Joaquin shifts; 'major' flooding still likely
Powerful, "extremely dangerous" Hurricane Joaquin slammed into one destination Thursday but left its next targets a mystery, stoking a storm of anxiety along the rain-soaked Eastern Seaboard.
Powerful, "extremely dangerous" Hurricane Joaquin slammed into one destination Thursday but left its next targets a mystery, stoking a storm of anxiety along the rain-soaked Eastern Seaboard.
As Joaquin buffeted the Bahamas with winds of 130 m.p.h., Gov. Christie in New Jersey and his counterparts in Virginia and North Carolina declared states of emergency. Gov. Wolf stopped short of such a step but warned Pennsylvania residents to get ready and promised the state budget crisis would have no impact on any storm-aid efforts.
After Joaquin twisted and grew to a Category 4 hurricane during the previous 24 hours, its path remained subject to debate.
But even before the hurricane could reach Mid-Atlantic states, a system that has already battered the coast was expected to lead to major flooding as soon as midday Friday, forecasters said.
In its 11 p.m. Thursday update, the National Hurricane Center projected the "extremely dangerous" hurricane would generate a "life threatening" storm surge in the Bahamas, with rainfall totals as high as 25 inches, but miss the U.S. mainland, passing well east of New Jersey sometime Monday night.
That prediction was a radical difference from the 2 a.m. forecast, which projected the center of the hurricane approaching the Chesapeake Bay on Monday night.
Even if Joaquin doesn't make landfall, forecasters warned that it would still have an impact around here.
It's only the second major hurricane to form in the Atlantic Basin in four years, and the first to affect the Bahamas during October since 1866, said Philip Klotzbach, hurricane expert at Colorado State University.
Farther north, well in advance of Joaquin, a storm in the Southeast and high pressure to the north have set up a pattern conducive to heavy rains and steady onshore winds from the northeast - perhaps gusting to 50 m.p.h. - that could persist into Tuesday, the National Weather Service said. It issued flash-flood watches for Washington, northern Virginia, southern Maryland, and the Eastern Shore from Friday morning through late Saturday.
In New England, hundreds of cars were damaged by high water around the region, with some totaled and others needing expensive repairs, officials said.
More than 6 inches of rain fell Wednesday in Maine, while New Hampshire got more than 5 inches. Vermont also got heavy rain, but not as much.
The Weather Service office in Mount Holly said late Thursday that "a high impact weather pattern still threatens our region." The threats included "localized inland flooding" and possibly "major flooding" at high tide Friday and Saturday at the Jersey Shore.
Computer models continued to squabble over the path of Joaquin, but the official track forecast took a drastic eastward turn early Thursday, closer to a path foreseen days ago by the European forecast model.
"We are becoming optimistic that the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic states will avoid the direct effects from Joaquin," the Hurricane Center said.
The Weather Service, however, said that tropical air and heavy rains will affect the region "even if Joaquin becomes a non-factor for us."
It certainly was a factor in the Bahamas.
Islands in the storm's path have reported power outages, storm surges, and strong winds, said Capt. Stephen Russell, the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency director.
Given that the storm remained days away, that the projected track has taken radical turns, and that conditions Friday and Saturday won't be particularly pleasant, the local Weather Service office added a cautionary note in its late-day briefing:
"Please remember that the threat from Hurricane Joaquin has been lessened, but not removed completely."
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Inquirer staff writers Caitlin McCabe and Amy S. Rosenberg contributed to this article, which also contains material from the Associated Press.