In Pa.'s 10th District, Democrat Carney hews to national strategy: Keep politics local

Democrats have a simple strategy to try to save their majority in the U.S. House: Turn the campaign into a localized choice instead of a referendum on unpopular Washington policies by discrediting your opponent early and often with harsh personal attacks.

In few places is the approach playing out more intensely than in Pennsylvania's 10th District, in the far northeastern corner of the state.

Endangered two-term Democratic Rep. Chris Carney has used his cash advantage to air ads that raise and amplify ethical questions about his Republican challenger, former U.S. Attorney Tom Marino.

"What's Tom Marino hiding?" began Carney's first TV ad, which went on the air Aug. 10.

It concerned Marino's writing a reference letter for a convicted felon, Louis DeNaples, who was seeking a state casino license. After that favor came to light in 2007, Marino left office and took a $250,000 job as in-house counsel for DeNaples' non-casino businesses.

Since then, Marino has changed his story about the sequence of events at least twice, and federal authorities have refuted his claim that he had Justice Department permission to vouch for DeNaples. Another recent Carney ad ended, "Marino: a personal reference for a felon? No wonder he lied about it."

From the beginning of the campaign, national Republicans placed Carney high on their list of targets. He represents a conservative-leaning district that has voted reliably Republican in presidential elections. When Carney won against a scandal-scarred opponent in 2006, he became the first Democrat to hold the seat since 1961.

"In this election cycle, Carney's best play is to localize the race and discredit Marino," said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the independent Rothenberg Political Report, which closely tracks and handicaps elections.

"Voters want change, and Carney can't fight that, but what he can do is make Marino an unacceptable alternative," Gonzales said. "That's what a lot of incumbents are trying; we'll just have to wait and see."

Tory Mazzola, spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee, said party strategists thought the 10th District was still a prime opportunity for the GOP to gain a seat. The NRCC has reserved two weeks of ad time before the Nov. 2 election for commercials on behalf of Marino.

Mazzola said of Carney's attacks: "Voters see it for what it is - Chris Carney being a desperate politician looking to save his career. He is willing to sling mud or do whatever he can to distract from his job-killing high-spending record."

Carney identifies with the Blue Dog caucus of fiscally conservative Democrats, opposes abortion rights, and has the endorsement of the National Rifle Association. He voted against the bailouts but supported the $787 billion stimulus and President Obama's health-care overhaul.

Both measures are unpopular in the district, and Carney's votes for them show that he is an out-of-touch partisan, Mazzola said.

But the recent blizzard of news coverage and ads raising new questions about the man Democrats have termed "Casino Marino" has made it much harder for the challenger to focus on the anti-Washington theme he wants to stress.

There is some evidence that Carney's attacks have shifted the race.

In early September, his campaign's internal polling, by Momentum Analysis, found that Marino was viewed favorably by 31 percent of likely voters and unfavorably by 17 percent. When the Carney campaign surveyed opinion last week, Marino's favorable rating had dropped to 28 percent, and his unfavorable had risen to 26 percent.

The polls are based on telephone interviews with 400 10th District voters who had cast ballots in at least four of the last six general elections. The margin of error was 4.9 percentage points.

Yet for all the ads and local news coverage, just 46 percent of voters in last week's poll said they planned to vote for Carney, with 38 percent backing Marino and 17 percent undecided.

"It's striking that even with all the hits Marino's taking . . . he's still in the game," Gonzales said. "It's just a tough district for a Democrat to hold when the wind is blowing in his face."

At the very least, Carney is that rare Democrat who has been able to counter the overriding narrative of the midterm elections, which centers on angst over the economy and concerns over federal spending.

Nationally, polls have shown Republicans with the advantage when voters are asked which party's nominee they plan to support in congressional races, although the gap is narrowing. And GOP supporters are seen as more likely to turn out.

In other races around the country, Democrats have gone on the attack by highlighting their Republican opponents' speeding tickets, domestic-violence charges, lawsuits, and business dealings.

In Ohio's 16th District, Republican Jim Renacci was slammed for late payment of $1.4 million in state taxes and interest. Republican nominee David Rivera in Florida's 25th District has faced reports that he ran a delivery truck off the road to prevent an opponent's literature from being mailed in a 2002 race.

DeNaples, who pleaded no contest in 1978 to federal charges of bilking the federal government out of storm aid, drawing fines and probation, was charged in 2008 with lying to state officials about his connections to criminals when he applied for the casino license. State prosecutors dropped those charges after DeNaples turned over his stake in the Mount Airy Casino Resort to family members.

Democrats had always planned to highlight the ethical questions surrounding Marino's dealings with DeNaples, but the candidate made it easier.

In April, Marino told WILK talk-show host Steve Corbett that he had informed his superiors at Justice and been given the go-ahead to give DeNaples a personal reference. The host later reported that Marino claimed off the air to have a letter to that effect.

Then, Marino told reporters that he had documents to prove he had permission to endorse DeNaples but that the Justice Department would not authorize their release. The Associated Press, citing anonymous Justice sources, said no such documents existed. On Tuesday, the (Sunbury) Daily Item reported that Marino said it was understood he could serve as a reference for people as long as he didn't use his office; Marino said the talk-show host made up the claim about a letter.

Furthermore, the Citizens Voice newspaper in Wilkes-Barre unearthed a Justice report in which a senior official recommended in 2006 that Marino be "pushed out" for unspecified "problems." Marino left in 2007, saying he wanted to work in the private sector; he has said the Justice report was meritless. Marino's first TV ad, which began running Sept. 22, touts the anticorruption prosecutions he headed.

Marino's campaign did not respond to requests for an interview with the candidate for this article.

Said Carney spokesman Josh Drobnyk, "The more the public gets to know Tom Marino, the more they understand that he lacks the essential qualities that people on all sides of the political spectrum deserve in an elected official: honesty, integrity, and competence."