While Gov. Corzine and Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie were hammering each other over spotty driving records and loans to subordinates and ex-girlfriends this summer, independent Chris Daggett was presenting platforms on the economy, the environment, and education, mostly to little fanfare.
But Daggett's profile has reached new heights in recent weeks after he unveiled a bold proposal to cut property, corporate, and income taxes, and expand the sales tax to professional and household services. He used his platform in the first televised gubernatorial debate to promote the plan and criticize his opponents for failing to offer specific plans.
A Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll released last week found that half of likely voters have heard of Daggett now, up from 33 percent one month ago. Fourteen percent of those polled named Daggett as the winner of the debate, to Corzine's 12 percent and Christie's 4 percent (most could not name a winner). When poll responders were asked which of the three they planned to vote for, Daggett gets 17 percent of the vote. The poll has a margin of error of 4 percentage points.
While Daggett's debate performance won glowing reviews in the media, he is still considered a long shot to win the governorship.
But with Corzine and Christie in a statistical dead heat just four weeks before the election, Daggett, 59, a brownfields remediator from Bernards Township, is almost certain to help determine who will be the next governor of New Jersey.
Daggett said he was not worried about playing the spoiler for either of his opponents. He says he can still win, and last week his campaign posted a Web page arguing that a vote for Daggett is not a wasted vote.
Even so, as Corzine's millions of dollars in negative ads have driven Christie's unfavorable ratings up, many political analysts now say Daggett will increasingly draw the support of independent voters - whose numbers outweigh Republicans and Democrats in New Jersey - who are dissatisfied with Corzine but cannot bring themselves to vote for Christie.
"Anything Daggett gets above 5 percent really looks like it's pulling from Christie," said Brigid Harrison, a political science professor at Montclair State University.
Harrison said Daggett did a good job of articulating traditional Republican values, such as cutting the size and scope of government, during the debate. In the Fairleigh Dickinson poll, twice as many Republicans called Daggett the winner of the debate compared with Christie.
While Daggett agreed during the debate that he might need to raise some taxes, such as the gasoline tax, "it was with clear goals in sight, and it looked like his plan was to have those tax increases be temporary," Harrison said.
As Corzine firms up the Democratic base, Harrison said, Daggett's message appears to be resonating with independents. "He comes across as a straight shooter, not worrying about the political fallout," Harrison said. "For some independents, that holds great appeal."
Quinnipiac University political scientist Maurice Carroll also has been watching Daggett's rise closely.
Carroll said Daggett's surge has been murdering Christie at the polls.
"Daggett is an unusual third-party candidate," Carroll said. "He's not an idealogue, he's not a kook. . . . You don't have to hold your nose to vote for Daggett. For Corzine, it's a beautiful situation."
Beyond that, Carroll said, Daggett has successfully steered the debate to his economic proposal and Christie's lack of one.
"His plan is what they talked about and now he's the thinking man's candidate," Carroll said.
Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky agreed that Daggett was helping Corzine. "I think he's underscoring Gov. Corzine's message that Chris Christie really has no plan," she said.
Roginsky said that by not offering specific proposals to address economic issues, Christie is talking down to voters.
"You can't run on the 'hey, trust me' vote," she said. "It's just insulting."
While most third-party and independent candidates see their numbers go down on Election Day as voters decide they don't want to waste a vote on someone they do not believe can win, Carroll says Daggett's number may hold up because he is so different from most other such candidates.
Daggett worked as Gov. Tom Kean's deputy chief of staff and commissioner of the Department of Environmental Protection, as well as the regional administrator for the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under President Ronald Reagan. He holds a doctorate in education and works in brownfields remediation, both as the owner of his own company and as a consultant.
Daggett said he changed his registration from Republican earlier this year, but that he has been dissatisfied with party politics for a long time. He leans left on some social issues such as abortion, gay marriage, stem-cell research, gun control, and medical marijuana in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans.
During his campaign, Daggett has argued it will take an independent candidate who is not beholden to special interests to reform Trenton and tackle the issues that matter most to residents, including property taxes and the $8 billion budget shortfall projected for next year.
Victories by third-party and independent candidates are uncommon but not unheard of. Daggett points to the example of former Maine governor Angus King Jr., a onetime public television host who was elected in 1994 and then reelected to a second term.
Republican strategist Bill Pascoe said that in terms of political strategy, Daggett has made the race a lot more more interesting.
"He's a new variable. It's like the difference between Chinese checkers versus regular checkers," he said.
Pascoe has argued in his blog on Congressional Quarterly's politics Web site that the best thing Corzine can do is to increase Daggett's name recognition, giving those who want to lodge a protest vote against the incumbent someplace to go other than Christie.
Daggett has one of the highest "conversion" rates Pascoe said he has ever seen - according to one poll, 75 percent of the people who know enough about Daggett to have an opinion about him plan to vote for him. Most winning candidates only have conversion rates of 50 to 60 percent, Pascoe said, although the high conversion rate can be attributed partly to the relatively small number of people who know about Daggett.
The big question now, of course, is how those numbers translate on Election Day.
"Do people say 'I'll still vote for Daggett' or do they say the flirtation is over - 'I dated Daggett, I'm going to marry Christie,' " Pascoe said.
Contact staff writer Adrienne Lu at 609-989-8990 or alu@phillynews.com.
|
|
|
|
|
|
MOST POPULAR PHILLY.COM PHOTOS
Daily Headlines
Subscribe now! Daily Headlines Newsletter
Philly.com news blogs
Philly.com Promotions
