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Poll gives MacArthur 5-point edge over Belgard in N.J.

Republican Tom MacArthur is up 5 percentage points over Democrat Aimee Belgard in the competitive South Jersey race to replace retiring Jon Runyan in the House, according to a Stockton Polling Institute survey released Wednesday.

Republican Tom MacArthur is up 5 percentage points over Democrat Aimee Belgard in the competitive South Jersey race to replace retiring Jon Runyan in the House, according to a Stockton Polling Institute survey released Wednesday.

MacArthur is favored by 46 percent of likely voters, compared to 41 percent who prefer Belgard, the Stockton Poll reported. Eight percent were undecided.

The institute, affiliated with the William J. Hughes Center, contacted 617 likely voters via landlines and cellphones from Oct. 25 to 28. The margin of error is 3.9 percentage points.

Former Randolph Township Mayor MacArthur and Burlington County Freeholder Belgard are battling for an open seat in the Third District, which covers much of Burlington and Ocean Counties. Political observers have called the battle one of the most competitive and expensive in the country, with national fund-raising organizations contributing to TV ads and campaign literature. More than $9 million has been spent so far, according to filing reports.

The latest poll shows the gap between the candidates narrowing when compared with a Monmouth University poll released two weeks ago. That poll reported 51 percent of likely voters supporting MacArthur, while 41 percent leaned toward Belgard. A Stockton poll released Sept. 15 had found the two candidates were tied, with each receiving support from 42 percent of likely voters.

"This election is trending toward the Republican," said Daniel J. Douglas, director of the William J. Hughes Center. "A fair number of voters have not yet committed as the candidates continue to battle."

MacArthur has a five-point lead among unaffiliated voters, the poll found.

Though more than one-third of likely voters didn't know who the candidates were in the Sept. 15 poll, only 15 percent to 16 percent now say they do not know who MacArthur and Belgard are.