Nutter's goals called necessary - and risky

Like a big-city equivalent of President Kennedy's call to send a man to the moon, Mayor Nutter set a series of almost impossibly ambitious goals for Philadelphia at his inauguration Monday.

Halve the dropout rate. Double the number of four-year degrees awarded to city residents. Cut the homicide rate by 30 percent to 50 percent. And do most of it within seven years.

Analysts called the scope and ambition of the agenda inspiring and even necessary.

But they said the goals were also fraught with political risks, particularly given that the mayor does not run the School District of Philadelphia or the region's colleges and universities.

"He seems to be relying a lot on his ability to motivate people who don't have to do what he says," said Joseph P. McLaughlin, a professor of political science at Temple University. "Mayors aren't emperors. They don't control everything."

Nutter acknowledged as much during his inaugural address. He posed his goal to double degree attainment as a "challenge to all of us." And immediately after calling for a halving of the dropout rate, Nutter talked up the "mutual commitment" he and Gov. Rendell had made to improve the schools.

In a way, analysts said, the limits on the mayor's authority are irrelevant. The city needs something to reach for, and it's up to the mayor to articulate a vision, even if its not wholly within his ability to make the changes needed to reach it.

"Without daring and lofty goals, you only inch your way forward," said G. Terry Madonna, a pollster at Franklin and Marshall College. "He's looking at the big problems: crime, education and jobs, and those are the issues the city needs to address to move forward."

Although it may seem that politicians issue pledges and promises with abandon, Nutter's goals differ from most both in their scope and in the hard deadlines and specific numbers he used.

Former Baltimore Mayor Martin O'Malley made a similarly wriggle-free pledge when elected in 1999, vowing to reduce the total number of homicide victims in the city to 175 or less. He fell well short of that mark. The murder count in O'Malley's eight years never dipped below 253.

The Baltimore press often reminded citizens that O'Malley never met his mark, and it became an issue when O'Malley later ran for governor in 2006. But residents of Baltimore seemed to appreciate his achievements in other areas, and crime did fall, though not as sharply as hoped.

"The public gave him credit for the progress he made. They knew he was going to work hard on crime, because that was his issue, they knew he was going to do all he could for that goal," said former Baltimore Mayor Kurt L. Schmoke, who preceded O'Malley.

Indeed, O'Malley was reelected mayor, and in 2006 won his race for governor.

Speaking about Nutter, Madonna said: "Citizens are fairly reasonable about expectations. There is a sense of urgency, and he does need to show some progress, but if he does, then I think the voters will be pretty content."

Nutter's most immediate goal is likely to be cutting the homicide rate, both because the public is clearly demanding action and because he has direct authority over the Police Department.

It also may be the most achievable of Nutter's goals.

"It's doable," said Fred Siegel, a onetime adviser to former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and a professor at Cooper Union. "Philadelphia's famous for setting a low bar, and Nutter sets a good framework with this, that it's not going to be a city of low expectations anymore."

As for the political gamble, "It's a risk, but it's a necessary risk that's essential to his success as mayor and the future of the city," said Siegel, who is also a contributing editor to City Journal.

It remains to be seen if voters will view Nutter's calls for exponential improvement in public education as a fair standard to judge his administration by, or if they will see it more as an aspirational target for the city as a whole. The same applies to Nutter's college-attainment goals.

But the experts have no doubt that voters will expect Nutter - and his new police commissioner, Charles H. Ramsey - to show progress on violent crime.

"It's going to be a benchmark that will stick with him, without any doubt," said David Mitchell, Delaware's secretary of safety and homeland security and former superintendent of the Maryland State Police. "Violent crime is the measure of big-city mayors."

And Nutter has supplied the ruler.