding gap in Southeastern Pennsylvania will reach an estimated $36.4 billion, and $8.9 billion in New Jersey's Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Mercer Counties, the report said.
The plan's authors suggested that local governments must boost spending to fill the gap, since "federal and state funding levels are not expected to increase." But in many cases, local governments are limited in what they are legally permitted to do to raise money.
If the funding needs are not met, deteriorating bridges and highways may need to be shut down or face weight restrictions, said Mike Boyer, DVRPC manager of long-range planning and an author of the plan.
He noted that without additional funding, about $9 billion is expected to be available for repairing bridges in Southeastern Pennsylvania - and $8 billion of it will be needed to fix the I-95 viaduct between Center City and the Girard Point Bridge.
"It became crystal-clear how daunting this issue is, and we wanted to open this up for discussion with the local governments and the legislatures," Boyer said yesterday. "Moving forward, we have some tough decisions to make."
The report, Connections: The Regional Plan for a Sustainable Future, is a blueprint for the growth of the region. The DVRPC, which decides how federal transportation money is spent in the Philadelphia region, is required to update every four years its long-range vision for the area's future.
The latest report envisions additions to the rail network, but little in the way of new roads.
"The emphasis now and in the future is not on building new roads but making the roads and other facilities we have perform better," the report said. "Therefore, the top priority for transportation investments is the maintenance and modernization of the existing transportation system."
Planners envision a modestly expanded SEPTA Regional Rail system, with rail lines to Quakertown, Wawa, Atglen and the King of Prussia mall, and a light-rail line along Delaware Avenue in Philadelphia.
In New Jersey, rail service is expected to be expanded from Camden to Gloucester County, a "bus rapid transit" system is to be built along U.S. 1 in central New Jersey, and a new rail station is planned to link the River Line and the Atlantic City Line in Pennsauken.
The report also calls for directing future growth toward existing developed areas to limit sprawl and the demand for services. And it said greenhouse gas emissions should be reduced by 50 percent by 2035, compared with 2005 levels.
By 2035, the nine-county region will be home to 6.1 million people, up 11 percent from the 5.5 million who lived here in 2005, the report predicted. Most of the growth is expected to occur in Gloucester (35 percent), Chester (31 percent), Bucks (21 percent) and Burlington (21 percent) Counties, while Philadelphia is forecast to have about the same population then as now - 1.5 million.
The plan warns of a coming "senior boom" that can be expected to change how people live and the services they require.
Many of the region's counties can expect to experience a doubling or more of their elderly population by 2025, the report said. By then, almost one in five of the region's residents will be over 65.
In Pennsylvania, Bucks and Chester Counties will continue to see the most rapid growth in elderly residents, while in New Jersey, Burlington County will see the most dramatic senior growth.
"Many aging suburban baby boomers will want to stay in the suburban communities in which they have raised their families after they retire," the report predicted. It said those seniors likely will face a lack of affordable housing and accessible transportation, "especially given the lack of public transit in many suburban locations."
Job growth will follow population trends, the report said, with New Jersey counties forecast to have a slightly higher gain in employment than Pennsylvania counties.
Between 2005 and 2035, the region is forecast to add an additional 370,000 jobs, an increase of 13 percent over 2005 levels.
Philadelphia is expected to remain the region's largest job center, with more than 736,000 jobs forecast in 2035. But the share of the region's employment located in the city is expected to decline from 26 percent in 2005 to 23 percent by 2035, due to faster job growth in the suburbs.
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