The New Jersey disconnect

By Bill Holland

Following his Election Day victory, Gov. Christie has spent his time visiting cable talk shows and the Sunday news programs to tout his victory as an endorsement for Republican values in a Democratic state. He's already using the increased air time to make his case in the Republican presidential primary preseason that he is an effective executive who can "get big things done."

The challenge for the governor is that, while he's successfully translated his personal popularity into a win for himself at the polls, it's not at all clear the voters believe he has a mandate for his agenda.

Despite his promise to "turn this blue state red," New Jersey's state Legislature remains doggedly Democratic. That's in no small part because, whatever personal popularity Christie enjoys, New Jersey voters simply don't agree with him or his party on the big issues of the day.

The best example of this disconnect between Christie's personal appeal and his politics may be the triumph of the $1 minimum-wage hike on the ballot. Christie vetoed a similar proposal in February and blasted the ballot initiative on the campaign stump. However, his arguments failed to sway New Jerseyans. The ballot measure was approved by more than 60 percent of the voters.

That's just the tip of the disconnect iceberg. We commissioned the Mellman Group to survey voters on key issues to see where they agreed with or differed from Christie.

It turns out that many voters who supported Christie didn't vote on the issues at all. His supporters, particularly the independents and Democrats who represented his margin of victory, often cited personal qualities when explaining their support. When asked an open-ended question as to why Christie voters cast their vote for him, roughly two-thirds of these voters spoke in terms of personal qualities or generalities - and only 21 percent cited agreement on the issues as the reason for their vote. When it came to voter decisions, personality trumped policy.

At the same time, the Legislature remained Democratic because voters agreed with Democrats on policy. When asked why they preferred Democratic control, nearly two-thirds of voters said it was because they support Democratic positions on the issues, compared with 28 percent who said it was because they want a check on Christie.

Voters - whether they supported the governor or not - consistently chose policy positions opposed to those held by Christie. Many of these issues will have an impact on his second-term agenda. A full 57 percent disagree with the governor's repeated vetoes of the millionaires' tax, which could pay for school funding or the restoration of property-tax rebates. And while Christie is trying to ram through changes to school funding that would take support away from low-income kids, only 14 percent of voters think that less should be spent on education.

Even as the governor and his education commissioner are implementing a sweeping high-stakes testing regime, 48 percent of voters think there is too much emphasis on standardized testing in schools and only 8 percent think there's too little.

The list goes on. From women's health and abortion rights to gun control, voters - even the Democratic and independent voters who supported Christie for a second term - disagree strongly with the governor.

Christie's win was significant, but it was won on style rather than substance. This should be encouraging news for Democratic legislators, who were sent to Trenton by the voters to offer an alternative to the governor's trickle-down policies and his strain of social conservatism that's too red for a very blue state.

As for Christie, the details of this election should give him significant pause. If he tries to implement a second-term agenda with an eye toward conservative primary voters in Iowa, he risks losing the personal popularity that has carried him this far.