Posted on Mon, Oct. 6, 2008
When Sen. John McCain beat out more conservative opponents to win his party's nomination for president, the Republican leaders in Delaware County were elated - and relieved.
Here was one candidate, they said - a moderate, a maverick - who might win back a county that long has been dominated by Republicans on the local level but that has voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections.
Now this Republican hope is being tested from Ridley Park to Media to Springfield - and across the Philadelphia suburbs - amid an economic gloom that polls suggest may be a drag on McCain's chances.
"I'm just sick - sick of everything," said Nick Guacci, 60, of Prospect Park, a Republican who is wavering between voting for McCain or Democratic Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
A retired plumber, he said he liked McCain but held Republicans responsible for the Wall Street tumble that threatens his 401(k) savings plan. He jokingly derided Obama as "Osama," but said he may vote for him to get Republicans out of the White House.
Another Republican retiree, Francis Rosenstiehl of Essington said Obama wasn't experienced enough to be president. But he thinks that McCain, at 71, is too old. He said that if McCain's running mate, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, became president, she wouldn't be up to handling an economic crisis: "I don't want to see that lady take over.
"I'm still undecided," he said, "but I think I'm going to go with the Big O."
How many Republicans and independents think as Guacci and Rosenstiehl do may determine the outcome Nov. 4 in the key state of Pennsylvania.
Democrats have made huge gains since 2004 in voter registration, going from 34 percent of the county electorate to 42 percent. Together with independents, they now outnumber Republicans, who have 48 percent of registrants.
McCain clearly must improve on President Bush's track record. Bush lost three of Philadelphia's four Pennsylvania suburban counties - all but Chester County. In Delaware County in 2000, he lost to former Vice President Al Gore by 12 percentage points. In 2004, he lost to John Kerry by 15 points.
James E. Vike, associate professor of government and politics at Widener University, said that if Obama can't take the suburbs, where even many Republicans have more liberal social views than voters elsewhere, it would be "a bad sign for his potential across the state."
Several independent polls conducted by colleges and universities show Obama opening up a statewide lead of anywhere from 7 to 15 points.
Berwood A. Yost, director of opinion research at Franklin and Marshall College, said that voters who name the economy as their No. 1 issue prefer Obama over McCain by 53 percent to 29 percent.
"That's what is driving the vote, I think," Yost said.
Delaware County - with its mix of Main Line affluence, working-class struggle along the Delaware River, and middle-class aspiration in between - presents an interesting case study in the battle for suburbia.
Its history is Republican, top to bottom.
In the 1920s, the county's eastern boroughs and townships were filled with people taking advantage of the trolley lines running out of Philadelphia.
Philadelphia was then a Republican bastion, and the arrivals brought Republican affiliation with them. Decades later, when the city turned Democratic, the county remained true to the GOP.
This was a far different GOP from other suburban counties. It was blue collar, not white collar; rowhouse, not manor house.
Today, much of Delaware County retains its blue-collar character, which could be a boon to McCain. A national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press found that white residents with a high school education preferred McCain by large margins.
In blue-collar Ridley Park, Mark Scaperotto, 24, a painter at the Boeing helicopter plant, said he probably would vote for McCain.
He said of Obama: "I just don't think he's going to be ready for president. It just doesn't sound good that he's friends with the terrorists. Whether that's true or not, I don't know."
Weaker than in old days, the county GOP remains formidable. Though Democrats have made inroads, all five members of the Delaware County Council are Republicans. So are four-fifths of municipal officials.
The party turned out thousands for a Sept. 22 McCain-Palin rally in Media.
The county voted Republican for president in all but one election from 1900 through 1988. (In 1964, it favored Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater.) But since 1992, when Bill Clinton first ran, it has voted Democratic for president.
Analysts say that moderate suburbanites have felt out of touch with a more conservative Republican Party at the national level. That, along with continued migration from Philadelphia - mostly by Democrats - has made the difference.
This year, for the first time, Democrats and independents together outnumber Republicans by a small margin. Republicans make up 48 percent of the electorate; Democrats 42 percent.
Ian Kerry, a Pakistani immigrant, said that when he moved to Norwood 11 years ago, he found that "the people I knew were all Republicans." So he became one - and has voted Republican since.
But Kerry, who works for a credit-reporting agency, said he didn't know who would better handle the economic crisis. He said he loathed the $700 billion bailout plan for Wall Street. But without it, he said, credit could dry up. And that could cost him and his wife their jobs.
"I like McCain," he said, "He knows a lot about what it takes to run the country. But he's going to continue some of the Bush principles. I don't know how I'm going to vote."
Democratic strength in 2004 lay in the older communities south of Baltimore Pike, especially in black areas. John Kerry won in white working-class communities where McCain could have some opportunity this time.
Democrats also won in the leafy Radnor suburbs along the Main Line that were once thoroughly Republican.
Bush's strength was among the colonials and split-level houses of post-World War II areas such as Springfield and Middletown. He also won in the new developments of western Delaware County.
John Pepenelli of Drexel Hill, who was picking up dry cleaning last week in Springfield, said he "absolutely" favored McCain.
A retired computer operations director, he said, "I don't like Obama; I think he's arrogant. I think he's full of himself, and I don't think he's right for the country."
Like others, he said he was angry at Wall Street tycoons who helped bring on the market meltdown.
"These guys are getting ridiculous golden parachutes," he said. "A guy is president of a company when it goes under and he gets $20 million."
Clearly, voters are angry. The question is how it plays out Nov. 4.
Contact staff writer Tom Infield at 610-313-8205 or tinfield@phillynews.com.